That’s pre-season done and dusted then. I’m not sure how much we’ve learnt over the past few weeks but attention now turns to the big kick off against Crystal Palace on Saturday.
Not only is this a landmark season for the Canaries, marking the 80th anniversary of our move to Carrow Road, it’s also probably our biggest ever, in terms of financial reward, should, in 38 games time, the club finish seventeenth, or higher. Because the rewards for being one of the twenty Premier League teams from 2016-17 onwards are huge, as the next series of multi-billion pound broadcasting deals kick in.
A minimum of £100 million pounds, just for finishing twentieth – it’s truly CRAZY!
So, what are the chances of City crossing that mythical finish line and avoiding the drop?
Well, if the bookies are to be believed, and I’m not really a betting man, City, together with Watford and Bournemouth, are all predicted to be “one season Premier League wonders”.
Watford – 20th, Norwich – 19th and Bournemouth – 18th, are the universal predictions from the High Street and online betting establishments alike.
Fair? Probably not. Predictable? Yes.
The bookies usually know more than the punters. How else do they have that “edge?”
The stats speak for themselves.
In the preceding 23 Premier League seasons, only once (1997-98) have all three promoted teams been relegated the following May.
However, it’s equally fair to mention, that there have only been two seasons (2001-2002 and 2011-12) where all three promoted clubs have survived.
Or, to put it another way, in 21 out of 23 seasons at least one of the promoted teams have been relegated after just one season.
So, three different clubs, with three different close seasons, but who is the best equipped to survive?
If it was solely based upon managers, then Eddie Howe, currently in his second spell at Bournemouth, is the longest serving of the three, having been in charge since October 2012. Howe undoubtedly has the advantage of knowing his current squad inside out, knowing its strengths and weaknesses.
Alex Neil, as we all know, has only been in charge from January 2015 and, although his arrival was part way through the last transfer window, this is his first real opportunity to fine tune his squad.
Watford, ditched their fourth and promotion winning manager from last season – apparently he was being too greedy in new contract negotiations – and have gone for the experienced Quique Sanchez Flores, once of Atletico Madrid, Valencia and, more recently, Getafe.
If safety was judged on age and experience alone, there would be only winner. However, none have managed in the Premier League before, so, no major advantage on that front.
And then there are the players at each club. And this is where, in my opinion, it gets really interesting, as each club seems to have taken a differing approach.
Eddie Howe’s Bournemouth, seem to have opted for the loyalty route, having so far signed just five players.
Having promised not to spend “silly money” they promptly went out and splashed £8 million on Tyrone Mings. Certainly, he’s young and with plenty of potential but with just one full season in the Championship it feels a big risk.
Howe has also signed Sylvian Distin on a one-year deal. At 37 years old there’s no questioning his Premier League experience, just, maybe, the legs for another 38 game season?
Further goalkeeping experience has been added with Arthur Boruc and Adam Federici, plus Josh King, a striker, on a free from Blackburn Rovers.
You do, however, have to wonder if last season’s Championship top scorers will have the fire-power to survive in the Premier League?
Personally, I doubt it.
Watford, in contrast, have so far signed ten players – a word limit, plus a spell check nightmare, prevents me listing them all – mainly from overseas, with a mixture of international experience.
Etienne Capone became the club’s record signing, arriving from Spurs, and has Premier League experience, even if it’s 24 games in two and a bit seasons. And Matei Vydra has finally signed permanently, after two previous loan spells, from Udinese.
It will be interesting to see how Flores manages to integrate the large number of new signings into the current squad, which looks desperately short of genuine Premier League experience.
Maybe, the bookies have this prediction right after all?
As for Norwich over the close season, the new arrivals were, perhaps, a little slow in arriving.
Alex Neil does, however, have the benefit of a squad with much greater Premier League experience that the two promotion rivals, even if the cynics may suggest, some most part of the relegation team from the season before last.
The additions of Graham Dorrans and Youssouf Mulumbu also bring a wealth of Premier League experience, as, to a lesser extent, does Robbie Brady.
Add in the ‘Alex Neil factor’ and I genuinely believe that the Canaries will surprise a few of their Premier League rivals throughout 2015-16.
So, where do I think the Canaries will finish come next May? Well, you’ll have to wait a few more days for the answer to that one.
On the Ball City
As for the other two teams, my interest goes so far as it does with the others in the group of 8-10 teams realistically going to be contesting the bottom the spaces. The premier league is often described as a several leagues within one division, sends apt to me.
As for us, we’ve got a good shout, yes many of the same players who got relegated but fortunately no Chris Hughton. What I really want to see is Norwich have a go at teams, there is nothing to fear from most of the division and nothing to lose against the big teams. Norwich are definitely good enough to stay up quite comfortably. For my mind we are well equipped to do so. Not to say we definitely will stay up, nor that I’d put my house on it, but we’ve got a really good shout.
OTBC
I’m predicting 1 of the 3 to go down – won’t say which but it isn’t Norwich!
Bournemouth look like they are adding Gradel up front – could be key with his experience in England before.
Will Watford fill up their exotic transfer trolley anymore? Probably..
Losing Mulumbu for 1-2 months is a blow but such are the twists and turns of fate over the next few months.
I’ve always liked and admired Danny Murphy;
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/33759925
Hi Paul – The starting point for this was the bookies prediction that the three promoted teams would go straight back down and that’s why I’ve focused on just the three.
Of course, you’re right, there are several others who will also be in the mix. It’s not just about the promoted teams, which is why i think they’re wrong.
A fair and balanced article Gary.
Our big problem will be integration of these players, although the majority have had a near full pre-season with us. They lack Premier know how but have international and top flight experience of their competitions combined with Champions and Europa league so the pedigree is there. The same was said when we signed a lot of players under the first season of our owners when they would not be suited to the championship. We finished the season with defeat in the play off final.
We cannot be excused of not giving the manager the tools and paying inflated prices of existing Prem players. I think this experience of the premier league is over stated. For me its about what does that club have with regards quality in the final third of the pitch in creating and scoring goals?
With regards yourselves I believe that creating and scoring goals will be your problem as I can only see WH and NR creating anything regular for your forwards and they were not much of a hit last time you were there although NR has improved a lot. Very surprised you have not added a couple of forwards and another creative player to your squad, although it seems you are trying to offload RVW and GH before you buy maybe, but time is ticking fast and the panic buy situation arises although you are being linked with Murray who I think would be a good buy for any of the promoted three as he did well last season back end for Palace.
Bournemouth look to be relying on their first team as they have added little strength or quality so far. Paying 8 million for Mings (and two players as well) is ridiculous at this stage of his career when you think we signed our left back from Roma who kept Ashley Cole out the team as well as playing Champions league for 1.6 million. In Arter(currently injured)and Ritchie they have two good solid players who can create and Wilson is very impressive but what if they get injured?
Three clubs with different policies which is what makes football and premier league for us three at least so interesting this year.
A fair and well-reasoned piece (though perhaps we’ll see fans of other clubs taking a different view…).
The bookies’ record of predicting who’ll get relegated is one of their worst – only surpassed by their awful record of predicting the teams who’ll come up from the Championship. Those odds will change as the season progresses and we see strugglers emerge among the likes of Leicester, Sunderland, Newcastle and Villa.
Within the group of promoted sides, I suspect Norwich and Bournemouth will confound many pundits’ gloomy predictions. Both teams have smart managers with a clear idea of their playing style, and an ability to make the players believe in it
Given their upheaval in managers last Autumn, Watford did remarkably well to get promoted. In particular, they showed a lot of character in turning round losing situations. Can a new manager and players re-create that spirit? Time will tell.
The very definition of “silly money” is paying £8M for Tyrone Mings. He looked hopeless in all the games against us last season, his positional sense and defensive know-how are sadly lacking, and his only plus point seems to be a powerful shot which he sometimes gets on target. I don’t know what Eddie Howe sees in him – our £7M for Brady looks much better value.
Like our Watford friend above, I rate Ritchie and Arter, but I think the Bournemouth keepers are going to get plenty of practice.
As for the Hornets, it will be interesting to see how their import policy works out, and whether this manager makes it all the way to the end of the season.
@4 Mick – thanks for your considered reply.
Personally, I’m probably rating PL experience much greater than you and that’s why I think Norwich have an edge over Watford and Bournemouth.
I accept its not the only factor which will determine survival, or, not but the PL is like no other and experience shouldn’t be underestimated.
That said, you have to deal with whatever hand you’re dealt. Watford have majored on the overseas route and I’ve no doubt some of your signings will excel, whilst others may take time to settle, some will invariably not.
Will be interesting, and, hopefully, not too painful, to see how it pans out.
Mick (4) – To echo Gary’s comment, a good and fair analysis from you.
I’d only question whether time is really ticking fast and getting to the ‘panic buy’ stage. The window is open for another four weeks, and I’m sure plenty is happening behind the scenes. Obviously it’s better to have new players for the pre-season, but last year Norwich signed Cameron Jerome on 24 August and that worked out pretty well.
Cheers
Stan Collymore for what it’s worth (not much I know) has predicted Watford bottom, Bournemouth next and Norwich for relegation – let’s stuff that prediction down his throat.
Can’t wait for Danny Mills to chip in.
It’s good to be back where we belong but I’ll miss the thrills and spills of the Championship – will be interesting to see who can drag themselves up this season.
Old boy Chris Hughton kicks off the season on Friday night. Hope Brighton have a good run under him – the seagulls need some good news after all the bad press they’ve received over the summer.
@9 Bob in Diss – he’s hardly likely to predict his beloved Villa for the drop, despite consecutive 17th place finishes over the past two seasons. However, I do wonder how they will cope with the loss of both Benteke and Delph? An accident waiting to happen?
Any of the three teams have the potential to stay up this year.
Watford is simply an unknown! I would imagine, at most, a small handful of their fans would have seen any of their new signings play in a competitive match.
I am also interested to see how these new imports will act in the face of adversity. Will they care if Watford go down? How many would jump ship? If they have European and Champions league experience on their CV, they certainly won’t care enough about Watford to ply their trade in the Championship!
McNally highlighted a few areas that were marked as ‘learning from past mistakes’ that would not be repeated this season – one of which was to buy British based players.
And how about their owners?! How much of a winless streak before they decide that the grass is greener?… Five managers last year, was it? Again, they’re capable but my main concern for them would be what happens when things aren’t going so well.
Bournemouth remind me of the Norwich team who came up under Paul Lambert a few years ago. They play good, attacking football, have a great manager and have a similar work ethic, with a ‘never say die’ attitude.
Where we have an advantage over Bournemouth, is that our players have been there before. Our squad has depth as a result of this and we have learnt from past mistakes.
Many pre-season reviews will highlight this as a negative – saying that we have the same squad as last time, which wasn’t good enough to stay up in 2013/14.This time, however, we don’t have Chris Hughton! That squad should have stayed up – but now, with a decent manager, it looks a lot more positive!
It will be a long and difficult season but, with yellow and green tinted glasses on, I would give City a slight a advantage over the others due to recent PL experience we have. We know what to expect, what it takes, what lessons we have learnt and the chance to build a squad with depth in it.
We just need a couple more additions and we’re there! OTBC!
There is no doubt that Mulumbu’s injury is a big set back for us. He would have been a steadying, influential figure in midfield, and now it would seem he will be missing for at least the first two formative months of the season, if not more.
@11 Rich – there’s little doubt that the manager played a part in our previous relegation. However, to lay the blame entirely at his door rather lets the players off the hook. Some weren’t good enough, some clearly lost form and confidence. Culpability, in my opinion, has to extend to both on and off the field.
I do however, expect the playing style under the current manager to be far more “pleasing on the eye” than last time around.
@Gary – Very true, but the good managers out there know how to get the best out of their players.
Form and confidence comes with achieving things – be it through performances, winning or goalsassistsclean sheets. The defensive and unambitious style of play resulted in our players achieving none of these things – hence the players losing form and confidence.
Holty left because of this and Russell Martin has said that, this season, the team will “impose ourselves on teams, rather than being dictated to”. (Without meaning to spark another debate,) RVW is still struggling to regain his confidence from that season!
I believe that squad of players were good enough to stay up. I have no hatred towards Hughton and I’m sure he did what he thought was best, however I disagree and we ended up getting relegated.
It is likely that the majority of our starting 11 vs Palace will be made up of players from the season that we are relegated. I am a lot more confident and excited to see the team play under the current manager.
The majority on here seem to have blindly followed the same old cliche’s spouted by the media regarding Watford. The most common fallacy is “how loyal are the players?”. We took most of the Udinese players on loan in 2012 and everyone suggested we would have no team once they all returned. Of the original intake, the best 6 are still at the club on long term contracts. No one went back who we wanted to keep. We have also retained 6 players who were at the club from before 2012. Norwich apart, I don’t think too many teams have retained 12 players from their squad from 2012. Therefore I don’t see loyalty being an issue.
We are also told that our players do not have experience of the league. I concede that they don’t have a lot but the players brought in have amassed over 200 international caps and have Bundesliga, Serie A, La Liga and Eredivisie experience. I may be wrong but I think we have as many players in our squad who have played a World Cup quarter final as Liverpool.
Will we keep our manager? If we don’t it didn’t hinder us last season. Another common fallacy is that the owner keeps changing managers but Sannino resigned of his own free will, Garcia left due to ill health and Jokanovic allowed his contract to expire. MacKinley was dismissed but I feel that the owners appointed him in haste which they regretted 8 days later and immediately changed their position having paid MacKinley handsomely. I don’t think Watford fans are too concerned about who is head coach as the system is set up at the club so that another more suitable candidate can take over at short notice if required.
Watford have brought in too many players is another misnomer. We brought in more in 2012 and reached the play off final losing in extra time. The players this time are of better quality and give us real strength in depth. We now have two players for each position so that injuries and suspensions will hopefully mean minimal disruption. I expect that about 6-7 players who played in our final game last season will start at Everton on Saturday. If anything I would have been more concerned if we only brought in two or three players as we couldn’t cope with inevitable injuries.
We are also told that by bringing in so many we will have lost squad team spirit from last season. Well ask Burnley and the countless other teams who have been immediately relegated and not strengthened how long team spirit lasts. There is no room for sentimentality which is why our owners have been ruthless. They already own top tier teams in Italy and Spain and I believe know what is needed to survive.
I do like the Norwich optimism on this site which is fully understandable but being honest you must have some concerns about survival. You have hardly introduced any new players to the squad which was relegated last time and have a manager who through no fault of his own is unable to attract signings to the club. If you were a player would you rather sign for Alex Neill who previously managed Hamilton or Quique Sanchez Flores who has managed a team that won a Europa League title?
That all being said I actually believe that Norwich are good enough to stay up along with us and Bournemouth as last seasons Championship was exceptional and I feel had more quality than the bottom of the Premier League. I may be wrong and eating humble pie but I think Watford will fair best of the promoted teams with Norwich not too far behind and Bournemouth just escaping relegation.
A lot went wrong in 2013-14, including a poison that seeped in between the fans and the club. That won’t happen again. Also, we’ve kept the right characters at the club and added some good ones on top. Lessons have truly been learned.
To be fair to Watford – for a change – the turnover of managers can be misrepresented. Of their eye-catching four in 37 days, one was a caretaker and one was struck down by illness – hardly the club’s fault.
It was a bit stunning for them to part company with their successful manager of last year, but they’ve brought in someone with impressive experience.
I just entered a competition which forced me to predict three clubs for the drop. Of the promoted teams, none is in my selection.
Well we are not just looking at bookies predictions here and city’s experience of the premier league.The time spent in the top division when city were led by lambert,hughton & of course Adams went from quiet confidence to edge of seat stuff.Now we have a new manager who instills a new confidence,but unless he gets the players he needs it could be more of the nerve shredding stuff again.I don’t believe much is more so no need to bring in a completely new squad but surely s a decent amount of money still has to be spent on players he feels necessary to survive and needs to be spent rather quickly.
Simmo,
Excellent article. I do not think most Norwich fans know a lot of these facts as they just listen to the media and spout the same.
Our existing players and the new ones do a lot of work in the community. We were a market leader in that in the 80’s as well then the sheep followed our approach.
Even at the weekend we had another open day where all the players gave up their time to meet the fans and integrate with the local kids.
A lot of our more coveted players have turned down moves abroad and in this country as they love the club and have all wanted to sign long term contracts.
Have Norwich had an open day with the fans this summer?
@15 – Simmos – “Jokanovic allowed his contact to expire” – he was only given a contract to the end of the season in the first place.
Whether that was the owner’s choice, or his, we’ll never know. Whichever it was and, however greedy he was being during the renewal process, personally, I’m still staggered that he was allowed to go.
I also bet that some of the player contracts subsequently dished out are far more generous, both in cash terms and contract length. Players are virtually impossible to sack, unlike managers, and they’ll be far harder to offload should you get relegated next May.
We are the least talked about club in the media. Our players, manager and even Delia are rarely mentioned. Got a feeling that’s about to change as we get off to a great start during August. If we can keep best players then mid table finish on the cards. Next season will be the tricky one. Villa, Leicester, West Ham will all struggle.
Gary,
To clear this up for you.
SJ had a contract until June 1st. A week after the season had finished he was offered a contract which we understand was rejected, the club then made an improved offer based on performance which he also rejected.The club had always stated that they wanted him to be manager this season. The decision was taken to not sanction a manager wanting £50,00 a week plus bonuses. Personally I agree with this as he was being greedy. The club has a wage ceiling and relegation clauses in contracts and I do not think they will be paying big money as the accounts from previous seasons back this up.
#19 – Gary – I think my comment on Jokanovic was correct. He negotiated a contract to expire at the end of June and as no agreement could be reached for an extension the fixed term contract ended. I was also surprised and disappointed that Jokanovic was not retained as he built a real team spirit but as I also said, the owners will make the tough and ruthless decisions if they feel it is in the clubs best interest as there is no room for sentimentality. I think you will find that our supporters may question decisions but ultimately back the owners after all they have done for us.
I don’t think we will be relegated but if we should then I believe you will find that our owners will be quite shrewd. In the same way that most clubs operate, any long term contracts for players will have a relegation clause reducing wages. Undoubtedly the star players will be offloaded but with the worldwide scouting network we can replace these players with young and hopefully eager new talent. Had you heard of Vydra or Abdi before they were sent to Watford? and there is a pipeline of these players within the group. We have not had a shortage of new players each year as is constantly levelled at us and it has not caused too many problems for us.
I realise that most non Watford supporters would like to see us fail but I truly believe that the owners have so much invested in the project they will do whatever it takes to ensure that the clubs long term stability is secure. They are not millionaire owners using the club as their new toy like so many other teams but as already explained have been successful in running, promoting and keeping other clubs in both Serie A and La Liga operating these clubs as profitable businesses. They will look to sell their assets at the optimum price such as they did with with Alexis Sanchez and if that means losing a few players on the way I think most fans accept the price for the long term stability which we have not had since Elton John was in charge in the late 80’s/early 90’s. I was encouraged to see that offers made during the summer for the purchase of Granada were refused and with the potential higher return that Watford provides they are even less likely to sell or drop the club.
I hope I am not proved wrong but the owners seem to be in this for the long term and not just for a few seasons of potential glory.
#20 – Colin M – If you are the least talked about (which I don’t agree with as who talks about Stoke or WBA?) Watford are the least liked by the media with which I am totally fine.
Mick – I understand the concept of negotiation.
Whether that figure is correct or not, it’s largely irrelevant. Your owners had a commercial judgement to make and made their decision. I think most in football were surprised by it.
Relegation clauses makes perfect sense, we had 40% wage reductions in all our contracts which kicked in upon demotion.
Nevertheless, I think you’ll be staggered by how much your wage bill will increase as a consequence of promotion, but the true extent of that won’t be know for over a year.
At least your owners don’t sound as reckless as some at other clubs!
@22 Simmos – to be honest, I wouldn’t expect you to be anything but praiseful about the club’s handling of negotiations with the ex-manager (especially in light of the subsequent appointment) together with all the player arrivals.
It also doesn’t surprise me to hear you say that you won’t be relegated.
Time will also tell whether your faith in your worldwide scouting network is justified or misplaced.
Personally, I don’t have any issues with the way Watford are doing things, it’s within the rules, nor do I have any particular desire to see you fail.
These are exciting times at Vicarage Road after a lengthy absence from the Premier League.
Simmos (22): It’s a fair point, which we ought to acknowledge, that Watford’s owners are much better than the capricious millionaires in charge of some other clubs.
It still rankles a little that Watford can be helped by their Italian brothers offering a player to Napoli to replace one that Watford wished to sign. But there’s no law against it, and I can think of several Premier League clubs more deserving of dislike than Watford.
Good luck for the season ahead (as long as it’s not at Norwich’s expense).
Please read the article in the Guardian. This should enlighten you a bit more about our owners. Then you can see why we are so pleased to have them instead of what Blackburn, Cardiff, Hull, Birmingham and Leyton Orient have to put up with!
Mick, I’ve read that Guardian piece, and I must say the whole thing sounds very impressive. It’s almost the polar opposite of how Norwich recruit. I personally don’t see how nationality and PL experience can be valued over pure quality of player. Many have come in from overseas and handled it perfectly well; ask Southampton. Finding those gems is what it’s all about for me, and the wider you cast your net the better chance you have.
Luckily for Norwich, there’s most of good squad there already. We just need a couple more. Whether they arrive and whether they’re good enough will remain to be seen.
Ben,
Thanks for acknowledging that balanced article. They are good owners who know how to run football clubs as profit making businesses with success on the field. So far they are showing they are in this for the long term which as fans is very important. We are lucky to have them.
Premier league is all very nice but overall quality in my view should win through. The league is not as physical as it used to be with reference to changes with regards tackling from behind and more emphasis on technical ability.
With regards your squad it was arguably the strongest in the Championship. Keeping faith with the squad which got you relegated can go either way. If you go on a losing run the old doubts will resurface in the players minds. Looking at your fixtures its imperative that you put some points on the board from your opening 10 matches as this will give the squad much more confidence. A bad start and I think with the next ten and your finish could prove very difficult but you never know.
Of the signings you have made this season I do not see much quality in those players as they seem to be very safe transfers.
See you are being linked with two quality attacking players from overseas. Will Norwich fans be happy at integrating this talent or want another less technical British player who does lots of running and tackling and hits the ground running?
Mick (29): Norwich fans would be delighted to add a bit of flair (foreign or otherwise) to a squad that’s admirable but – as you say – a little short of the x factor.
We love exciting, technical payers such as Darren Huckerby and Wes Hoolahan. They don’t need to have foreign names – but no harm if they do. There’s palpable excitement about the prospect (though we don’t know how realistic it is) of getting Juan Quintero.
I wouldn’t say Huckerby was technical, my memories were that he was a good player with a lot of pace and very direct?
@29 Mick – It’s a great article. The below section did raise an eyebrow.
So when Watford decided to keep the Nigerian striker Odion Ighalo last October they first cancelled his loan, then Udinese released him from his contract and finally he returned to Watford on a free transfer, all within 24 hours – this summer Udinese’s president has suggested they may have him back again. The Ecuador right-back Juan Carlos Paredes and the Mexico midfielder Miguel Layún joined Granada on permanent deals and then signed different permanent contracts at Watford within days and without ever playing for the Spanish side.”