There’s little left to say in the debate around Chris Hughton’s strategy and future options that hasn’t already been said. A blank weekend – for reasons too obvious and painful to mention – gave bloggers (yep, me included), messageboard users, tweeters and ‘facebookers’ alike the chance to dissect the rights and wrongs of playing ‘two up top’, the diamond, five in midfield and ‘parking the bus’.
Other than to conclude we all see things differently, and we all know better than Hughton, we’re obviously no further forward – nothing surprising about that conclusion other than it proves football fans are indeed human..
About the only thing we all agree on is that, from somewhere, we need to find a winning formula. The consequences of not doing so are really not worth considering.
With the fortnight throwing up little news of note for the Club’s web team – Jacob Butterfield’s loan extension at Crystal Palace taking star billing on the official site – the ad banner reminding us that tickets are still available Saturday’s Everton game loomed rather larger than normal.
With a day or two remaining for those wishing to purchase said tickets there is still a chance that Carrow Road will again be ‘sold out’ – often dependent on the visitors filling their allocation – but given Everton’s unofficial status as ‘the best of the rest’ it’s more than a little telling that this should be the case.
While there remain a few rather large hurdles to negotiate before they reserve their place in next season’s Premier League, if successful City enter ‘year 3’ of their top flight adventure – the year Chairman Alan Bowkett originally stated would be the one in which the Carrow Road expansion begins.
Subsequent comments by Messrs Bowkett and McNally have suggested that this particular deadline has been slipped, but still with an underlying caveat that it will happen in the short to medium term – finances permitting.
But given the apparent trend toward a levelling off of Carrow Road demand will it be warranted? Do we need a stadium that holds circa 32,000?
As much as I’d love to frequent a stadium with four sides of a similar stature – the current lop-sided look reminds me of the old Filbert Street – and one that’s tad more aesthetically pleasing, if we had 32,000 seats it’s by no means certain we’d be able to fill them regularly.
Naturally, the visits of the Manchester Utd, Arsenal and co are virtually guaranteed to sell-out almost regardless of the ground’s capacity – but take, for example, Wigan on a cold Tuesday night.
Wouldn’t happen would it.
If having a few empty seats is the only price to pay for having a bigger stadium – assuming it’s not impacting on the Club’s ability to repay any financing – it wouldn’t be the end of the world. I wouldn’t expect there to be huge swathes of yellow seats on view akin to the 16,000 blue ones on view at the home of those Championship strugglers. In fact it’s hard to imagine any set of circumstances that would cause such an alarming sight in the fine city.
No, the main issue this old worrier has with a ground expansion is the potential it may have to reduce attendances. May sound odd, but imagine having 32,000 seats to fill, but with say, 16,000 season tickets holders (bear with me). To use poor old Wigan as the example again – would such a fixture be likely to attract 10,000 casual supporters? No, I don’t think so either – the result being a crowd of less than our existing capacity.
Some will argue this to be counter-balanced by the previously mentioned full-houses and perhaps they have a point, but given the Club’s break-even point will be substantially higher – with the servicing of debt back on the agenda – it will again come down to pure mathematics.
At previous AGMs, the City board have cited a study that had revealed sufficient latent demand in the city and its environs to justify the expansion, but the world – and the desire to follow City’s Premier League journey – is ever changing.
With the number of available season-tickets currently capped at around the 20,000 mark – another 1800 reportedly on the waiting list – much of the existing high demand is borne of the limited supply. A bigger stadium would virtually ensure any City fan who wanted a ticket for a home game could get one.
No longer would a City season-ticket be the ‘must-have’ – the golden ticket that guarantees its holder a first hand view of the English game’s finest. Instead, those in the fortuitous position of being able to afford it, could pick and choose their games, safe in the knowledge that giving the Stokes, Wigans and Readings a swerve would have no impact on their ability to acquire tickets when the big boys are in town. Hence my earlier ‘finger in the air’ estimate of 16,000 season-ticket holders with an expanded stadium.
Some point to the current waiting list; citing that they would automatically swell the number of season-ticket holders if the ceiling were lifted and the ground were bigger. Again, possibly true but one suspects many of the 1800 on the list frequent Carrow Road regularly courtesy of purchasing the horribly-named casual tickets, and are therefore already part of the equation.
Throw into the mix the logistical issues of rebuilding the City stand, particularly if the existing structure were deemed not fit for purpose and needed to be knocked down. With so few spare seats in the ground where would its existing incumbents sit when the building work was in progress? Where would Delia and Michael sit? Where would the players change? Would we need a return of the 1985 Portacabins?
All which of course means nothing if the class of 2012/13 are unable to retain their place at the Premier League table, but let’s for now imagine they do.
Assuming Michael, Delia and co are able to extricate themselves from the potentially heartbreaking loss of their favourite seats, they have one massive decision to make.
Would we all like a bigger stadium? Almost certainly
Can we justify the expansion? Possibly
Would it represent a gamble? You bet.
So,over to you ladies and gentlemen of the board… no pressure.
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Lets not expand the stadium, push for return of safe standing areas,say barclay lower and f/g block for visitors, should give us another two/three thousand customers ok this would not make a great deal of difference to visitors as they stand anyway, if sucessful we could then try n+p in future standing, as long as disigned for safety
Joe
Take a look at wolves. Just finished a new stand upping the stadium to circa 32000 but relegation to and possibly from the championship has reduced the average attendance to less than 22000. That’s 10000 seats not being filled with all of the extra capacity not adding the revenue that they were planned to bring in.
Joe, do you really that dreaded word ‘Health and Safety’ would allow a further 2-3 thousand people in the concourse area of the Lower Barclay than at present? I’ll tell you know: they won’t.
Standing areas would not allow for increase in capacity n this day and age. It would merely allow the existing patrons to stand rather than sit.
For this reason, I do not feel this will ever go ahead as there is no economic benefit that the club would be able/allowed to make should it change to ‘safe’ standing.
Sacrilege I know but what about a new 30,000 capacity stadium on the A47 with free parking and a shuttle service from the city (your match ticket would be your bus ticket too, like here in Germany)? I am an exile who has problems getting tickets at the moment. I agree that the interest in the lower category games seems to be waning, hopefully some of the TV riches would be invested in making tickets a bit cheaper…
Great article spot on. I really cannot see any justification for serious expansion at present and agree that extra capacity could indeed reduce both season ticket numbers and attendances.
couldn’t justify it if it was my money.
Sorry Jason, but no, that would be a disaster in my view. A small 2000 capacity Speedway track at The Showground has recently all but been turned down due to unwanted noise and traffic on 2 nights a week. On this basis, I doubt a 35,000 seat stadium would cruise through planning.
Let’s be honest, the current Carrow Road has plenty of room for us to expand as much as we need. It was only those clubs locked in and unable to expand further who had no other option but to relocate out of town. Carrow is not hemmed in whatsoever. In theory, any of our 4 stands could be knocked down and replaced by a bigger version in the future.
No need for us to jump on that particular bandwagon completely needlessly.
I see the little old norwich attitude is alive and well. If we are ever to progress as a football club we must expand the ground. I think 32000 would be about right for the time being.
We may not always fill it now but in 5-6 years if still at the top table.
The argument above about a decrease in season ticket holders with the increase in size i find a nonsense. You say that a number of season ticket holders and those on the waiting list will relinquish their tickets in favour of attending occational big games. Well that forgets 2 very important points; firstly the loyalty and will of most season ticket holders to support the club and attend every game possible on that journey and secondly and perhaps more importantly. Have you seen the prices charged for the casual tickets? For Manure, citeh etc these will near enough double the charge to the season ticket holder per game and still not offer a cast iron garantee of a seat leave alone a good one, together with as many friends who wish to attend.
More over I believe that the club is now so well run that any debt incurred in the expansion of CR will be managed well and only a limited risk.
What if we are relegated, well we were still filling CR in lge1 so we will survive.
As for moving from CR, I can not imagine a worse move and agree with what John has said above.
Re Damien: Good point about how well the club is run and I agree, we’re better placed now to consider expansion than we ever have. If you’ve read my column in the past you’ll know I’m no supporter of ‘little Norwich’ syndrome – quite the opposite in fact – but am merely conscious of the inherent risks in taking on such a costly expansion. That’s all.
Like most of us, I’d dearly love to see us moving forward with a bigger stadium and crowds of 30,000+…
Although big crowds can generate fantastic atmosphere to support the team and intimidate the opposition, because of the huge TV income, the gate revenue becomes increasingly insignificant – unless you get relegated, when the extra punters may drop off a bit anyway.
The other side of the coin is the gloomy spectacle of empty spaces when the opposition is less attractive and home form is poor.
Suppose a second tier on the City stand brings 5000 extra seats. If the average price is say £30 then the additional revenue for 20 games, assuming all seats are sold out, is 20 x 30 x 5000 equals 3 million. That’s not a lot in the PL scheme of finances, and then there is the cost of the capital sum or loan to account for, before considering making a sensible return on the investment.
Can anybody from a construction industry background give some estimate or guidance as to what it would cost to put that second tier up-assuming no more boxes but just extra seating capacity?
That will enable us to put the 3 million revenue per annum in context and make a judgement as to whether it makes any financial sense to proceed or not.
after todays result things look fairly rosy. I believe a new stand would be filled because of the huge increase in TV money will inevitably bring a higher standard of footballer to City, and to all the other prem clubs. More entertainment therefore. If we go down after next season (assuming we stay up this year) the gulf between us and the rest of the established championship sides will be huge, thereby almost guaranteeing us an early return to the Prem and plenty of full houses on the way. Sounds a bit arrogant, but thems the facts as they say!