I’ve always enjoyed a good conspiracy theory.
You know the sort of thing; the idea that Neil Armstrong’s giant leap for mankind might have been filmed in a Hollywood studio; or that Elvis Presley faked his death and is riding Shergar round a quiet paddock somewhere.
When Mike Jones pointed to the penalty spot at White Hart Lane on Boxing Day, it gave rise to a new theory; namely that Norwich City are the victims of an officiating conspiracy and destined to fall foul (excuse the pun) of every penalty decision going.
The architect of the theory is a close friend of mine who bent my ear for over an hour about the sheer injustice of it all and his genuine belief that ‘football’ has it in for us.
It’s possibly a smaller leap of faith than the one Neil Armstrong (supposedly) made to imagine that Sepp Blatter possesses a secret lair in a hollowed out volcano somewhere, from where he masterminds all sorts of evil plans.
However I figure that he’s had far more pressing matters to deal with than trying to orchestrate our return to the Championship.
But the theory goes that as one of the divisions lesser lights, ‘Little Norwich’ are not afforded the benefit of the refereeing decisions that higher-profile clubs enjoy.
Give one against Chelsea or Manchester United and it generates headlines. Give one against Norwich and the worst you get is a glare from Alex Neil. Although to be fair, I wouldn’t fancy being on the receiving end of one of those.
In common with most theories, there are certain statistics that appear to back it up.
For example, Harry Kane’s spot-kick was the fifth we have conceded this season. In contrast, we have yet to be awarded a single penalty and our ‘minus five’ record is the worst in the league.
It’s a familiar pattern. Looking back across our last four seasons in the top flight, in 134 games we have been awarded a miserly 6 penalties and conceded 21.
If the old adage is true that these things even themselves up eventually then we’re surely set for a bumper 2016.
Thirteen other teams shared Premier League status in those four seasons and the comparative records are listed below;
Manchester City………………..+18
Manchester United……………..+16
Chelsea………………………….+14
Liverpool…………………………+11
Tottenham Hotspur………………+3
Swansea City………………………0
Stoke City………………………….-2
Arsenal…………………………….-3
Sunderland………………………..-3
Everton…………………………….-5
Newcastle United…………………-9
Aston Villa………………………..-10
West Bromwich Albion………….-12
Norwich City……………………..-15
(Apologies if the numbers don’t align; it’s a WordPress thing. Ed.)
At this point, if my friend does read this, he will undoubtedly be feeling fully vindicated and point to the big club bias, particularly towards the Manchester teams.
However as with all statistics the key is in the interpretation. For example, is it really surprising that the stronger teams who dominate possession in and around their opponents’ boxes win more penalties? I’d suggest not.
I’d also suggest that tactics and formations have a large bearing and are a significant factor in our low penalty count.
Consider Leicester and Watford. It may surprise to learn that they sit first and second on the list of penalties awarded this season with twelve between them so far.
Even allowing for their current success, neither could be considered as possessing big club reputations. However what they both possess are two centre-forwards who operate in a fast-breaking 4-4-2 and who press the opponents defenders high up the pitch with the ability to run in behind.
City fans have witnessed both Jamie Vardy and Troy Deeney go tumbling in our box having got goal side of the defence and drawing a challenge.
By contrast, Norwich don’t possess a quick counter and our attacking play tends to be less direct. The slower, more measured build-up seldom stretches the opposition through the length of the pitch.
Instead we look to work the ball from side to side, with attacking passes often coming from the flanks rather than through the middle. As a result, we have rarely seen our lone striker played in behind the defence or go one on one with the keeper.
Arguably our two strongest penalty claims came when Connor Whickham and Seb Bassong contested a header against Palace in the season opener and when Willian bundled into the back of Robbie Brady at Stamford Bridge.
In both instances the City player was stationary and the challenges looked clumsy rather than heinous. Even allowing for my obvious bias, I believe both should have been awarded but that’s with the benefit of replays and at the time neither appeared ‘stonewallers’.
As for the number we concede, Harry Kane and Raheem Sterling joined Vardy and Deeney in managing to get in behind our backline. In those circumstances any touch normally sends the attacker sprawling and makes it hard for a referee to resist pointing to the spot.
It’s also worth noting that both the penalty at Watford and the first at the Etihad came from individual errors; Tettey getting caught in possession and Ruddy dropping a cross and then chasing the ball around the area like a farmer trying to catch a chicken around a coop.
It’s those small margins where a momentary lack of concentration often proves so costly at the highest level.
Of the Chelsea incident Alex Neil said;
“I felt after 30 minutes of this game we should have had a penalty. I spoke to the fourth official but as I say generally there hasn’t been too many times when we have been on the wrong end of the decisions. I have said referees have a hard job but it gets extremely frustrating when you are one of the smaller clubs it becomes tough and frustrating. We are not going to come here and have five or six opportunities so when you do get a penalty you hope you get it.”
Frustrating? Yes. But nothing more than that; no Machiavellian plot; no grand conspiracy.
And if either my mate or Elvis is reading this, I’d love to know what you both think.
You can follow Steve on Twitter @stevocook
Whilst I agree there is no conspiracy, I find it difficult to believe that there has been no occasion in our last 105 Premier League away games that have warranted a penalty for us. Our last away pen was at Ipswich in September 1994,
We just don’t seem to get the benefit of the doubt, I’m sure some of those Flavour of the month Vardy gets would not be awarded to us & don’t get me started on Bournemouth getting a late penalty at WBA when the foul was a yard outside the box
I blame Swiss Sepp for all the world’s problems – like the idea of him living in the ‘Blatt cave’ though.
There are too many ‘suspicious minds’ but I think you’ve put that lack of penalties conspiracy theory to bed – good stating. We just don’t get enough bodies in the box in games for decisions to be made our way – Redderz especially should be causing more problems in that respect.
If anyone can claim that their style of play doesn’t get enough favourable decisions from 12 yards, it must be Arsenal – amazing they’ve conceded more than been given in that time.
As for Elvis – he fell foul of drugs and burgers and paid the ultimate penalty. He has left the stadium.
There are also some players who are very good at winning penalties, for example Jonny Howson is not. In the Southampton game, locked at 0-0 Howson got behind the defenders, tried to hook the ball into the corner, firing wide. But I have very little doubt really top ‘penalty winners’ gain a spot kick from there (great strikers bury it, but it’s a different skill). Just my view but I can’t think of many Norwich players who have really been good at getting free kicks or penalties, maybe Holt did a bit? Certainly doesn’t explain it all, and i’m sure tactics and dominating opponents actually plays the majority part but it’s just my thought
OTBC
A fine example of fair and balanced analysis! The first thing I learned in stats is that correlation (in this case, the big teams get more penalties) is not causation.
One thing that I think does work against us (and other newly-promoted teams) is the officials’ personal familiarity with players of the established Prem clubs – you can see the cosy conversations in almost every game. But it’s not a major factor. The bottom line is that Steve hits the nail on the head: if we spent more time in the opposition penalty area, we’d get more penalties.
It’s not a conspiracy theory – it’s a fact.
Referees openly admit that they are swayed by the crowd – the larger the crowd, the more they are swayed – and equally the lesser the standing of the club, the less it matters.
But aside from that, one need only look at the opening day of the season, and there are numerous other examples – James Vaughan’s goal against everton in Lambert’s first season in the permier league, springs to mind.
if you really want a conspiracy theory, and actually believe refs to be bent – look at the sponsors of many clubs – betting companies
The interesting thing is that Swansea are at the top of the ‘lesser’ clubs in that list. Of all the smaller clubs they are the least reactive (or have been over those years) and have the most possession in the opponents’ half and therefore penalty area.
Stevie Cook, calling the shots! How’s it going, matie?! Came here via the Pink ‘Un board, and nicely surprised to find your mugshot at the top 😉
Two more thoughts on the penalty issue that are worth considering:
Better players are better penalty seekers. The likes of Aguero and Rooney tumble in the box like a giraffe on ice skates. They are not just better players, but better faller-overs as well.
Some teams are more honest than others. Some managers train their teams to stay on their feet and play fair. Might help explain some of the negative figures in your table.