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The pitfalls of pre-season forecasting – and how to deal with that old Bear of Relegation

22nd March 2016 By Stewart Lewis 7 Comments

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OK, I’ll do it.

I’ve been critical of others, sometimes including my fellow Norwich fans, for conveniently forgetting what they’ve said or failing to take responsibility for their statements.

So – with stiff drink in hand – I’m ready to bite the bullet and re-visit my pre-season predictions.  In exchange, perhaps I can beg some indulgence.

Gentle readers: I know you’re good guys and won’t be too harsh on me.  It would also be really nice if we could agree, at this stage, that two out of three isn’t bad.

I thought Arsenal – who I’ll come back to later – would challenge for the title, along with Man City.   In case anyone might check back, I’d better come clean with the other part of that prediction:  Chelsea to win it.

At the other end, I forecast that Villa and Newcastle would be relegation candidates.  My other nomination was (pauses for large gulp of whisky) Leicester.

As for City, I forecast us finishing 15th. In fairness, with a little kinder rub of the green and better concentration we could be there.   I thought our key players – you’re probably starting to appreciate why I proposed the ‘two out of three’ deal – would be Brady, Redmond and (cough) Mulumbu.

(Apologies if you’re reading, Jonny.  By way of restitution, you’re getting my vote for Player of the Season).

I have divided loyalties about the Premier League title.   My golf partner and the boyfriend of my niece (more about her a little later), both of whom I like very much, are avid Arsenal fans.  I remind them that it’s more agonising at the bottom than the top, and it’s hard to sympathise with Arsenal’s players.  Equally, though, it’s hard to see friends suffering.

Aside from fans of Arsenal and Spurs, however, surely no-one with football in their veins could begrudge Leicester completing their fairytale.  The one we almost realised, of course, in 1992-93.

Many of these thoughts, of course, can and should wait for the end of the season.  And what an ending it’s shaping up to be.  If I pushed back on the pessimism of our fans a fortnight ago, I’m now wondering if I should be trying to rein in the optimism. “We’ll survive easily” said one Twitter enthusiast on Sunday.  Easily??  Norwich??

We’ve improved our chances, that’s all.   As usual, we can take our lead from Alex Neil: he points out that we’ve created a platform, but we’ll only know the importance of Saturday after the next games.

Happily, as fans we’re far from powerless.  Our belief, and its translation into vocal backing, can genuinely help the club we love.  Though I hated not being able to go to The Hawthorns, it was wonderful compensation to hear On the Ball City loud and clear over the radio.

Having said that, we’d better be ready for the rollercoaster of this season to have saved its wildest and steepest twists for the final few weeks.

Although Palace are dropping precariously, I still believe this fight will be between our beloved City and the two giants – perhaps dinosaurs – of the north east.  It may be many things, but it won’t be straightforward.

I’ve invoked many names to the cause of my views on City, including Tolstoy, Benjamin Franklin and Shakespeare.  Now it’s time to add my niece Lindsay.

Fifteen years ago (at the age of 10) she told me a story that has resonance in many areas of life, but in particular City’s current battle with Newcastle and Sunderland.

There’s been much debate about the ‘magic number’ of points needed for premier League survival this year.  But Lindsay’s story gets to the heart of the matter.

It concerns two boys hiking in the woods.  Suddenly their path is blocked by a bear.  One boy drops to the ground, opens his bag and takes out a pair of running shoes.  His companion is incredulous:  “You’re crazy – you’ll never outrun that bear.”  As he laces up the shoes, the first boy calmly replies: “I don’t have to outrun the bear.  I just have to outrun you”.

The relegation bear is eyeing us up, together with our companions Newcastle and Sunderland.  We’ve let it get alarmingly close, but we’ve now got our running shoes on.   We can outrun our lumbering rivals.  Let’s do it.


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Filed Under: Column, Stewart Lewis

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Comments

  1. el dingo says

    22nd March 2016 at 7:59 am

    It takes an honest man to look back at his own predictions. Mine were exactly the same as Stewart’s with the exception of Sunderland in for Newcastle (I admit I expected Leicester to drop too and now I want them to win it). I predicted 17th for us – Oh Lordy let me be right on that one. There’s another version of the running shoes anecdote that involves one man and a Lion, but I’ll spare your readers the details. Good article and a nice read.

    Reply
  2. Iwansgingergoatee says

    22nd March 2016 at 9:53 am

    Well, how nice it was to watch to watch MOTD without a cushion covering my eyes for the Norwich highlights. Lucky goal but good finish from Brady. Yes survival is totally in our own hands now. With a bit of heart, desire and passion we will be here next season as well. I think it’s imperative that we stick with Alex Neil ( or Alex O’ Neil, as the Birmingham Mail quoted him as) whether we stay up or go down. This is a new horizon for city- even though it may not seem like it. We have a good, enthusiastic, young, hungry manager. Who I genuinely believe will not ‘walk’ until the job is done. I really do think that if we stick with him and support him the next two to three years could be really special !!
    Leicester are a great example of not having players that are world beaters or a setup that show they are capable of champions league, yet there is the strong possibility that the might of real or Barca could be winging their way to Gary ‘legs’ Linekers home town next season. That proves that with the right setup the right mental attitude and the ability to be confident and enjoy ourselves that the possibilities are endless.

    Watch this space!!

    Let’s all do a Leicester

    Reply
  3. Keith B says

    22nd March 2016 at 10:18 am

    If it’s any consolation Stewart I have a Patent running: Burnley for promotion (looking very good), Gillingham for promotion (looking possible, through the play-offs)and Leicester for … well I’m sure you can guess the missing word. Put it this way, the bookies aren’t offering to cash in the bet early and cut their potential losses.

    I wonder about Alex Neill’s own pre-season predictions. Presumably he expected his midfield to revolve around Mulumbu and Dorrans, whom he signed, not Howson and O’Neill that he inherited. It seems astonishing that they are having to play U-21 matches to get game time.

    Reply
  4. Russell S. says

    22nd March 2016 at 10:42 am

    As a fellow columnist, I too gave my wildly inaccurate prediction back in August along with other writers – here for all to chortle at;

    https://norwichcity.myfootballwriter.com/2015/08/07/columnists-predict-on-the-eve-of-the-big-ko-the-mfw-team-give-us-their-thoughts-on-what-awaits/

    As for running from bears, however good your shoes are the advice is to stay put, don’t make eye contact and talk softly to them – maybe our lads could try that with our two NE rivals?

    Reply
  5. Gary Field says

    22nd March 2016 at 8:12 pm

    Thanks for reminding us Russ how bad my predictions were!

    I suspect many neutrals will prefer one of the so called big teams to survive at our expense. I care not for such preferences as survival surely has to be earnt, rather than a given right and long may it continue to be so.

    Reply
  6. Stewart Lewis says

    22nd March 2016 at 8:29 pm

    Thanks, everyone.

    Russ (4): It’s a deal: you stay put and talk softly to the bear, I’ll don my running shoes and get the hell out of there.

    Reply
  7. Stewart Lewis says

    23rd March 2016 at 8:44 am

    Gary (5): Hear, hear.

    It’s something that Villa fans are struggling to come to terms with. And of course a lesson for us.

    Reply

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