Very little is certain in football beyond Ronaldo or Messi winning the Ballon D’Or and the fact that FIFA officials have nice watches.
However you can also virtually guarantee that those clubs promoted to the Premier League will quickly find themselves odds-on to be relegated the following year.
In fact the bookies had made Norwich second favourites to go down before I had even managed to get a celebratory pint at The Torch after our Wembley success (although the queue at the bar was partly responsible).
The only quicker condemnation of our prospects came from various Ipswich fans on social media and the two lads who hurled ‘pleasantries’ at me from the back of a minibus heading to Teesside; all of them keen to suggest that our stay in the top flight would be short and not so sweet.
Whilst that may stem from disappointment and jealousy, the bookies have statistics and history to fall back on.
Since the start of the Premier League there have been 65 promotions and of those sides, just under half (29) were sent packing after a single season. Last year we were only a Leicester ‘purple patch’ away from the clean sweep.
This season’s Premier League contains many established clubs who have used their years of top flight cash to create squads packed full of talent. When you consider the sums that have been invested at perennial strugglers such as Villa and Sunderland it shows what you’re up against.
So on paper it’s easy to see why the bookies are giving Norwich, Watford and Bournemouth little chance. But as the cliché goes, football isn’t played on paper. To really assess a team’s chances, you need to look past the names on the team sheet and the money it took to put them there.
You need to consider those less tangible elements which still have a massive bearing on a club’s fortunes. ‘Team-spirit’, ‘the feel-good factor’ – whatever you call it – is one of the major factors in the prevailing atmosphere that surrounds a club and to appreciate that you have to be closely connected.
Our own recent top-flight experience, whilst painful at the time, perhaps provides a reason for hope.
At the start of the 2013/14 season, we were widely tipped for mid-table security. We were debt-free and had assembled our most expensive squad in club history.
However something didn’t feel right.
Maybe it was an inevitable reaction –the hangover from a three-year long party. A realisation that Hughton couldn’t conjure up those special moments like his predecessor.
Or the fact that none of our new strikeforce had scored three goals against Ipswich whilst sporting a ridiculous moustache? Whatever it was, a magic ingredient was missing and the crowd knew it.
Those looking in from outside wouldn’t have known but from an early point, many fans sensed that we could be in trouble. Compare the relief we felt when Hughton left to the incredulity of some pundits at the decision – a reflection of the fact that they had no idea just how bad it was.
These are the same pundits who will write us off this season with little or no idea of what’s really going on at our club at the moment.
Even allowing for post-Wembley euphoria, there is a genuine feel-good factor at Norwich City. In over 30 years, I have seldom seen the club so aligned from top to bottom. From the owners, through the playing staff to the supporters, there is a genuine resolve and shared belief.
It’s a wonderfully rare thing.
Even in the glory years of Mike Walker and our trips to Europe, the relationship between Robert Chase and just about everyone else at the club cast an uneasy shadow. Perhaps the closest we have seen would be the three years under Paul Lambert.
There was a comment posted in response to Gary’s recent piece questioning the current optimism and calling for a reality check. But I’d argue it’s exactly that optimism which could prove to be our strongest asset next year.
When the inevitable setbacks occur, it’s that optimism which will lead to a rousing chorus of ‘On the Ball City’ rather than the resignation, restlessness or ‘clapper-throwing’ that marked Hughton’s reign.
There are lessons to be learned from the Lambert era. Firstly when a club is truly unified, as I believe ours is now, it can propel you to remarkable success and to defy the odds.
Secondly, it can all unravel in the time it takes your captain to slap in a transfer request.
On that basis, surely we should ride the wave whilst we can and savour every single moment?
To survive, there will have to be three worse teams than City: I give you, Newcastle, Sunderland, Villa, and probably both the other promoted teams.
We bucked the trend in going straight back up, and that was one in seven, I quite like the 50/50 chance of staying up
One big difference to the Lambert years – PL never moved his family to Norfolk, Alex Neil is moving his down this summer.
I’m confident of a mid-table finish and who knows, perhaps even a cup run!
At the start of the season any of the bottom 12 teams are quite capable of getting relegated. I totally agree with the point that chances are massively improved by everyone being united and pulling together, from board to team to fans.
Just like Hull last year, and to an extent us the year before, traditionally at least one team who is expected to be fine implode and drop down, I think we have a very good shout of staying up, perhaps even keeping ourselves happily clear. What’s really important in my mind is starting well, like the Worthington team before, fail to win any of the first 10 games gives you a mountain to climb that may well be too much.
So hopefully we’ll hit the ground running, carry momentum forward and all will be a lot of fun!
OTBC
We’re on the cusp of exciting times for sure. The atmosphere for the 1st home game will be electric.
I’m expecting us to comfortably survive at least for the next 2 seasons – if so, the big boys will be sniffing around AN. Once he departs, anything could happen.
Be interesting to see how AN develops his own squad – he inherited a strong one from previous managers.
I see Redmond is worth 6 million (according to Everton) and Sterling is 50 million (Liverpool) – I know who I’d rather have in my team.
Cosmo (4) – I suspect you’re right about AN’s eventual departure, but let’s enjoy the ride while we have him. From a brief chat with David McNally, I get the impression AN’s feet are less itchy than Lambert’s.
The new-found unity will undoubtedly help us next season. As will the decent squad we already have, the ability to add to it because of our good housekeeping, the sheer talent of AN – and the fact that Suarez is no longer waiting for us.
Of course, another 19 clubs will be pulling out all the stops to stay in the top flight and be part of the next – even more obscene – TV deal.
Interesting times
AN will, I fully expect, be a revelation to the PL. The club’s we face, and many will cause us major problems, will be more apprehensive about facing us than in our CH reign, for the simple fact of unpredictability.
The prospects for City in the Premier league are so much better than in 2011-12. A nucleus of Premier league experienced players is available where in 2011-12 there was a largely untried group of players.
City are much stronger in defence (remember Whitbread, Ayala, Ward and Tierney?) In midfield there is also improvement – Crofts, Fox have been replaced by Howson Tetley and Dorrans. Even in attack the players have improved – Redmond and a choice of Jerome, Grabban and Hooper show how things gave developed.
The only missing ingredient is Grant Holt in his prime. With a few quality additions backed by the team and work ethic promoted by Alex Neil, City should have enough to compete. A good start is important but even without that, I look forward to City ruffling a few feathers. Let us not treat the top six as unbeatable. Remember City have beaten both Manchester clubs Arsenal and Tottenham and drawn with Chelsea and Liverpool.
Until the negative approach of the Hughton choked the life out of the crowd, no team (Liverpool excepted) went to Carrow Road without expecting a fight. Create that atmosphere again and City will be a force to be reckoned with once more. OTBC.
Douglas (7) – Great points, except for an inconsistency. You praise the attitude that beat the Manchester clubs, Arsenal and Spurs, but decry the negative approach of Chris Hughton. None of those victories was under the ‘inspiring’ regime of Lambert; they all happened under Hughton.
I guess that underlines the importance of tactical nous and planning, as well as inspiration. Fortunately, I believe Alex Neil brings both to the party.
Can’t wait for August.
As @7 Douglas points out, the difference between the 2011-12 squad and the current squad, in terms of previous Premier League experience, is huge.
By my quick reckoning, only Adam Drury had previous top flight experience (with apologies to any others I may have over looked) but now 17 of the current squad played for Norwich in the Premier during the fateful 2013-14 season.
OK, I accept the point that those 17 may not be deemed good enough for the Premier League, on the basis we were relegated with those 17 players. Nevertheless, the depth of experience is so much greater than the previous promotion.
Of course, that isn’t the only factor that will determine whether, or not, we survive, but it’s certainly a much healthier starting basis than, say, either Watford or Bournemouth currently have.
Have got to admire your optimism with regards staying up etc. Some even say mid-table!
Yes team spirit is important, however once a continuing losing run happens this can evaporate quickly. To stay up you need quality in the forward positions and Norwich have strikers which have failed in the premier league in the past. This squad was not good enough two years ago and got yourselves relegated.
From watching your game against Middlesbrough at home I would be very worried about hoofing the ball for seventy mins if this is AN type of play when he is faced with a team who get men behind the ball.