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Yo-yo? For City, Boro and Burnley smart use of ‘parachute’ should ensure Prem is never far away

14th May 2016 By Paul Armstrong 22 Comments

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I didn’t want to intrude on private grief this week, but having seen the various thoughtful articles on here – notably Ed’s yesterday, which made some valid points about my team (Boro) – I thought it might be time to chip in with a few words of cautious encouragement.

I’m genuinely sorry Norwich went down. I’ve always had a yellow and green soft spot, as I mentioned in a previous blog. And I’ve left BBC Sport now, so have my weekends back, and fancied another trip to friendly Norfolk, rather than hostile Wearside, next season.

Rick Waghorn and I could have bored my wife stupid again over a curry with exaggerated stories of our college football prowess, and Adam Drury is no longer around to compound the hangover by heading a 94th minute equaliser.

And both the NE’s “massive clubs” going down would have been hilarious, although at least the more deserving of the two has gone. I’m tempted to send my pre-programmed Championship postcode satnav for use in Mike Ashley’s collapsible car next year.

I even went to Burton Albion for a (very enjoyable) League Cup outing last season, so he’d be able to get there, too, in his Sports Direct cheapo replica shirt and matching squirty flower.  I wrote “Quelle Dommage” on a friend’s very rude and funny Newcastle-related Facebook post this week, and I believe Lee Charnley was straight on the phone to Bordeaux offering £15 million for “the boy Dommage”.

Anyway, I digress, look at the facts: Burnley and Norwich are about to swap divisions for a third successive season, and that could easily happen again next year. The parachute payments are apparently £25 milliion this season, and £20m and £10m respectively if you were still down for a second and third season. Admittedly, those payments are about to get bigger still, which is why Steve Gibson gambled last summer and ploughed money into a squad which had missed out at the final hurdle to you guys last summer.

But £25 million next season, with some judicious transfer business, will put the relegated clubs at a tremendous advantage again. A club like Ipswich – just to give you a cheery example – can only dream of having that sort of money at their disposal.

Admittedly, certain clubs – QPR, Bolton, Fulham – have failed to exploit that advantage in recent years, but they are all smaller clubs than Norwich, and also, more importantly, had an off-field set-up that wasn’t equipped to deal with relegation.

Those who have been half-expecting to go down, and budgeted accordingly – Burnley last season, West Brom in the past – can, and should, bounce straight back. Of the three relegated clubs this year, I can confidently predict that Norwich will have been the one in the Burnley camp, planning-wise.

Plus you’re a much bigger and better-supported club than our strange and angry friends from outer Lancashire.

I know your Chief Exec. has gone, and there will be some player, and possibly coaching, changes at Carrow Road over the summer, but Villa need to completely reboot everything and start again, and Newcastle finally threw money around this season on anybody from anywhere with no thought of how Saturday-Tuesday-Saturday at Rotherham, Huddersfield and co. might pan out.

Jonjo Shelvey may turn out to be next season’s Joey Barton – a fired-up, village idiot thug who does quite well at that level – but most of the others are on vast wages with seemingly no relegation clauses, and will be straight on the phone to their agents when the fixtures come out and they digest the prospect of 46 games against unfamiliar opposition.

So, you wouldn’t put much money on those two genuinely big clubs bouncing back.

Who else is there? Well, quite a lot of sleeping/comatose giants, but without parachute payments, Financial Fair Play means they’re supposed to survive on what they earn. Admittedly, you can ignore that rule and pay the fine later – Leicester, and especially Bournemouth with their secretive Dorset-based Russian backer, did just that in recent seasons – but based simply on attendances, Derby and, maybe Sheffield Wednesday if they can galvanise their absentee thousands, would be the only comparable clubs to Norwich, and one of them may well have gone up via the play-offs by then.

Forest, Leeds and Wolves are big names from the past, but are in varying degrees of disarray off the pitch, and the rest, frankly, look like also-rans unless someone does a Brighton.

So, lick your wounds, keep an eye on the comings and goings over the summer, and get back in there in August for a season where, unlike the Premier League, you will score goals and win a lot of games. I’ve just looked at the Skybet promotion odds and Newcastle are, inexplicably, 11-10 favourites.

That’s presumably because of a flurry of bets from deluded, bare-chested, horse-punching idiots who think Rafa Benitez; a) will stay and; b) knows anything about managing in the Championship.

Back in the real world, Norwich are second favourites at 2-1. I’ve just had some (quite a bit, actually) of that. Just hope you don’t swap divisions with Boro again in the process, but even if you do, we’re lucky to support sensible clubs and to live in the era of parachute payments.

I confidently predict that both clubs will either be in the Premier League or the upper echelons of the Championship for the foreseeable future. And, if I’m wrong, I’ll be out of pocket and Rick Waghorn is paying for our next curry.


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Filed Under: Column, Paul Armstrong

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Comments

  1. One Up One Down says

    14th May 2016 at 10:23 am

    Good article Paul – you’ve justified a degree of optimism in a pragmatic way. I’m unfortunately buried in a cloud of dismay and bewilderment at what has gone on over the last twelve months. Here’s to next season!

    Reply
  2. Burnley FC says

    14th May 2016 at 10:48 am

    ‘Plus you’re a much bigger and better-supported club than our strange and angry friends from outer Lancashire.’

    Clever dick ex BBC meets country bumpkin keyboard warrior leads to puerile stuff like this.

    Reply
  3. Wicklow Claret says

    14th May 2016 at 11:19 am

    My learned friend above has it right – apart from he omitted “failed” (so I hear) BBC wallah.

    Also, you may characterise Joseph Barton as [previously] a thug but “village idiot”..? Wholly inappropriate in a piece about Norfolk – shame on you.

    Very average blog piece.

    Reply
    • Gary Gowers says

      14th May 2016 at 4:26 pm

      Wicklow Claret – Nowt learned about your comment… I’ll give you that.

      As Paul spent 29 years at the Beeb – 14 of them as editor of MotD – and left at a time of his choosing, it’s an interesting interpretation of ‘failed’.

      Who knew it was possible to get promoted to the richest league in the world AND get so angry! Respect.

      Reply
  4. Paul Armstrong says

    14th May 2016 at 11:34 am

    Ha, ha – greetings to Burnley FC. Yes, anyone who writes anything is “a clever dick” to some extent, and leaving the BBC allows me to express a non-watered down viewpoint. I have a much stronger private one on Joey Barton, Sean Dyche, the Tarkowski transfer, Alistair Campbell, Bernard Ingham etc. but I’ll spare you that. On that sentence, “bigger and better-supported club” is correct: 27,000 average in a relegation season v 16,000 for promotion (and yes, I know you’re a smaller town); “strange and angry” – Joey Barton and your fans swearing and obsessing about Boro instead of celebrating the title is “strange and angry” in my book. I called you “friends” which was conciliatory. And “outer Lanceshire” is true – you’re a couple of miles from Yorkshire and even draw quite a lot of support from there, including the aforementioned Margaret Thatcher/Yorkshire Police mouthpiece, Bernard Ingham. And I was nice about the sensible way your club’s run. Peace and love.

    Reply
  5. Alan says

    14th May 2016 at 11:34 am

    “…. strange and angry friends from outer Lancashire” – bit rich after the baseless rantings of Aitor Karanka this season.

    Also, define what makes a club “big”, it seems to me that history and tradition play a part along with crowd size and budgets. Burnley have richer history and tradition than Norwich and Middlesbrough put together.

    Reply
  6. Cosmo P. says

    14th May 2016 at 11:39 am

    Boro need to strengthen hugely to be ready for the PL (something we didn’t achieve) – can they attract sufficient quality? Have my doubts.

    We came up with the best defence but look where they got us. Not convinced by your forwards either.

    comment #2 – must be the fabled gritty Northern wit channelled through Alistair Campbell.

    Reply
  7. Michael Mada says

    14th May 2016 at 12:21 pm

    ‘…our strange and angry friends from outer Lancashire…’

    A reasonably good article spoilt again by the oddball negativity towards Burnley, who have been on the receiving end of vitriol from Boro supporters, players and management (especially Karanka) alike from way back when.
    We all know that Joey can go off on one in retaliation (famously verbally, rather than physically these days, which sometimes we find regrettable, though acceptable, for the superb performances he’s made for us this season), but why would you perpetuate this nonsense?
    Make a good point or two and keep professional or you’ll never have much credibility.

    Reply
  8. Mike C says

    14th May 2016 at 1:31 pm

    (2) Well done, in your sentence you’ve just managed to prove the accuracy of the statement you quoted!

    Reply
  9. Bob in Diss says

    14th May 2016 at 2:02 pm

    To be fair to the Burnley ‘massive’ who’ve joined us, we too (Norwich) had our issue with Senor Karanka and his team last season – time wasting tactics, injury feigning and over-exuberant touchline celebration being upper most.
    Revenge is a dish best served cold..preferably at Wembley.

    As for the “country bumpkin” stuff – I’m sure you stroll around your home town in cloth caps with whippets on string, eating tripe or is that a puerile and childish stereotype in 2016?

    Reply
  10. Stewart Lewis says

    14th May 2016 at 2:35 pm

    Must check my Bookmarks – I thought this was a Norwich site! Have to say I didn’t appreciate the depth of animosity between Boro and Burnley.

    Nice article, and grateful for your generosity (much of it deserved). Newcastle and Villa will surely take longer to adjust than Norwich. Assuming we keep Alex Neil, and if we can get our squad changes done quickly, we should be well placed to compete.

    Having said that, we thought much the same in 1985…

    Reply
  11. Paul Armstrong says

    14th May 2016 at 4:04 pm

    Apologies, Norwich fans! Such are current levels of outrage in Burnley that the whole town has followed Joey Barton’s lead in staying angry despite promotion, because they weren’t given a trophy at Charlton while Boro got some pointless pot for finishing second. Anyway, Joey’s at Glasgow Rangers today – his provocative tweets and all round attitude couldn’t possibly cause any problems when they start playing Celtic again next season, could they? The Burnley/Boro such as it is was started, unless I’m much mistaken, by messers Barton and Dyche pointing fingers at Boro for daring to buy players. They, meanwhile, were in the process of paying a small fortune to Brentford for Andre Gray, then unsettlied his team-mate James Tarkowski to such an extent that he refused to play against Burnley, then promptly joined them. For more millions. If you think Boro have an issue (and to be honest, we’re not losing sleep about it) speak to any Brentford fan about their season effectively being wrecked before it started. Anyway, no-one in Norfolk cares about two small Northern towns bickering and it will doubtless all calm down if Joey heads to Scotland and the Old Firm. Though he’ll probably undo the Northern Ireland peace process with one of his deep and meaningful Tweets, the poor, misunderstood love…

    Reply
  12. Paul Armstrong says

    14th May 2016 at 4:11 pm

    Just read Wicklow Claret, not sure what you’d know about the workings of BBC Sport from over there in Ireland, but if you call 29 years in one organisation, including 14 in charge of Match of the Day, then leaving in my 50s of my own volition “failed”, please enlighten me as to your own soaraway success! And whatever trolling is being organised on a Burnley website for daring not to worship Joey and co is not going to phase me. I can keep replying to this stuff forever, after all those years of all 20 PL clubs and supporters thinking Match of the Day running orders were biased against them!

    Reply
  13. Paul Armstrong says

    14th May 2016 at 4:34 pm

    Agree entirely with Cosmo P, btw. Boro could well be very similar to Norwich – the defence has been sound (yes, Daniel Ayala now looks a good player, honestly) but there aren’t enough goals in the team without strengthening. Burnley do have two good goalscorers, by contrast. And Bob in Diss, yes that Friday night game did degenerate a bit last season, but I think we were well-behaved at Wembley. So well-behaved, we virtually weren’t there at all! And one valid point from a Burnley fan – yes, Alan, for a town of Burnley’s size to have won everything in the game and produced so many great players is absolutely staggering, and something Boro, Norwich and most other clubs will never achieve. I think Jimmy Mcllroy, Jimmy Adamson, and even the marvellous players I remember like Martin Dobson were rather classier, on and off the pitch, than dear old Joey….

    Reply
  14. Paul says

    14th May 2016 at 6:10 pm

    Just one point I’d like to make against Paul Armstrong’s splendid article- I also had no idea of the animosity between Burnley and Boro. However, motd are always definitely anti Norwich, especially Hansen, Shearer and to a lesser extent Lawro. We’re almost always last and they constantly show Norwich losing….
    OTBC bring on channel 5 highlights!

    Reply
  15. BFC says

    14th May 2016 at 6:15 pm

    Since it’s a Norwich site, first let me say that I fully expect Norwich to come back up again next season, though I hope they do not change places with Burnley for a fourth successive season. Good luck to you.
    With regard to Boro, no idea why some fans felt the need to sing about them during the presentation. As for Barton, I’ve learned to simply tune out his tweets this season. Personally, I’m happy for Boro – poor area and well deserving of this promotion.

    Reply
  16. Paul Armstrong says

    14th May 2016 at 6:59 pm

    Thanks BFC for your Henry Kissinger-like act of diplomacy – I’m sure all that silliness will disappear with Joey B. Never discussed Norwich with Shearer or Lawro, but Hansen (who actually did his last MOTD two years ago) is close friends with Delia and Michael and actually always wanted Norwich to do well, not least because his preferred analysis producer was Mark Golley, a massive Norwich fan. He was never exactly effusive about anyone on the air, but I think the misconception that he had a problem with Norwich started in 93/94 when you were top, but he said you wouldn’t hang on to win the league. Like most neutrals (including me) he’d have rather you won it than Man Utd, but he just didn’t think you would. And you didn’t.

    Reply
  17. Paul Armstrong says

    14th May 2016 at 7:53 pm

    And believe me, Paul, every club thinks they’re hard done to on MOTD. The clubs at the top thinks the programme likes whoever their rivals are and hates them, and at least 15 clubs’ fans think they’re always on last. As for “they constantly show Norwich losing”, well erm, I’m not sure how to point this out diplomatically but, er, well you sort of did lose quite a lot this last season, hence, um, relegation. Even a good producer/your biggest fan (Mark Golley, for example) might just lose his job if his edits missed out the opposition’s goals…

    Reply
  18. Gary Field says

    14th May 2016 at 10:06 pm

    I can only presume that the inclusion of “Burnley” in the title has resulted in this article being picked up in a local newsfeed, hence the influx of comments from their supporters.

    Welcome nevertheless.

    Key to our success next season, or otherwise, is finding out who’s up for the challenge and who’s not. Add in a few players proven at Championship level to freshen things up and we should be there, or thereabouts.

    Reply
  19. Burnley FC says

    14th May 2016 at 10:54 pm

    29 years at the BBC has certainly rubbed off on you. The metropolitan elites bigotry never far from the surface when the mask slips. Tell us about Bernard Ingham….this I must hear

    Reply
  20. el dingo says

    15th May 2016 at 8:36 am

    I just don’t get why Paul Armstrong feels the need to prove his credibility. Sounds like a CV I’d be proud of. And voluntarily escaping from the Ratrace early is something dear to my heart:-) Good luck to Boro – their fans were superb at Wembley, particularly on the Underground back from Wembley Park where I somehow contrived to be a dot of yellow in a sea of red. Not so sure about some of you Burnley lot by the look of the comments. A good read.

    Reply
  21. Paul Armstrong says

    15th May 2016 at 11:06 pm

    Cheers, el dingo – I had similar experiences pre- and post-Wembley. Think both sets of fans are very similar. As for “Burnley FC”, you’ve managed to call me a “country bumpkin” in one post, then part of the “metropolitan elite” in the next. Make your mind up! As for your fellow fan Bernard Ingham, strange that you didn’t realise that you can actually lay claim to both of the most horrendous spin doctors of our times. Here’s something from your local paper: http://www.lancashiretelegraph.co.uk/news/10829565.Burnley_fan_Sir_Bernard_Ingham_s__bigoted_northerners__comments_slammed/?ref=rss

    Reply

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