If there is one thing you learn doing this job for the last 20 years, it is never taking anything for granted.
Never assume anything; two plus two rarely, if ever, equals four. And, more often than not these days, don’t believe a word anyone says in public. Or rather recognise the positions people tend to adopt as these situations ‘play out’.
And, likewise, remember that beneath the glossy veneer of the English Premier League, it’s a nasty, brutal street-fight. As Colchester United discovered when Norwich last came a-calling. And that’s when they were in League One.
Now the Canaries are seriously tooled up. When David McNally says the Canaries will fight ‘tooth and nail’ to keep hold of their manager he won’t be straying too far from the truth.
So the expected exit of Villa chief Alex McLeish this afternoon and the immediate installation of Canary boss Paul Lambert as the bookies’ top tip for the vacancy needs to be seen in the context of the above.
Start by expecting the unexpected. And when the expectation is that he will walk into the job at Villa Park, don’t be afraid to expect the opposite.
I would still expect Lambert to seek pastures new this summer – his whole tenor and actions yesterday screamed as much – but don’t taking anything as read. For a number of reasons.
I have to admit it was only last night that I poked around the exact circumstances of Martin O’Neill’s exit from Villa. It didn’t end well would be the short answer.
In fact, it ended very badly as a determined Martin threatened to drag Villa and their American owner Randy Lerner through the courts.
Given Martin’s forensic mind and acute appreciation of the law and its interpretation within the English legal system, that can’t have been a pleasant ride for the Villa hierarchy.
In the end, it was settled at arbitration; only the third such occasion that a managerial exit had reached such a point. Before then, it had necessitated nine months of increasingly bitter legal wrangling before the two parties finally resolved their differences after he walked out on the club ten days before the start of the 2010-2011 season.
At stake appeared to be the club’s willingness to match their ambitions with his, as Gareth Barry and James Milner headed for the Etihad. Villa were suddenly a selling club; that they remain. It was not, you sensed, what O’Neill had signed up for.
Listen to McLeish’s final Press conference again yesterday and unless Lerner and his chief executive Paul Faulkner have completely changed their stance, the new Villa boss will be expected to ‘trade’ his way up the table.
Which is why I start to wonder if Lambert and Villa are, actually, ideally-suited.
Given that the Scot still refers to O’Neill as ‘The Gaffer’ and the pair will clearly discuss his next managerial move, will O’Neill be recommending Lambert take Lerner’s tightened purse?
Equally, of course, will Lerner and Faulkner be keen to lumber themselves with O’Neill’s heir apparent – however compelling his recent track record is?
Lambert is, after all, not the only bright young thing to impress this season; Roberto Martinez’ achievements at Wigan put him firmly on the ‘Most Wanted’ list; ditto Mr Swansea.
Of course, life would have been so much easier had Harry been granted the England job and then a ‘Situation Vacant’ sign would have appeared at White Hart Lane where money is far less of a problem.
That might then – finally – have given David Moyes some cash to splash as he stepped up a gear from Everton, leaving Goodison Park as another destination for the Martinez’ and Lamberts of this world.
Neither, I suspect, would be much taken with the vacancy that now exists at The Hawthorns.
Of course, given that Lambert will be seeking to squeeze every last penny out of the board this summer, waving a big stick over their head in the shape of ‘I’m off to Villa then…’ is a trick they all play. Nigel Worthington pulled out the ‘I’m off to Sheffield Wednesday then…’ card in the midst of his contract negotiations.
That all said, I think there is fast coming a point when all parties recognise that the time might be ripe for a move; it would be an even more remarkable achievement for Norwich to better 12th next season.
Given how much money talks anywhere from eighth upwards, the thought must be crossing Lambert’s mind that if all he can hope for is ninth whilst a resurgent Newcastle and the Moyes-led Everton join the usual suspects in the top six then maybe now is the time to jump – whilst his stock is still so clearly in the ascendant.
That I – and, I think, the great majority of Canary fans – ‘get’.
But whether Villa ‘get’ Lambert is, for now, still a moot point. Whatever the bookies claim.
Hey, Villa fan here.
Personally I don’t think we’ll have Lambert next season, he’s a great manager but I just don’t think it’ll happen.
Both Houllier and McLeish were appointed out of the blue for us neither had much mention for the job until it happened.
I think Martinez is more likely, and we’ll probably enquire for him again, if he comes or not is a different matter.
Best of luck to Norwich for next season, great team & club.
A.MON,was told to reduce the wage bill and move on some of the deadwood he had signed on £50k+ a week and threw his toys out the pram (as usual), B. Milner asked for a move, C. the court case was to silence Villa of his recklessness and division of the squad through favouritism to protect his CV and his own Ego….. Lambert is a very different manager to MON in many ways and will also know all of MON’s faults.
The thing is if Lambert gives us another season or two and manages to be just as successful he could really prove his credentials, I mean really prove them and go on to manage a very big team not a Villa.
People will no longer be able to suggest tired cliches such as our momentum, hunger and naivety have seen us over the line.
For a manager who clearly thrives on a challenge that surely could be the proof beyond doubt the footballing world needs to confirm his emergence as a top top manager. There’s no doubt the second season will be tough I just hope Lambert and Culverhouse want to finish their job in style and not leave after just one season in the top flight.
A cup run and higher qualification would really make people take notice. Then we could really give Lambert our blessing to take a top four job. Definitely not a Villa!
Of course we can speculate over PL’s future but I would not be as pessimistic about him moving on as you.
As you suggest, the question is what position might be more attractive? You give plenty of reasons why Villa may not be it – and frankly Villa seems the most likely of those that finished below us.
What about above? Really only the top 8 should be that interesting and where might he realistically go there? I have worried about some sort of power sharing with Dalglish at Liverpool. Spurs now have no vacancy and so who would be moving?
But 2 points show that this is out of our hands. Who would blame him for going somewhere that was a genuine current step up for his ambitions? Certainly not me. And who would blame him for following his heart – wherever it leads him! It’s PL’s life and he has to lead it.
And one point not yet addressed – where does our finish this season leave us as an investment opportunity? We have not heard anything recently about Delia and co’s wish to sell/scale down their investment. What possibility that PL does not have to move for the money – but that it moves towards him?
All I hope is that mt optimism is not punctured anytime soon and PL is at Norwich come the new season! ILWT
All the talk seems to surround money, as normal. The football powers are introducing restrictions to the amount of debt that a club is allowed to run at, so this is a problem looming for the likes of Man City. That said Paul Lambert will be well aware of this and with the financial health of NCFC being on the increase, another season in the Premier League finishing mid-table will see ground enlargement, adding to our being in the top half of attendance figures in the league, and the increase in cash that will bring why would he want to leave right now, after all when he arrived he bought into a 7 year plan, and, as we all saw with the Harry Redknapp for England cry and the decline in Spurs’ fortunes to be a really proven manager the success must be sustained for more than a 2 or 3 seasons.
I think Paul Lambert will be here next season, the ceiling at Carrow Road has not been reached and there’s still potential here to realise.
I wonder whether St Paul will recognise the dangers of the Owen Coyle approach to jumping to a ‘bigger established premier league club’. Success is not automatic.
Norwich do provide St Paul with lots of home comforts which I’m sure he will recognise, though I do think we have to be prepared for the worst. And, if he does go I for one will not have any bitterness, just a great deal of thanks and gratitude for saving NCFC.
There will be pressure on Lambert to make up his mind quickly whether he is staying or leaving. Players are out of contract and we need to compete for the most suitable bosman signings.
The City project is only half complete. Two great signings in the transfer window give promise for next season. And with a season’s experience in the Premiership, players like Bennett, Pilkington and Fox will surely get even better. With Wes, Holty Ruddy and Russell Martin at the top of their game, City should do at least as well as in 2011-12.
I would not be surprised if PL wanted to hear of other offers BUT I would be surprised if he decided to go. Fingers crossed……
There is clearly a BIG assumption being made that Paul Lambert will move to another Premier League job? He’s moved overseas before – so perhaps he’s thinking about going back to Germany or somewhere else in Europe and challenging for a national trophy. After all, if Steve McLaren can win one then there must be opportunities for Paul Lambert and his team. If Lambert moves to manage another Premier League club then I think it would need to be a top club that has to come calling… and he’d need to have won something elsewhere first – so set that as his objective for his one-after-next move – and consider where he could go now to win trophies and then you might be looking in the right place? My call would be he’s considering Europe.
Oh, and if Lambert does leave – can we get Stuart Pearce after he’s dumped from the England setup. He’s surely someone to take our squad of young hopefuls and help them achieve their potential.
Only one person will know what’s on his mind, and that is Paul Lambert. He will know what he wants to do, and when he’s made his mind up nobody will stop him. I personally don’t believe that Villa will be right for him especially as ‘The Gaffer’ will no doubt fill him in on the situation at Villa should Paul decide to speak to Martin O’Neill.
If Mr Lambert reads the websites I would say: ‘If you decide to go, do it now so that we have a chance of finding a decent replacement, and who can make his own mind up about those who are out of contract at the end of June. If you’re staying come out and say so!’
Lambert’s honesty (in saying he was unsure he’d still be here next season) as oppossed to the standard cliched responses from Martinez & Hughton (not thinking of moving – yeah right!) have led us all to believe he’s on his way. And as much as we might argue otherwise, Villa is a bigger club with a bigger fan base (a key element in PL’s reasons for jumping from Colchester to us), so it would be no surprise to see him move there. Does he see it as a chance to step out from the shadow of his mentor (the “gaffer) and be seen to have achieved success where MON struggled?
MON – a great legal mind! Ha Ha Ha
I’m sure MON is a smart man, but he didn’t finish his law degree! I did and I’m not sure I’d class myself as a great legal mind.
Personally I think MON would recommend the Villa job to Lambert. For MON, Lambert at Villa would be the chance to resucitate the reputations of some of his signings eg Warnock, Collins who haven’t lived up to their fees in recent seasons. For Lambert it is a penultimate level club that players want to join. Taking the Villa job could make him a contender for one of the big five jobs.