Wish me luck.
I’m about to address 300 members of the excellent U3A (University of the Third Age) that I chair in Watford. Nice as they are, I suspect they’ll remind me of what I told them last month:
Firstly that Norwich were going to pip Watford for automatic promotion, and, secondly, there’d be a hung parliament.
Awkward.
Perhaps I should adopt fellow columnist Russell Saunders’ bullish attitude to Watford, but I’m afraid discretion may be the better part of valour. I’m told some may turn up in “We are Premier League” t-shirts, and I’ll smile sweetly.
Humble pie will on the menu, especially as I’m not only a City supporter but also a psephologist.
No, that doesn’t restrict what I eat. It means I’m a student of elections and electoral behaviour. More plainly, I’m a pollster (mostly retired thank goodness).
A question: If I ask you to think of weather forecasters and their record, what comes to mind? Michael Fish and the hurricane, perhaps? That was October 1987 – just one blip in 50 years of reliable advice to help us plan our lives. But it’s what we remember.
It’s like that for pollsters. My former colleagues at Ipsos MORI are an outstanding bunch of professionals, with a highly impressive record in the elections of 1979, 1983, 1987, 1997, 2001, 2005 and 2010. But for the remaining 16 years of my career after 1992, clients and friends only ever asked me about the polls’ failure in that year.
My colleagues are in for a long time of questions about 2015.
Anyway, back to business. With the Portman Road leg now behind us, what have we learnt?
First, that Ipswich are a tougher nut to crack than some might have supposed. Finishing in the top six and winning the games they did, it’s clear they have some resilience and nous – the ease of our victories against them during the season had to be deceptive.
They tightened up in midfield and hoisted the ball forward quickly, both of which made life less comfortable for us.
For all our nice possession, we created few chances and the challenge is to open them up at Carrow Road. One way or another, our Wes will surely have a larger role to play on Saturday.
Equally, some key things about our team were underlined. If there’s a theme in my mind about Norwich today, it’s the importance of the unspectacular.
Alex Tettey didn’t catch the eye as, for instance, Jonny Howson did. But boy, was he important to us breaking up Ipswich possession and getting our own started. My Man of the Match award was between the two of them.
More controversially, perhaps, I want to stand up for Russell Martin. Yes, his clearances aren’t always as decisive as we’d like, and he’ll be disappointed at his part in the equaliser.
Those things are obvious and clear to everyone but what many fans don’t sufficiently recognise, in my view, is the positional and tactical sense with which he prevents many opposition chances being created.
To those who still can’t believe he’s in the team as a centre-back, I offer this thought. Alex Neil, a manager at the dispassionate and decisive end of the spectrum, keeps picking him. Even with Ryan Bennett fit, a strong defender who clears his lines emphatically, Alex sticks with Russ in the centre.
What does the evidence say? Obviously, our defence hasn’t matched the excellence of Middlesbrough’s. Except that it has.
In the last 22 league games (i.e. Alex Neil’s time at Carrow Road), Boro conceded 20 goals – the best in the league, except for City’s 19.
Despite their resilience, I’m still confident we’ll get past Ipswich and be at Wembley on the 25th. We have an advantage in quality, but that alone won’t be enough.
A Norwich-Ipswich semi-final inevitably brings back memories of Steve Bruce. We loved him for the same reason we love Bradley Johnson – he’s a winner.
And so is Alex Neil.
Much as I generally care about people’s lives and values, I give him a special exemption. I don’t care what nationality he is, or his politics. I don’t care about his taste in music. I’m not bothered if he loves animals or remembers his Mum’s birthday (though I’m pretty sure he does). I care about one thing, and it’ll sustain me through this week.
He’s our manager and he’s a winner.
I agree with the analysis especially concerning Russell Martin. On a number of occasions on Saturday his positional play allowed him to prevent balls from coming into the box. A succession of managers have relied on him and they know that in a results business errors of selection can lose them their jobs.
A group of fans consistently are on Russell’s back. Why else are his ratings from the fans in the Pinkun week in week out so low – even when he has by common consent played well.
The same eleven players plus Wes, Hoops and Bennett are likely to figure again on Saturday. Lets get behind the team a see them in their rightful place at Wembley. Then we can show Middlesborough who are the better team. OTBC.
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A spirited defence of Russ, Stew and, as you rightly say, it’s nigh on impossible to question Alex Neil’s decision making. Ironically, I’ve always perceived his inability to spot danger quick enough to be one of his failings but between your good self, Douglas and and AN you’ve almost convinced me otherwise!
OTBC
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I’ve always had you down as a bit of a psephologist.
Re: Russell Martin – it seems some City fans just can’t be happy unless there is a focal point for their moaning. As you say, if AN keeps picking him, then I’d be inclined to think he’s good enough. Good stat on the defence since January. Individual errors will inevitably be made in a season – hopefully none on Saturday though.
Good luck with that meeting – I have a few suggestions as to what could go on the back of those Watford t-shirts!
Just seen this – priceless. If Bradley scores the winner next weekend, my windows need replacing.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-suffolk-32686659
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When Lambert first played Russell Martin centre back, it was his positioning and reading of the game which stood out to me. This clearly isn’t evident @2 from your view in the River End! 😉
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If Russ is so useless, I wonder why he’s the only NCFC player to make the PFA Championship team of the year….and why he’s consistently picked by Strachan. Glad to hear I’m not the only one to value his qualities as a centre back.
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Gary (4) – I’ve conceded!
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I have ignored the ludicrous criticism of Russell Martin by, primarily, Archant’s keyboard warriors, for a long time. You may recall that when we were promoted from League One many thought he should be ditched in favour of Michael Spillane. That tells you all you need to know.
But then these are the sort of fans who regard everything as being so simple. A six-foot-two striker must, by definition, be a “target man” for example. Or left-footed players who can’t use their right are “one-footed”, whilst right-footers (as most fans are of course) are never seen in the same way. That’s the kind of nonsense that’s spouted.
Lambert, Hughton, Adams, Neill and Strachan have all used him as a centre back consistently. Strachan may be short on options, but they can’t all be wrong. Nor can his fellow pros who picked him in the Championship team of the season.
OK, he’s not a giant, and he has his moments. They all do. I did think for the specific threat of IT he might move to RB with Ryan Bennett coming in; that may yet happen on Saturday.
He reminds me of Craig Fleming, intelligent, reads the game well, keeps an eye on his man better than most, though not as mobile as Craig. There have been some very good strikers barely got a look in against him this season.
I remember in our first (or second?) Premiership season under Lambert an incredible overhead off-the-line clearance he made. I don’t think many centre-backs even in the Premiership would have had the anticipation or the agility to make that save.
The only time I think Neill has got it wrong with RM is that when he needed an emergency defensive midfielder against Brentford his footballing intelligence would have made Martin a better option than moving Whittaker. But even saying that I can’t remember what his centre-back options would then have been had he gone down that route.
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Stewart,, your record with the automatics and the election makes me nervous with your confidence for Saturday! Do these things not come in threes?
On similar lines have you noticed how well the clubs with the higher league position have done in the playoffs so far? Preston are already through and no one else is behind after the first leg. The odds on all the higher clubs getting through must be fairly long so I am hoping at least one comes a cropper before Saturday!
Or is it simply that, just like the Tories, it is time for our Suffolk rivals to have some time in the sun?
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Thanks for the comments.
Good to know others share my view of Russell Martin. Gary: no shame in conceding. As someone much wiser than myself once said, “What’s the point of having a mind if you can’t change it?” I’ve done the same over Bassong and many others.
Cosmo (3): Thanks for (most of) the comments. I’m always having to correct people on being a psephologist – don’t know why they keep pronouncing it ‘piss-artist’.
Interesting story re the Ipswich fan. If that’s a precedent, Chris Hughton may be getting some invoices from Norwich fans…
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At half time at PR, somebody said to me: “We’ve been let down by our captain.” I was too flabergasted to reply.It was 1-1, away from home, in a play-off semi-final and we’d had some very good moments, but some always focus on a negative.
There’d been one particualr moment when Russ had headed out weakly — but it was he who scurried back to get in a brilliant block.
If we’d picked R Bennett, and he had portrayed his occasional flaw (of standing off a striker who is shaping to shoot), we’d have heard: “Why did AN change teh defence which got us here?”
The negativity — and it’s by no measn peculair to Norwich; do you know any Spurs fans?! — is alway sheard whenever we concede a goal. On Sat, so many folk said: “Sloppy defending cost us”.
But every goal every team concedes at every level can be put down to an error by the defending team. A volley from the half-way line? Why didn’t anyone close him down, and why didn’t the kepper move earlier?
So, on Sat, we could (and some did) blame Ruddy. Or we could remember his earlier ‘worldy’ and concede that he was unlucky that his quick-reactions kick while on the floor sent the ball away from one opponent but to another.
Just because Ipswich fans rejoiced at not losing, we shouldn’t think that a draw was a bad result. Much as I’d like to think otherwise, we’re not going to beat them every time we play them.
But over two legs, with AN proactively ‘game managing’, I think the best team will win. And that’s us by a country mile.
As you know, Stewart, like you I live in Watford heartland — or, rather, in an area which is suddenly full of Watford fans. Their team deserved to go up. But we’re better than them too.
If we win our next two games, we’ll be in the Premier League. We have never been able to say that at any stage this season. It’s not a time for faint hearts in the stands, because there won’t be any in the dug-out or on the pitch.
And Russ Martin will collect the trophy at Wembley, 30 years since I reported on Dave Watson doing it.
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What odds on a Saturday on a late Russell Martin bullet headed winner, from a corner, from the Snakepit side, of course?
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While I conceded that Alex Neil knows best, I fear this love-in is teetering on on the edge of building our skipper up into something he isn’t.
Russell Martin is unquestionably Norwich City through and through and is – I’m sure – ‘a good lad’, (even though an ex-coach, once of these parts may disagree) but I’m unsure he’s of a level to be immune from criticism.
It takes some yellow and green spectacles of considerable strength to perceive his first-half performance on Saturday to be anything other than ‘ordinary’, although admittedly him and Seb Bassong contained the Murphy/Sears that rather more comfortably in the second period.
In my post-match comment pieces I usually look to pluck out a few positives (which last season was quite a challenge on occasions let me tell you 😉 ) but also look to offer balance. In doing so that means the removal of said yellow and green specs and to sometimes examine the negatives.
On Saturday I considered one of those to be Russell’s performance. I didn’t consider it ‘blame apportionment’, but a *personal view* on events as they unfolded.
I wasn’t proposing he be stripped of the captaincy and be made to train with the Under-18s (as if anyone takes any notice of my opinion…) but just suggested that Ryan Bennett’s superior strength in the air may be worthy of consideration, given the obvious threat of Daryl Murphy and the aerial bombardment that will ensue as of 12:15 on Saturday.
Like the rest of you, I trust Alex Neil implicitly to make the right call and expect the back-four to remain unchanged on Saturday, but remain unconvinced that the Bassong/Martin combo is one that, in the medium term, can’t be improved upon.
But, having said that, perhaps I’ll choose my words more carefully in future when questioning the performance of a City stalwart.
Anyway… onwards and upwards, and roll on Saturday lunchtime.
OTBC
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Gary (12): I’m not sure we’re as far apart as you now think! Appropriately for the conversation, I wonder if you’re getting a little defensive.
None of us is claiming that Russ’s header in the Ipswich equaliser was anything but weak. And there have been similar instances. He’s certainly not above criticism.
But some of us are pointing out compensating virtues in his play as a central defender, and trying to explain why we think the blanket criticism of Russ is disproportionate and ill-informed. Some would say our defensive success under AN is in spite of Russ; I’d say he’s been a positive part of it.
Russ is not John Terry. He’s a better human being, a less good central defender. But he’s better than some of our fans recognise.
Of course, come 11.30 on Saturday we may learn that he’s been replaced by Ryan Bennett. However, I suspect not.
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If Ryan Bennett comes in on Saturday (injuries aside) I’ll eat my hat, and not a marzipan one either. Not that I don’t rate him, he just hasn’t had the game time. How can he come in now, for the most crucial of games?
Russ will be right, I’m sure of it. The criticism of him now, and Whittaker earlier, has bordered on embarrassing. Whittaker is an ATTACKING fullback, which means he’s sometimes ‘out of position’. You can’t have it both ways.
(7) Talking of nonsense, one ‘theory’ that always bugs me is that a team isn’t regarded as an attacking one unless they play two up front. I sometimes wonder if these people understand football at all.
Let’s see that wall of colour on Saturday. Come on City!
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Russ Martin has had my vote for POS for past 2 years for his 100% commitment and unswerving loyalty. Saturday may be the best or worst outcome in recent memory bragging rights for decades whatever happens after, but there will be only one winner and then another ‘bigger’ game to play for the victor. Our lads are giving their absolute all for the cause so is Russ, JR, Whits, etc make an error for goodness sake please don’t moan, we are having a fantastic season. P.S. Are you ready for Penalties and what’s your prediction then Mr Lewis?
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Colin (15): great post!
Everyone should be relieved to hear I’ve now stopped making predictions. Still hopeful, though….
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Yes Colin, exactly. “Please don’t moan.” I think so much will rest on the performance of Hoolahan. Not everything he tries will come off, but we need to be patient and encourage him to take risks, not moan when he loses the ball like so many people seem desperate to do.
You only need to look at how Villa have changed since Sherwood encouraged them to play without fear. Show faith in these players and they will have the belief in themselves to perform to their best.
Wow, I’m getting so worked up about this one! I keep telling myself “it’s only a game, it’s only a game.”
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Lets hope we get a strong and fair referee appointed for Saturday’s game.
The League always used to appoint refs who , geographically at any rate, appeared “neutral”
I could’nt believe it when a ref from E.Yorks was appointed to ref the away match at Rotherham.We all know what happened during that game.
There is too much at stake for both clubs on Sat to be prejudiced by an attention seeking ref playing to the cameras.
I don’t know if an appointment has been made yet but the ref from the first leg would seem a logical move.
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