The history of the play-offs confirms what we intuitively know: they’re hard to predict, bear little resemblance to what happened in the regular season and tend to be unkind to the team finishing third.
So it would be bizarre, as well as out of character, for me to nail my colours to the mast. But I believe we’ll win the final promotion spot. Perhaps I’m a blinkered fool (actually, there’s no doubt I am), but my confidence has a justification – SEB.
No, not that one (though his form since January has certainly been a factor in our revival). This is SEB in capitals – a formidable combination of the Scot, the Experience and the Backing.
Since the intervention of Nemesis to shoo Paul Lambert out of Aston Villa, there is no longer a Scottish manager in the Premier League.
However, I reckon that situation will be as short-lived as it’s untypical. For some reason, the environs of Glasgow churn out great managers just as the valleys of South Wales used to produce fly-halves. There’s another one making his mark, and he’s ours.
Alex Neil is a huge asset to us. The proof is on the field, of course – 49 points from 22 games brooks no argument. Much of his formula happens on the training ground, out of our sight. But we see and hear some of it, with two examples on Saturday night.
An insecure manager – and there are many of them around – would downplay the special nature of a local derby in the play-offs. Not a bit of it with Alex.
And an insecure manager would stress how much was wrong with the club when he arrived. At the end-of-season dinner, Alex made a point of praising Neil Adams’ work and the good health of the club he walked into in January.
The players see that confidence, security and authority every day in their boss. Does it impact on the field? To coin a phrase, hell, yes.
To succeed under pressure, one of the keys is to have players who are experienced but still in their prime. The ideal age is 26-29, and we have them in abundance – Howson, Benno and Olsson are 26; Hooper and Dorrans 27; Ruddy, Bassong, Tettey, Johnson and Jerome 28; Russell Martin 29.
Add to that the cool head of O’Neil and the still-boundless energy of Wes, and experience should be a significant plus for us.
Then there’s backing. Our fans are magnificent, of course, but we’d be lying if we said they hadn’t been skittish over the past year or two. Even last week, there were unhelpful mutterings. However, Saturday must have been as heartening to the players as it was to me.
Over the years I’ve witnessed the full gamut of ‘laps of honour’, from the triumphant ones of automatic promotion to the frankly embarrassing.
Saturday was a rare occurrence in recent years – a final day on which it was hard to judge the season’s performance, and of course one that wasn’t really a final day at all. But the fans stayed and cheered them from all four corners of Carrow Road without reservation.
That’s an attitude that already gives City a leg-up towards the Premier League before a play-off ball has been kicked.
Looking at the other Championship contenders this season, it seems they reflect the themes of Delia’s books. Derby were Winter Favourites, before they turned soggy. Ipswich went Back to (very) Basics. Meanwhile Middlesbrough were clearly studying How to Cheat.
There’ll be much – no doubt too much – talking this week. But it’s all we have until the action starts. Perhaps we should try to find some insignificant distraction, like a General Election…
I fear Delia’s Labour Party intervention bodes ill for us, Stewart…
The ‘curse’ of the 3rd place finish is a red herring – from the last 15 D1/Champ. playoffs, the 3rd place team has won more often (7) than not.
Like Thursday, let’s hope there will be plenty of crosses placed into the box for our preferred candidates.
If we do triumph at Wembley, Alex Neil may just eclipse Nicola Sturgeon in the Scottish popularity poll.
Wonder if Neil Adams will be in front of the TV on Saturday?
Thanks for the comments!
Ralph (2): as someone who worked with statistics, I’m well aware of how they can be selected to ‘prove’ many conflicting viewpoints. But in the Championship play-offs of the last six seasons, the 3rd-placed team has triumphed only twice.
Without wanting to throw more cold water, things generally don’t go very well for 3rd-placed teams who fail to win the play-offs. Of the four who’ve recently suffered that, only Watford have bounced back to win promotion. As for Sheffield United…
Stewart – the moral is, “never pick a stats-based argument with a former stat man.”?
After drying myself from that bucket of cold water you threw, here’s a couple of positive thoughts;
1. Ipswich have lost 6 out of 7 POs
2. Mick M. has lost 3 out of 3 POs.
Reasons to be cheerful.
Ralph (4): good stuff!
I’m not usually a cold water man. And there’s another positive thought. The two successful 3rd-placed teams of recent years have both gone on to consolidate their place in the Prem – Swansea (promoted 2011) and West Ham (2012).
I’m no stat man as I think it is pointless to worry about stats, they are rubbish even if they go against Ipswich. Ralph(4) doesn’t give me any more confidence heading into Saturday’s crunch game. Avoid losing leg one at portaloo road and I expect us to triumph. Have a bad feeling tough we will face the cheaters Middlesbrough and lose again at Wembley.
I think Ipswich will play for a draw Saturday. They will know the stats that say we are better away from home and look to beat us at Carrow Road when the team may feel that it has to be more expansive. My hope is we can take an advantage from Portman Rd, as I think we will need it.
Stewart (3) Interesting that you would pick an arbitrary number such as SIX years to prove a point, conveniently cutting off the years 2006-08 when the 3rd placed teams went up three years in succession. You really are a stats pro!
To be honest the most relevant stats are in this seasons record versus the Suffolk lot: Played 2, Won 2, Goals Against 0. The players can take great comfort from that, even if us fans can’t.
Can’t seem to remember our record against Boro…
Neil (8): it’s a fair cop!