Life is a little tough for us City types right now. No doubt about it. And, as my colleague James Kent alluded to earlier, tomorrow will likely see as many eyes focused on the technical area as on the pitch.
But, having tweeted earlier of the need to put ‘political’ differences aside ahead of tomorrow’s crunch game, it may be an opportune moment to scrape together a few positives amongst the doom and gloom. And believe it or not, there are some.
A few weeks ago we gave the floor to a confirmed ‘outer’, Dave Bowers.
He provided us with a statistical analysis from which he concluded the best way forward for Norwich City FC was to wave cheerio to Chris Hughton and his team.
For the sake of balance – and in a week that has seen the clamour for change taken to a whole new level – another of our regular ‘commenters’, Russell Saunders, has provided us with some data that supports the opposite view.
Russ, in search of some evidence for the defence, has compiled a ‘mini’ Premier League comprising the bottom twelve (from Southampton downwards) based on the games those teams have played against each other.
It makes for an interesting read and, events at Fulham and Everton aside, does provide some ‘meat’ for those urging patience and restraint.
It also highlights how poor City have been against the top eight, with just one single point having been gained from those games. And if to make it worse it was earned on the season’s opening day, against Everton. Five months without even as much as a draw against the big boys is quite telling.
The flip-side of course is that we have enjoyed relative success against those around us – which certainly puts a positive spin on the likely outcome tomorrow.
Unsurprisingly, Southampton lead the mini-table but City are second with 19 points. Also on 19 points are Fulham, but City’s superior goal difference (can’t believe I’m writing that) of +4 puts us comfortably ahead of those from the Cottage.
Can you see where this is going?
Any anomalies caused by the disparity in games played (they range from 11 to 14) have been ironed out by Russ calculating ‘points per game’; City remaining in second.
All of which provides a warmish glow to City’s quest to conjure up circa 20 points from the next 18 games.
With ten of those games against our mini-league peers there is a decent argument that more of the same will be sufficient to limp to safety, although one suspects a win and a few draws will be required when locking horns with the elite to reach the magical 40 points.
In truth, what this interpretation highlights more than anything is just how nip and tuck it is in the bottom half of the Premier League. Between City and Crystal Palace there are seven places and just three points – a fair representation of the Premier League proper.
For all the fears over City’s future at the top table it is clear there is little more than a Rizla paper between the bottom eleven; every defeat likely to see City plummet, every win just as likely to see them soar. For that we need to brace ourselves.
And regardless of the rights and wrongs, and the whys and wherefores of Team Hughton the sooner the win-less run is ended the better. With tomorrow’s opponents one of only three ‘mini-league’ opponents to have beaten City what better time to get that win.
Hopefully the Carrow Road mood will be conducive to a good performance, but talk of banners and protests suggest it is unlikely to be ideal. My biggest fear however is of an early goal for the visitors – one that will turn the atmosphere as toxic as on that infamous afternoon in 2006 when Burnley were the visitors.
We can only hope the sight of Jonas Gutierres in yellow and green will lighten the mood sufficiently for the team to be afforded 100% backing in those crucial early stages. A high-octane opening with City on the front foot would be perfect and if an early goal could be chucked in for good measure that would be even better.
Is that too much to ask?
Either way I sincerely hope any discontent is put aside for 90 minutes and the team are at least given a platform on which to perform.
The time for excuses has long gone. The time to deliver is now.
We don’t just play against the bottom sides, this is not a balanced view, the league table is along with full statistics of recent weeks.
I find it a bit sad that the only support this manager can get is by telling half a story, that is where we are now.
Hope your right but having searched for solace among stats and probabilities as Australia chased down England’s total this morning, not completely convinced.
It’s an interesting analysis but the only one that counts is the table including all 20 teams.
The best context I can relate to at the moment is driving a car. Usually, you’re looking out of the wide windscreen before you, it looks clear ahead, but there’s always the need to look behind in the rear view mirror. Suddenly, one defeat at Everton, with Sunderland and West Ham winning away, the rear view mirror is the size of the windscreen and the front view has become the size of the rear view mirror and no one can see a clear way forward to safety!
OTBC
The debate about the future of Chris Hughton has been complicated by the issues which came with him in 2012. First some could not accept that Lambert had walked out and any successor was unworthy. Second, he was not a popular choice because of his lack of a reputation for attacking football.
The situation was made worse by calls – partly stimulated by Canary call – for Hughton to go early in the season. This has had a generally depressing effect on the atmosphere at the club and left me with the feeling that some have been too eager to use recent results to damn the manager.
It is not Hughton’s fault that at key periods in the season he has lost big players from the team. This is especially true in midfield where Tettey Howson and Fer threatened to become the best combination available. Added to this the injuries to Pilkington, Bennett and Snodgrass and it is not surprising that the team has not been creating sufficient chances.
Of course all clubs need to be able to cope with injuries but it has meant that the team has not been able to develop a consistent pattern of play.
Most concerning has been the defensive fragility. But is it the manager’s fault that last season’s player of the season has not been on his game – possibly through lack of fitness? I was appalled by Daryl Russell’s comment’s after the Fulham game. We rested more first choices than Fulham but still might have taken the lead. The pattern of play was disappointing and the inability to defend for the goals was sad. But I felt that the makeshift team did show some good touches. Fulham supporters told me they were impressed by the way in which City tried to press high up the pitch. The disadvantage of this usually welcome tactic was that we were vulnerable to counter attacks from which their goals came.
If Fer, Olsson and Hooper are fit and raring to go tomorrow the team selection will have been justified.
Let the team and Manager have our support and let us see where that can take us. OTBC
The mini-league never lies. Those at the top stay up. However, I wouldn’t include Southampton as they are on 30 points. And that takes 3 points off us
Cheers to MFW and Gary for putting up the fruits of my labours.
I’m not trying to defend poor performances, unedifying style and dearth of goal mouth action. If you’ve paid hard-earned cash and travelled to Carrow Road or much further and not been entertained by the yellow & green clad side, then by heck you have every right to protest at the ‘state-of-play’. These things concern me just as much as the most avid of outers out there.
There’s no substitute for form and confidence but let’s take a deep breath and digest where we stand after 21 games in the ‘real’ league we’re in. Last season at the same stage we were 14th in the ‘mini-PL’ on 16 points (10th on 23 under Lambert – having played 1 more game). The highest placed side in the mini-PL to ultimately go down was Wolves who were 15th after 21 games – arguably because they ditched their experienced man in charge and left his lieutenant in charge. There’s a lesson for us.
The 2013-14 mini-PL says to me that Sunderland, West Brom, Cardiff and Palace fans should be most worried – West Ham too as they have played two more than anyone else against the bottom 12.
If we start to lose to these teams (especially at home..i.e. Hull), then we are in the doo-doo, but I believe sticking with Chris Hughton is the best option for this season. At the end, some serious conversations at the top have to take place as to whether he should remain for 2014-15.
I agree with Russell and Douglas on this. I think too many City fans expected that playing in the Premier League would be a follow-on from success in League One and the Championship. Wimbledon survived in the PL for years by winning the key games in the ‘mini-league’. Wins against the top teams grab the headlines, but they aren’t the ones that secure survival. Tomorrow’s game is typical – win it and City could be level on points with 10th place. Lose it and we could be in the relegation zone.
If booing and banners come out tomorrow, relegation could have much more to do with the fans than any other consideration. Having supported City for over 40 years, my view is that it has always been a battle in the top league. I have to wonder if some City fans are up to that sort of battle. I hate hearing boos at Carrow Road because it questions that commitment. Are we the Yellow Army or aren’t we? OTBC!
Really interesting read, and whatever your opinion on it, MFW should be commended for consistently writing thought provoking pieces.
I’m not going tomorrow. I don’t want to be appalled by my fellow fans, as I was that day versus Burnley. It just saddens me that people can be so nasty.
I have to say Gary, that mini table has given me a boost, but unlike many of our so-called fans, I give my team and manager 100% support.
All this booing and banner-waving is counter-productive to we true fans!
I’m going to stop now because I’m likely to tell these Hughton-out morons exactly what I think of them for bringing my club into disrepute! Let’s hope we can turn things around before they turn us into the next Blackburn!
Before someone picks me up on it, I will admit to an error – West Ham should read 3 wins and so drop to 14 points (I mistakenly included their unfeasible 3-0 win at Spurs).
John(5) – including Southampton? It’s only their 2nd season in the PL so a bit early to elevate them to the big boys. I’d say that makes our win over them even more impressive. Not including them would drop Lambert’s lot down to 14 points!
I think it’s highly unlikely that we will see ‘shock’ results such as Villa beating Arsenal or Man City, Cardiff beating Man City, Hull beating Liverpool etc in the second half of the season with the big clubs going for CL places. Therefore the results between the bottom 12 will decide who stays up and who drops.
Something this table does not show but is important, is that of the bottom half teams in the PL, we only play 3 more at home.
Last season we picked up 10+ pts. from top half teams. Without them we would have been relegated. So far this season we’ve picked up 1.
So we either have to start playing against the big guns and getting points, or play out of our skin at home and away against the mini league for survival.
If we fail to win just one of our home games against the bottom half teams we are in massive trouble.
(9) Hughton Out Morons!
That’s charming my friend.
I think Hughton should go, and have done for a while, but it is a position formed over 18 months of watching some of the most stagnant, souless, unadventurous football ive ever seen a Norwich side play, from one of the strongest playng squads ive ever known us have. Why is that moronic?
Exiled in Aus for 9 years now, when i moved over here i would stay up in the small hours listening of to the radio coverage. Now with the premier league worldwide domination absolute i can watch virtually every Norwich game live in HD yet i can no longer be arsed too…Its so depressing, particularly for the away games.
I can only imagine whats it like for our loyal away support to have to fork out for the exhorbitant ticket prices/travel costs to watch what our side so regularly dishes up on the road. I hardly think theyre bringing our club into disrepute when they boo.
To be honest if the future for Norwich is Hughton and our sole ambition is to finish above the relegation places, have no serious interest in the cups every season, playing this style of football i think my divorce from the game will just about be complete!
Dave B(11) – as always your point is selective i.e. you fail to give any smidgeon of credit for or reference to the wins at Stoke and West Brom and the fact that the only team in the bottom 12 we’ve lost to on out travels is Hull (months ago)..and that was down to a dodgy penalty and them going to ten men with over an hour to play one could strongly argue.
I’m confident that Hughton knows his Kipling…”while all around are losing their heads…”
As a “Hughton out moron”, I dont need banner waving or booing to support my view.The evidence is before your eyes every time Norwich have played this season,with the odd exception of a 20 min or so good spell.The rest has been sterile,little or no movement off the ball (or ideas on it!,poor control, lack of penetration,inability to use players’ strengths (yes ,there are some),and general malaise -which I can only think comes from a system which the players are not happy with.
I hope that changes today but I fear we are incapable of arresting the decline under this regime.
Still,as a moron,what do I know!
@Ray (13)
I don’t think I should have to mention our two wins away in every post I make.
The reality is this… Win % by season:
11/12 31.57%
12/13 26.32%
13/14 23.81%
Just for context, Roeder’s win % the season he was sacked was 25.92%. The win % went up after his departure, but the damage was done. Overall Roeder had over a 30% win record with the club.
I don’t remember too many fans sticking up for his results though.
Dave B-11:Points against the top 8 sides are a bonus – not essential/important as you make out. Wigan took 4 last season and went down, Bolton/Blackburn took 6 in 2011/12 and went down and Blackpool took 9 in 2010/11 and…
We don’t have to “play out of our skin home and away…” – it would be nice but again not essential as long as we keep picking up points against teams around us.