“Have you thought of an ending?”
“Yes, several, and all are dark and unpleasant”
Tolkien, The Fellowship of the Ring
So, it’s over – no more City games for a while. Worse, Alex Neil has made life difficult for us pundits by summarising the reasons for our failure better and more succinctly than we could.
Alex Neil – surely the key piece of the jigsaw puzzle whose picture reads “We’ll be back”.
“The experience of defeat, or more particularly the manner in which a leader reacts to it, is a crucial part of what makes a winner.” It’s way too early to talk about AN in the same breath as the author of that quote (another Alex, of course). But over the past week I’ve seen some similarities.
Something in the look, in the voice and the words – something that speaks of a man who’s bowed by defeat but not broken; who’ll come back stronger and smarter. A quiet steel.
For now, we’ve lost our steel in the Chief Executive’s office; we need to recruit some more steel on the field; but at least we have it in our manager.
There’ll clearly be significant arrivals and departures on the playing side this summer. I have no inside track, no idea who they’ll be – so naturally I’ll devote the rest of today’s article to it.
We’ll bring in fresh faces, for sure. But there’s an underlying imperative. If any reader has been involved in managing a business whose income dropped 60 per cent at a stroke, they’ll have an idea.
Under David McNally’s direction, we’re as well prepared as any club could be to deal with the shock. However, there’s no getting away from harsh reality.
Our playing budget – ie. transfers plus wages – has to come down, significantly beyond where the relegation clauses (vital as they are) can take us.
I’ve seen suggestions from fans about our summer business, including some who want to keep all our top earners and most valuable assets, then add some. Unless Bournemouth’s billionaire suddenly feels an irresistible urge to relocate to Norfolk, that’s not on. Nor anything like it.
What we can do is something like a repeat of two years ago when we last came down. We sold two of our high earners (Snodgrass and Fer) for big bucks, enabling us to buy some cheaper players (including Jerome and Grabban) who could make a big impact for us in the Championship.
Yes, it’s short-term and leaves us with a new challenge if we manage to go up. But what’s the alternative? We know from bitter experience that once you have a couple of seasons in the Championship, it becomes even harder to escape. Our loan to the Endsleigh wasn’t the quick one we envisaged.
Part of determining who stays and goes, of course, is what we want. Another element is what they want. We’ll only succeed if we have a squad of players who share a full commitment – as in 2011 and 2015 – to the cause of getting us back up.
It would be sad, but surely understandable, if Timm Klose wanted to keep playing in the top division of a major country. Nathan Redmond has to be another likely departure; unless he’s desperate to sign a new contract with us and see it through – and perhaps even then – we can exploit the interest of multiple Premier League clubs to get a good price for him this summer.
(I’m assuming, by the way, that we can quickly put in place an experienced and skilful negotiator for these dealings. It may be easier said than done, but that’s another debate.)
While I’d be surprised if Klose and Redmond didn’t leave us, I’m not so sure about Steven Naismith. He strikes me as someone who won’t have made his move to Norfolk lightly or with a short-term view.
He’ll be disappointed with his contribution since January; my guess is he’ll want to stay and, with a full pre-season under his belt, show us what he can really do.
It would be disappointing if one or two of our young players returning from loan didn’t press their case in pre-season and make a mark in next season’s Championship campaign. That said, it’s clear we also need fresh blood.
Like last summer, the priority positions are central defence and up front. Given that we’re now a bigger fish in a smaller pond, we should be an attractive proposition to ambitious Championship-level players and ought to have more success than a year ago.
I’ll leave it to others to list all the players they fancy the look of. Aided by a scouting set-up that’s much stronger than we had a year ago, Alex Neil will know the kind of characters he’s looking for; that’s enough for me.
I meant to leave room for my Season Awards – that’ll have to wait for another day. There has to be one for the Ipswich fan gloating that City have now had three relegations this century, to Ipswich’s none. We just have to find the right category for him.
Meanwhile let’s sign off with another thought:
“Though no-one can go back and make a new start, anyone can start from now and make a new ending.”
OTBC
Very realistic view, for a change, on the season ahead. Those who seem to think we can just keep the bulk of the squad together and waltz our way through the Championship, might just have another think coming.
In the same way as the Premier League gets stronger every year, so does the Championship, certainly no less so this year, with dignitaries like Newcastle and Aston Villa in its ranks. Naturally all three of us will have to cut back the playing staff, some big earners will have to go, some big earners will want to go. A lot will depend on just who can adapt to the new situation the best.
I´m not expecting it to be easy in any way, but if Alex Neil can shuffle his new pack, and shuffle it quickly, into some sort of order, we might just have a fighting chance.
First up, Redmond. Now is surely the time to sell. I can’t see him improving any further with us. He is one of very few players to have come out of the last 3 months with any credit. We are told there are enquiries, so getting a realistic price for him shouldn’t be a problem. And to be fair to him he hasn’t (as far as I’m aware) ever agitated for a move. Two years ago when we were relegated and he was a shining light in the England U21s most players would have been looking to take advantage of that. He apparently didn’t.
We will still be left with Jarvis and two Murphys to challenge for the wide positions.
Klose looks almost certain to go – I think he might have moved to a club further up the table even had we survived. There’s a dearth of commanding centre backs in England right now; ask Roy Hodgson.
Brady, if he’s consistent with last season will want to go. I’m not convinced there will be as many suitors as there were last year though (there was just one – us). But he might just feel
that he’d sooner have an enjoyable year winning games rather than go to, say, Burnley and have a third successive relegation fight.
Naismith – I agree that assuming he’s enjoying Norfolk and not fallen out with Neil again, he’ll stay and show his class in the Championship. I could see him being in the Championship team of the year.
The intriguing thing is what to do about our “in-between” players. Ruddy, Martin, Wes (all twice), Howson, Olsson, Jerome and Tettey all have experience of making a big contribution towards promotion from the Championship with us, as has Bassong in a sort of club-share agreement; O’Neill and Dorrans played some part too.
The trouble is they all have experience coming back the other way too, again twice in several cases.
Many of them are perceived as having been awful for much of this season and many fans seem to think they should go now.
The dilemma is do we keep them, given that we know they are good enough to provide a backbone for a promotion-winning squad? If we do, how do we plan to replace most of them in 12 months time, because in reality that is what we will need to do if promoted again. Stating a 2017 Premier season with most of them still in place would be recipe for a 3rd relegation.
Regarding recruitment I was disappointed we didn’t bring in Conor Washington from Peterborough. We have to find an up-and-coming striker who is already knocking them in but still capable of improvement.
Finally what happens to Andrieu, Mulumbu, RvW, and Ojo? Not sure what their contract status is but none have really performed for us. Do we just take a hit and let them go for peanuts and save the wages? The last 3 of those are likely to be on a lot of money even after relegation pay cuts.
I’m all for locking the lot of them (except the wonderful Jonny H.) in the Castle dungeons for a spell with bread and water – illegal maybe, but would make them hungry to impress next season.
Redderz has flashed occasionally like an errant Belisha beacon but has never put even half a decent season together. If another PL team wants to throw 8-10 million our way, then it is probably time for him to move on.
Brady was poor in the second half of the season and after consecutive relegations with different clubs, his value must have taken a hit.
The much maligned Cameron Jerome has proved there’s goals in them boots in the Champ., so he’s a keeper.
The rest of the squad is an increasingly ageing pick ‘n mix. Time to bag them up and put in the reduced bin.
No mention of Ricky? Maybe 2017 is the year of the Wolf after all? Has to be worth a punt giving him the first 5-6 games on the trot to prove (or not) if he can cut it in England. If not, maybe worth offering Oxford a decent wodge for Kemar Roofe – he could be our Andre Gray.
That last quote – sounds like a ‘Trumpism’. Please tell me it isn’t.
Good article and equally good comments. I’d like to get some high earners off the books and pluck a few of last season’s best Championship players from “selling clubs” in that league. There’s a great CB at Brentford whose name escapes me, for instance. That kind of thing. Spearo will do his stuff. And for the sake of the Good Lord get a real football man on that ridiculous Board before it is too late. Have a great Summer of writing folks – I doubt you’ll be short of material:-)
Thanks for the comments – thoughtful as always.
Cosmo (3) – The Wolf has had chances to impress each of three managers (including AN last summer) and failed to do so. Rather than keeping the wolf from the door, this one needs to be shown it.
As I say, I really don’t know who we should sign. Assombalonga could bring in some helpful revenue on the shirt-printing side, but beyond that I’ll leave it Alex.
PS If you ever find me quoting The Donald, shoot me.
@3 Good call on Kemar Roofe. I have family in Oxford and they speak very highly of him. He seems young, but not too young, and hungry.
Dave B (6) – Interesting thought.
While many of our fans are still looking at the Premier League for signings (a flurry of tweets today on whether we should sign Anichebe and/or Sessegnon), the lower leagues are surely more realistic.
I’ve also heard good things about Roofe. However, his impact has been in League 2 – it’s a big step up from that to a strong Championship side challenging for promotion.
@7 Stewart.
Here’s a somewhat interesting observation based on limited data. Of the last 5 years some of the best English PL strikers worked their way up from the lower leagues. They’re not all Rooneys or Defoes that have always been in and around the Prem.
From the PL Top Goalscorers Listhttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_top_Premier_League_goal_scorers_by_season
Year – Name – Position that year – History:
2015-2016 – Jamie Vardy – 2nd – Plucked from Fleetwood Town
2014-2015 – Charlie Austin – 4th (second highest Brit after Kane) – Worked his way up through Non League, Swindon and Burnley
2013 – 2014 – No one notable
2012 – 2013 – Rickie Lambert – 9th (second highest Brit after Bale) – Long long history of scoring in non-league / lower leagues.
2011 – 2012 – Grant Holt – 8th (second highest Brit after Rooney) – Say no more.
If we sell Redmond, who realistically has never performed consistently well anywhere, we could do worse than take a punt on a few players who have at least performed well in the English leagues for a couple of seasons (Roofe or otherwise).
Dave B (8) – Interesting stats, thanks.
I’m not disagreeing that it’s time for us to take a punt on some hungry young talent from lower leagues. We just have to bear in mind that:
(i) there’s a much longer list of strikers plucked from lower leagues who DIDN’T make the same impact in higher divisions
(ii) most of the individuals you cite worked their way up through the leagues, rather than jumping two divisions at a go.
It might work, but the odds against it are longer than some would have us think.