In my last piece I grappled with the question: “Where are you from?”
For those who missed it, it was some thoughts about Gorleston rather than an insight into the deeper mysteries of existence. Still a tricky one, but it turns out much more straightforward than today’s issue: “As Norwich fans, what should we expect?”
One of the things I love about this site is the exchange of views. Even when I profoundly disagree, I enjoy how people take the opportunity to make a case – which sometimes does require more than 140 characters.
That’s why I miss one contributor from a while ago, even though we drove each other crazy. Essentially, his stance was that we shouldn’t settle for anything less than City being among the top clubs in the top division. I applauded that desire but argued that our expectations should be tempered by realism.
We never found common ground and other contributors weighed in on both sides. On reflection I think we both had a point, and it’s a debate as relevant today as back then.
There’s a piece of analysis that’s surely relevant, even if it’s not the be-all-and-end-all. Every year, a group ranks the Premier League clubs by resources (as reflected in wage bills, transfer spend etc) and compares that ranking to actual performance in the league.
There’s always a high correlation. Depressingly – if not surprisingly – the best-resourced clubs tend to challenge for the title while the least resourced ones are battling at the bottom. Hence the case for realism.
But there are always striking exceptions. The years I first looked at the analysis were 2011-12 and 2012-13 – our first two years back in the Prem. In those years, two clubs dramatically under-performed (i.e. finished much worse than their resources would have predicted).
While you think about who they were, another two clubs dramatically over-performed (i.e. finished much higher than resources would have suggested). They were Everton under David Moyes (a better manager than we now think of him), and Norwich under Paul Lambert and Chris Hughton.
Norwich were clearly in the bottom three in terms of resources at their disposal, but finished mid-table in both of those years.
Before you start penning angry comments, this is not an apology for Hughton. However you choose to allocate the blame, I fully acknowledge that we should have done better in 2013-14 (when we actually had more resources to play with).
So, I believe we should have been proud of our club’s performance in those two years. What I saw though was a dramatic rise in expectations that still haven’t abated. While we were justifiably disappointed with the relegation season, some of our wider expectations seem, to me, to be less than reasonable.
To conclude the case for measured expectations: in the context of today’s Premier League, most of our players are journeymen doing their best. Wes Hoolahan and Nathan Redmond have special talents, but limitations; if Wes had pace and Redderz consistency, they wouldn’t be at Norwich. We have a bright young manager learning his trade in the toughest of environments.
Having said all that, is it the way I feel? Of course not. I can’t settle for us being ordinary. We’ve found ways to over-achieve before and I fully expect us to do it again.
However, I can’t go as far as our old contributor. Heaven forbid that we go the way of Leeds and Villa, and think we’re grander than we actually are. If that happens – and there are worrying signs of it among some of our fans – the worst result is we’ll fail to give Alex and his players the full backing they need and deserve.
I expect us to make signings in January, despite the super-inflated prices clubs will demand. But we won’t be signing Robert Lewandowski or John Stones. We’ll add what we can to our quality (as we’ve done with Robbie Brady, Matt Jarvis and Youssouf Mulumbu) but it’ll still be a team effort that determines our fate, including the role of the fans.
As to those teams who under-achieved in 2011-13? Have a guess. When we reach ten comments, all will be revealed.
Ooh, Stewart, you’re such a tease!
As is often the case, it’s all about managing expectations and whilst also seeking to remove that sense of entitlement felt by some.
Anything above 10th, whilst still possible, is highly unlikely. The mythical “next level.”
What we probably all desire is a comfortable season of 50 plus points and never having to “look over the shoulder” at the bottom three.
Getting there is, of course, another matter entirely.
A cunning ploy to boost the comments total – of course what you forget is the availability of the internet for answers!
Expectation/reality – that old double edged sword for Norwich fans. Those who want more, more, more will always be the ones shouting the loudest.
We need steady evolution not overnight revolution – the former is a slow and often painful process while the latter is the road to disaster unless it’s funded by an oil magnate and foreign ‘stars’.
I remember Blackpool, a club with a far more distinguished history than ourselves, making a cracking start to their last PL season.
We’re in a sticky patch right now but I’m backing Alex to find the answers.
Another article following the usual theme of ‘we are out of our depth..please do not expect too much’.
Realistic supporters (ie not fantacists) never expect us to be battling it out with the upper echelon season long and this is left to the surprisingly high proportion of ‘supporters’ who ‘live’ on another planet.
What every supporter has a right to expect however is that we recruit players that are capable at this level. Post Paul Lambert we really have not had a clue with our recruitment policy and the majority of those bought in have been second rate and in general continue to be a weight round our neck drawing on the resources that we now have.
Amateurishly our answer this season clearly was ‘if we do nothing we can’t get much wrong’.Feed them a couple of loan players and if we have got it wrong again we can send them back!
We did not need to be experts to realise that to embark on this season without a competitive centre back and a pacy striker capable of putting the ball in the net was tantamount to suicide..giving up before the season began.
No Mr Lewis sensible supporters do not expect too much but they have every right to expect our Management and Board to be up to the job at every level!
Good piece Stewart, I too get frustrated with fellow fans who have unrealistic expectations. My current bugbear is with those who blame ‘the board’ for not buying the ‘right’ players for doing things ‘on the cheap’. The board have made mistakes, but to suggest that they haven’t backed the manager with as much cash for players they can is ridiculous and needs to be called out as such. PS I think the underachievers were Villa and QPR
Excellent, practical piece which pretty much sums up why supporting Norwich City is a constant and frustrating battle of sense and sensibilities. Sadly, when Hoots departed, he took with him the boxes of medium and long fuses, only the short ones are left!
Ooh what a great article about expectations!
What I feel you omitted was the great sense of community we have in Norfolk to support “our” only? Top football club! Bit
controversial I know but true.We are truely ONE big family.
The one thing we do have in bucket loads if not money is
commitment-loyalty & support X
As said WES might not be blessed with speed but as we all have witnessed! He possesses unbelievable magic X envied by many!As for Reddz at 21 he’s still at school!
2/3rds of a football game is won in the head!!!
I truely believe we have a team that can upset a few of the so called “bigger teams”! in this league.
It’s just two final tweeks that I think we have to show!
1)Show more ruthlessness in front of goal-mentally see the ball in the net BEFORE you hit it!
2)Drag players out of position more in the boxes!
I think what I find difficult is that we still aren’t competitive in the transfer market after 4 of the last 5 seasons in the Premier League. IF we paid the wages, players the likes of Leicester manage to attract would come but there seems a massive reluctance to go for it.
Nice piece Stew – not much to add but I’ve edged us ever closer to the magical ‘ten’ 🙂
#9?
Stewart – you forgot the other ‘e’ word which has plagued us in recent seasons..entitlement. Many a debate on that topic was had round about this time last year when the Adams-era was going pear shaped.
It seems to be rearing its ugly head again already. “We’ve bought a season ticket,” or “We’ve travelled a long way,” makes some think they are entitled to a great performance or 3 points from the team every time. If only it were that simple.
CityBoy(5) – like the fuses line. Hughton’s Brighton are certainly lighting up the Champ. so far if not exactly playing electric football.
If I’m #10, do I get a prize?
Every set of supporters would like to believe they are among the best: “The one thing we do have in bucket loads… is commitment-loyalty & support” (Canary Mary, 6). But the boos after WBA and the comments on public forums prove the opposite.
Until we admit the reality, we won’t be able to start improving our levels of loyalty & support.
The players, manager and board work hard together, with the best intentions, to try to move the club forward, even if they can’t always succeed. The only part of this club whose effort I seriously question, win or loose, is the fans.
*Come what may*, we need to support the honest efforts of the professionals at the club, while actively resisting those ‘supporters’ whose booing and unconstructive criticism can only damage the club.
Before the start of this season I saw a chart of the wealth of all 20 PL owners, with Delia at the bottom. My point being that given our ownership and our recent visits to the Championship, despite our debt free status is likely that our wage bill will be in the bottom three of the division – and history shows its that not transfer spending that dictates league position.
I therefore expect to get relegated – anything else is a bonus. Does it bother me? Not really, because in the nearly 30 years of supporting NCFC I’ve realised that what league we are in makes very little difference to my match day experience. As a Norwich fan I can’t pick and choose my moments of glory and if a dodgy season in the PL is the price to pay for a glorious day at Wembley last May so be it.
What frustrates me is the system, how league results are driven by income and not managerial ability, locking out clubs like ours (& Forest, Derby, Southampton etc etc.). Moan at the board if you like (but personally I’d take them over Randy Lerner or Mike Ashley any day), but if you really want to see Norwich in the Top 10 again take the money out of the game – stop watching the Champions League, cancel your Sky subscription.
I think many fans expectations are born from past glories. Prime examples are Newcastle, Villa and Leeds – who all had glory days, like ourselves, and get frustrated when they aren’t replicated. Many people expect us to get mid table security like we did under Lambert and Hughton. In Hughton’s relegation season, fans were expecting more – predicting, with a bigger budget, a top 10 finish.
Other frustrations come from seeing rivals, like Swansea, Southampton and Leicester – who have recently spent longer in the lower leagues than us, work their way into the top 10. If they can do it, why can’t we?
Fans will point to the board because these are where the decisions are made. I personally like and support them, however there is certainly room for improvement. I have no qualms about money, however Grant, Roeder, Gunn and Adams were all poor appointments and we are currently suffering from a disappointing transfer window. From the outside, it seemed fairly shambolic, to be honest.
In answer to your question, I hope rather than expect! It’s proved difficult to predict a norwich city season! I believe that we can avoid relegation. Alex Neil is an excellent manager, however he is inexperienced. High expectations from fans puts too much pressure on him, which is unfair.
Thanks for everyone’s comments. Some really good & thoughtful stuff – and I don’t just mean those who agree with me!
llamaman (4) – I suspect you’re not the only one who figured it out, but spot on with Villa and QPR.
Cosmo (10) – as it always says on my Golden Goal ticket: “No win this time – try again”
John (3) – Your characterisation of my view (“we’re out of our depth…please don’t expect too much”) is a touch unfair, but I have more sympathy for your feelings than you might think.
Certainly we have a right to expect the Board to take obvious actions (sometimes our current Board has gone way beyond that, e.g. in the appointment of Alex Neil). Again, I’d quibble with the detail of your criticism rather than its essence. It’s clear to me that McNally tried hard to sign a competitive centre back and a pacy striker in the summer; Alex Neil has hinted strongly that deals were in place and we were let down by other parties. So there’s a fair criticism that we didn’t get deals over the line, but not that we didn’t try.
Lots of others I should acknowledge, but I have to single out Canary Mary (6) – fine passion, and a spot-on reference to community. But we have to channel it into supporting our boys.
OTBC
Stewart, Thanks for your response.
I remain though unconvinced that the Board did make a reasonable effort to bring in the right personnel as every attempted deal commenced with such ludicrously low bids (of course if the media and Steve Bruce are to be believed) that everybody lost interest and almost the will to live! Even the loan deals were long drawn out. We simply ran out of time and that is unforgivable!
I admire Mr McNally’s determination not to pay ridiculously inflated prices but his plan is apparently to establish our Club in the PL. To achieve this he cannot expect a Manager (however talented) to do the job with second rate players.
John (15) I’m afraid many will reach the same conclusion as yourself, simply because insufficient, or, in the eyes of some, the wrong players, came through the doors of Colney.
The reality is that only a fraction of what appears within the press, certainly at national level, is anywhere near accurate, both in terms of targets identified and transfer fees quoted.
The reality is that transfer dealings are notoriously opaque. If only it was like supermarket shopping and you could pick a centre back and striker off the shelf at your own leisure!
John P. (15) – out of interest, which ‘first rate’ players would you like to see the club try to buy to strengthen the squad in January?
It’s all very well waving a magic wand from the sidelines but put some names to your plan.
Gary (16) I completely understand what you’re saying and, in essence, you’re right. A lot of what we hear through the media is purely gossip, however at the end of the day they didn’t get the bodies in and we are now in a position where we, in 16th position, have Ryan Bennett and Andre Wisdom to plug the gaps in our out of form, leaky defence – with Man City, Swansea, Chelsea and Arsenal next. It’s not enough at this level.
Steve Bruce proved to be a more reliable source of information that showed how we were approached at least one transfer by saying, “Norwich came in two weeks ago with a bid of £2m, £2.5m and then £3m. That’s ridiculous for someone who’s 23, played two years in the Premier league and who has become a regular international”.
Like the previous poster said, I am all for avoiding inflated fees but bids like those for Brady is just wasting everyone’s time.
Again, it is also frustrating to see other clubs swooping in and buying players when we are coming up short on deadline day. And, before you say that those clubs have bigger budgets etc, I seem to remember Paul Lambert being able to bring in his targets fairly early on in the transfer window – on less of a budget than we’re on now.
The only defence that I can think of is that 1) AN was scouting in a completely market at Hamilton, 2) He was only at City for 5 months – all of which he must have been focused on the up-coming games, 3) He didn’t know which division we would be in this season and 4) Our apparent lack of knowledge of the European markets.
Now that he has had some time to get used to the premiership, identify what we need and scout around a bit more, I really hope to see some signings that will help improve the squad. It will be tricky for him though… January is not the best time to be buying players!
I am being critical, however it is frustrating – for all parties, I’m sure. I think the other transfers were good and I have full support that AN will be the man to keep us up this year.
My minimum expectation over time is that as an absolute minimum we should always be in the top 26 clubs in the country.
So when we are not in the Premier League we must expect to at least make the playoffs in the Championship.
Yes, we want to stay in the top 20, well top 17 actually, as long as possible but in reality clubs like ourselves always get relegated eventually – so fans of Stoke, Southampton, Swansea and Palace etc. might want to enjoy their time in the top league whilst they can. Like other previous high flyers such as Bolton, one day their managers will move on and they are only one dodgy appointment away from a relegation scrap, which won’t necessarily end well.
Since McNally came we have met that expectation every season bar his first – which was impossible as we were in League One. In the previous period of Delia’s ownership I think we had only managed it about 3 times. So I find it pretty difficult to justify serious criticism of his and his board’s overall performance.
However, that is only my expectation. It doesn’t stop me hoping very much that they can find a way of bringing our salary budget up to the level of the mid-table clubs in the Premier League. Because that is what is needed, if we are to establish ourselves for a longer run in the division, and that is what I do feel they have failed to do, so far.
When it comes down to it if a quality player became available at say £12m – and assuming Neil thought he was worth it – I think we would find the fee. But the problem would be satisfying his wage demands. We need that extra quality, and we are not getting it at the moment.
What we don’t know is what Alex Neil is asking for. He clearly wanted Brady – nobody else did, so we were right to negotiate as much as we could – and he got him. Did he have targets he thought ought to be within our reach but was told they weren’t? We don’t really know.
And finally I really do hope we can have a good go at a cup competition because to me success breeds success, as Sunderland showed in the back end of last season. It would be so good to have something to provide a bit of relief from a relegation scrap week in week out.
I am interested that many posters seem to take out their frustrated at our failure to attract quality signings on the negotiation process and assumptions about our lack of willingness to pay the wages. Anyone who has ever negotiated successfully knows that you always start with a low bid and that you go up in small stages. If that takes time, so be it. Above all don’t use the Brady saga as a demonstration of our poor negotiating tactics, WE GOT OUR MAN!!
I don’t know why the much touted “quality” signings failed to materialise but I’d rather we were trying to add high quality defenders and failing than bidding silly money for Tyrone Mings. I’m not liking us to Arsenal but there is no point adding bodies if you are not adding quality beyond what you have.
Of course I would love us to establish ourselves in the way Swansea and Southampton have but my nightmare would be trying to do that and turning into Portsmouth or Leeds in the process.
Not much to add, other my continuing admiration for the quality of comments.
I’m not ‘in the know’ (haven’t heard that phrase for a while), but Alex Neil did confirm we’d met the asking price for a couple of players and expected to sign them, but were thwarted.
I know the Brady signing was painfully drawn out, but (i) you can work on more than one deal at a time, and (ii) Hull’s initial demand, as I understand it, was £15m. Bournemouth might have coughed up, but I’m glad we didn’t.
David (20) we said mate, you’ve put it better than I could
Rich (18) you’re absolutely right, we simply didn’t get enough defensive cover in.
I don’t think that was down to either our late promotion, or the AN factor. These things are usually planned well in advance. DMcN admitted we had a Championship list and a Premier League list that they were working to before they knew which division we would be in.
Clearly, the execution of the Premier League option came up well short of expectations probably for the club and fans alike and I guess we’ll never know why.
One thing I would add in relation to the Steve Bruce comments, whilst many saw them as a source of acute embarrassment for the club, I, personally, thought they were more telling for a different reason. They told me that Hull were actually assigned to the fate of losing Brady and he was actually trying to drum up interest from other clubs in order to get the best price for his player. I don’t blame him for this.
Also, Hull had time on their side, hence why they were in no hurry to conclude the deal. It’s easy to blame the buying club for the delay but it takes two parties (three if you include agents) for a deal to be completed.