As City boss Glenn Roeder sits down today and laps up some early spring sunshine on the Canaries mini-training break in Spain, there is one thing of which you can be sure.
He knows each and every one of Norwich's remaining fixtures like the back of his hand; every possible point and permutation, every potential twist and turn between now and the first week in May will have been pondered and dissected.
This is, after all, a manager who knows exactly where Norwich would now be in the league had the Championship season started on November 1 and not August 11. And after watching his side take their recent points tally to 36 from an available 54 – bang on that magic two-point-per-game mark – with Saturday's 1-0 win over Barnsley, Roeder knows exactly where this season could still head.
And why, when the dust finally settles, they might fall a couple of games short of the finishing line.
“The start we've given everyone… when the league kicked off on Saturday, we started Sunday…” he was heard to murmur on Saturday night.
For work on hitting that two-point-per-game average for the Canaries' remaining 12 Championship games and Norwich will, at best guess, finish with 69 points – historically, a game or two short of the 72-stroke-73 point mark that can sneak you into that sixth and final play-off place.
West Ham United finished sixth on 73 points in 2004-2005; Ipswich Town and Crystal Palace finished on a similar tally in 2003-2004.
For the record, when Norwich themselves slipped into that final play-off spot by the narrowest of margins in 2002, they still finished the season with 75 points.
Beat that two-point-per-game return – there are, after all, 36 points still left up for grabs and therefore the chance to finish with 81 points on the board – and it is, of course, still possible.
But in reality, 101 things need to fall Norwich's way – not least for that sixth spot to have an unusually low points total come that first weekend in May. Given the manner in which each and every team appears capable of a wobble – with all three of the newly-relegated teams Watford, West Bromwich Albion and Charlton Athletic all less than certain of an automatic return to the top flight – so a 71 or 72 point finish may yet be enough for the last and final play-off slot.
But the Canaries have absolutely no margin for error. Which may do much to explain why Roeder would hail Saturday's 1-0 win over the Tykes as “his most satisfying yet” as City boss. With three big players out suspended, he knew that one false move by his clutch of on-loan Premiership starlets would start to make the play-off maths look impossible – even for someone as resolutely upbeat and positive as himself.
Three points, however, and the numbers continued to make sense. Just.
“I work game to game. It's all you can do. Win the next three points,” said Roeder afterwards, refusing to draw his gaze above and beyond this weekend's home clash with Blackpool.
Or at least, in public. In private and you can bet your last dollar, he has done his sums. After all, in that direction lies membership of a very exclusive club – managers that have taken a club bottom of the table and six points short of safety in the middle of November to in the play-offs by the first week in May.
And after that, of course, anything can happen.
“We obviously need other results around us to go our way. And I think, to be perfectly honest, it's a little bit out of our hands. All we can do is win the next game and see what happens with the other results elsewhere around the country,” added Roeder.
Hence his delight at seeing Blackpool beat Charlton 5-3 at Bloomfield Road this weekend – that's not the form of certain play-off contenders. Ipswich's recent home wobble will have given him hope; West Bromwich Albion aren't quite the steam-roller all imagined.
Both the Baggies and leaders Stoke City have still to come to Carrow Road – the mid-week Potters clash in a fortnight's time is likely to be a must-see – while Norwich have still to travel to Watford, Bristol City and, of course, the neighbours before the end.
Keep hitting that two-point-per-game average in among that little lot – and keep your fingers crossed that everyone else keeps taking points off eachother – and the dream isn't dead yet.
“We've got quite a few teams to play that are above us at the moment, so in that respect it is a little bit in our hands,” said Roeder on Saturday night, before jetting out with his troops for one final re-charge of the batteries before the final desperate surge towards the finishing line begins in earnest with this weekend's visit of Blackpool.
After that, it is the full roller-coaster – straight into Watford (a) on the Tuesday night, off to Coventry on Saturday, home to Stoke City in the real hum-dinger on the Tuesday…
In amidst that there will be precious little chance for anyone to catch their breath. Which is why everyone needs to take huge, great lungfuls of that soft, warm Spanish air this week. They'll need it.