So, the season’s over. That’s what most fans are telling us, so I guess it must be true. Isn’t it?
Many are also offering their diagnosis of why City failed. Take your pick of these:
– Not signing defenders
– Not signing attackers
– Missing chances
– Poor defending
– Failures of selection
– Failure to change games
– Losing in November
– Losing to Rotherham and Burton
– Playing one up front
– Not sacking Alex Neil in November/last summer/after Wembley
– The arrival of Jez Moxey
– The departure of Jez Moxey
– Russell Martin/Timm Klose/Steven Whittaker
– Signing Pritchard; Ed Balls doing Strictly.
Not to mention playing the Murphys; not playing the Murphys; playing the wrong Murphy. And I haven’t even got to Kyle Lafferty.
Sunday’s Canary Call added another explanation to the list: apparently Jonny Howson is the problem. Because he’s an all-rounder (ie he can both attack and defend, both pass and tackle) his presence stops our midfield having balance.
I’ll draw a veil over that one; I assume it has all the support it deserves.
There’s no doubt merit in many of those diagnoses (though I draw the line at failing to score enough and Jonny Howson). If you’ll excuse me, though, I don’t want to dwell on them right now.
My medical knowledge is pretty rudimentary. But I seem to recall an idea that you don’t perform a post mortem until the patient is dead.
“When will Stewart give up?” I believe I hear. That question’s been asked before, I confess, in various tones of exasperation.
I’m not an easy quitter, but if you want a number I’ll offer one. Despite some of the comments on my pieces, I’m not an idiot who’ll keep hoping until it’s mathematically impossible. Even though this (and more) has been reeled in before, I’ll concede when we need to catch up an average of a point per game.
So where do we stand? For all my jibes at Canary Call, I now find myself in agreement with much of what Rob Butler is saying. After the derby, I think he looked at the same league table as I did: it says we’re six points behind with twelve games to play. A long way from the mortuary slab.
Sheffield Wednesday have lost their last two games. If that becomes three on Saturday, we’ll have moved within a game of them with eleven to play.
Some of our fans are far too gloomy about the maths. Where they have a stronger argument, of course, is City’s erratic form. As an advocate of evidence-based argument, I can’t deny the kind of view put forward on this site by Gary Field:
“There’s plenty of points to play for, but that Achilles heel, the away form, plus the regular ability to switch off defensively, means to me the season is over”
If our season is to stay alive, we have to improve on some of what we’ve done so far. No-one can confidently say we will. But perhaps the nay-sayers shouldn’t be completely confident either.
Gary rightly highlights our defensive record. We’ve had few problems scoring this season, but a shocking rate of goals at the other end. Quietly, however, it’s been improving. In the last ten league games of 2016 we conceded 18; in the ten of 2017, we’ve conceded just 11.
As the Match of the Day pundits observed at the weekend about the Premier League, it’s easier to tighten up at the back than to increase your scoring.
Performance is key, of course. The last two home games have been disappointing in their points return, but not in performance. When they’re on their game – as they certainly were at Carrow Road – Newcastle are clearly the class act of this league. Ipswich aren’t, and we dominated them accordingly; on this occasion we just didn’t convert chances.
It would be wrong to understate the challenge, though. Our remaining fixtures throw up an interesting sequence in April, with successive games against six of the other teams in the current top nine. Before anyone (Dave B?) points it out, we got just one point from those six fixtures when we played them in our mensis horribilis of October-November.
Speaking of Dave B, I have to swallow hard and give him credit. I queried his claim that we’d get only seven points from the five games beginning with Forest. Having garnered five points from the first four of those games, we’re more likely to undershoot Dave’s pessimistic assessment than to better it.
But I’m still not giving up. If Ipswich fans are delighted with their point from the derby – as they should be – Owls fans are far from confident about their prospects against us on Saturday.
Meanwhile, I’ll go with the American writer Marilyn vos Savant:
“Being defeated is often a temporary condition.
Giving up is what makes it permanent”
But you’re not on the pitch Stewart. You giving up and our players having given up 18 months ago are very different things. Your pieces become increasingly cringe worthy the longer this goes on.
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I’ve been among those who have tried to put a more positive spin on things. I have certainly advocated a change of manger, but I don’t necessarily think a whole rebuild of the club, from board room to tea lady is needed. In fact I am supportive of our board, Delia in particular.
Nevertheless it is very difficult to envisage this season ending in a glorious win at Wembley. I strongly think we should begin preparations for next season. I want to see some of those decent under-23’s given a shot of the first team. Maybe from the bench at first but getting on the pitch in a competitive match. I want to know that the club are actively looking, now, for signings to bolster the team to have a tilt at automatic promotion next season. There is lots of positives to go with the negatives, I want is to identify them, build on them and hit the ground running next year.
While I appreciate the view that looking at the table shows we can readily overhaul someone and sneak into the playoffs. Looking at the performances on the pitch? It’s hard to be especially positive.
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Absolutely brilliant piece of writing. Stewart, you may be one of the minority that often gets shouted down, but Sir, I stand shoulder to shoulder with you.
I’ve always said in this division you need to be able to score goals. It’s not a mean defence that gets you promoted, it’s the 2-1’s, 3-2’s, 4-3’s.
Yes we may concede too many but we’ll ruffle a few feathers in the run-in, maybe not to NCFC’s benefit. Preston and Fulham I’m sure will be sitting there watching and hoping we take points away from some of those 6 teams in the top 9.
It’s still all to play for.
And cue the negative remarks, en masse.
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Jeff #1: You’re fully entitled to your opinion, of course.
Just a question. City have played 10 league games since the start of the year. By my reckoning only two of those (Rotherham & Burton) could justify your criticism. At least six (Derby, Wolves, Birmingham, Cardiff, Forest, Newcastle) have been good, committed performances. Tell me why my view is wrong.
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Thanks for the credit Stewart, but one question – When can we start calling my pessimism as realism?
Despite my pessimism and against all better judgement, I think we’ll get something out of Weds.
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That particular Canary Call highlighting Howson as the “problem” infuriated me. If it wasn’t so ridiculous it would be laughable. Of all the problems attributed with NCFC at the moment, Howson being both an attacking and defending midfielder is not one. He is our best player, easily. He is the most deserving of Player of the Season again and every game he doesn’t play, we miss him badly.
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Tommy #3: Thanks for the support! Other views are understandable, though.
Dave B #5: If I was really twisted, I could have pointed out that your prediction of seven points from the five games now can’t possibly be right…
I’ll think about your question on my way to and from Hillsborough.
Ian #6: I couldn’t agree more
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What’s happened here Stewart is that those who have wanted Alex Neil sacked simply can’t budge their opinion because they’ve been so vocal about it, almost to the degree of leading a witch hunt. It’s blatantly clear that they’d be seen to be embarrassed to do a U-turn and support Alex and the team. They’d see it as having egg on their face.
I know of 1 guy who’s had the bottle to say “I was wrong” and now supports what AN is trying to achieve. The rest just huff and puff (they’ve been doing that 4 months now) . . . far too long to now have it them to change tack. It’s disappointing really. As far as I can see it’s the club we should all be supporting.
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Great post Stewart. To be fair our defensive problems aren’t new and dare I say surfaced during that second season under Chris Hughton. Even during our successful play-off season our defending was pretty poor but masked by the fact that we could out-gun teams at the other end. As others have said previously, its our failure over 3 seasons to have addressed this is our current achilles heal.
As for this season, of course it isn’t over, six points behind with 36 to play for. But it will require the team to pick up more points than not away from home…
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Stewart – Am surprised you didn’t mention Fulham. Probably they are as likely to deny us a Play Off spot as Sheff Weds are. For someone who likes to base their opinions on evidence, I cannot see long term problems of poor away form or defensive mishaps instantly changing.
3 Tommy – “its not a mean defence that gets you promoted?” Isnt it? I thought goals conceded were as important as goal scored? Middlesborough had 9 clean sheets in a row last season = promotion.
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@7 Stewart. Oh I know. You may have to even call my predictions optimistic.
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Stewart – great piece and thanks for the quote. What I was trying to emphasise was that there’s still enough points available to make the playoffs, but, like many, I don’t think we’ll actually make it. As always, I’d be delighted to be proved wrong!!
#8 Tommy – not sure I completely agree with your assessment. There’s plenty of fans, me included, who thought change should have happened – simply because we believed at the time it was necessary to increase our chances of making the playoffs. That doesn’t mean that we stopped supporting the team, or, indeed, are engaged in some kind of witch hunt.
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Dave B #11: Brexit, Trump as President, your City predictions over-optimistic…
…surely I’m going to wake up and none of this has happened.
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quote “Just a question. City have played 10 league games since the start of the year. By my reckoning only two of those (Rotherham & Burton) could justify your criticism. At least six (Derby, Wolves, Birmingham, Cardiff, Forest, Newcastle) have been good, committed performances. Tell me why my view is wrong.”
Of those games only one was away at Cardif, considering we are at Sheffield on Saturday and the Bristol on the Tuesday. a total of Nil points looks to be about for a return given form away from home. that could add another 6 points to the gap. Mathmatically not done and dusted . but that is really straw clutching
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Pab. Take a look at the history of teams going up through the Play-Off’s (which is what were discussing). Take a look.
You can lose 12, 13, 14 games and still go up. This isn’t the Premier League, it’s the crazy world of the Championship (the 5th best league in the world(?), and little old Norwich must therefore be in the top 100 ranked teams on the planet . . . and for several seasons in the top league in the world. It’s really not so bad. Nobody has a divine right remember. There’s just simply to need for negativity. Live life with your glass half full, you’ll enjoy it.
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Stewart,
Further analysis of the last 10 games of 2016 and the first 10 games of 2017 shows that the 2016 games consisted of 4 against the current top 6 sides and 6 away games. This compares with just one top 6 side and just 4 away games for 2017. Furthermore, it is interesting that in the last 10 games for 2016 we played none of the current bottom 6, in 2017 we played 4 of them and only won one of them! When you factor in these comparisons has there really been the improvement you suggest?
We have underachieved, particularly in view of our resources at this level, away from home and against the top sides. In the last 10 away games we have won just once, drawing 2 and losing 7. In the 4 away games in 2017 we have just 4 points, playing 3 bottom 6 sides, failing to win any of them and giving away 2 goals per game. And in the last 5 games against top 6 sides (3 at home and 2 away) we have not won one of them. Hardly the record of a side in recovery!
And the reason for this? To me it is simple. The poor management of the club at all levels. It is no use looking back at the achievements over the last 5 or so years. With the recent in-house appointments for recruitment and at CEO (temporary for how long?) and the loss of key Board members the Club is a lot weaker now. Who currently challenges the manager on his performance? Who has the ability to seek out a new manager if one is needed?
Compare this with the philosophy, recruitment, analytics, due diligence, risk taking and dressing room culture at Southampton. This has enabled them, despite their net spend being consistently in the bottom 5, to achieve 3 successive top 8 finishes. The players sign for the club, not the manager (Redmond signed when there was no manager). Under the Executive Head of Football and with the first player liaison officer they have overcome the loss of excellent managers, head of recruitment and players. For a club which was a year behind us that is a remarkable achievement. We are currently a million miles behind that. It is the standard we need to aim for if we are to again compete at the top of this league and to the Premier. But a standard, I fear, well beyond the capabilities of this Board. Blind pessimism or realistic?
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Peter C #16: Very cogently argued!
Southampton is indeed a model of how a club of Norwich-type size can succeed. Part of my worry is that, as far as I can see, it’s the ONLY one. There are many sobering examples of the opposite.
But I can’t and won’t dispute much of what you say. A great comment.
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Stewart #17. Thanks. I wish I felt differently! But as I have always said, you have to endure the disappointments to really enjoy the good times!
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Great article Stewart, and brilliant comment from Peter C #16. We’re stuck with what we have for now; personally I cannot see too much mileage in AN for Rangers but stranger things have happened (remember some guy named Canos??).
Southampton are the club we need to emulate; thank goodness we didn’t follow Delia’s earlier wish to be like Charlton….
This season is surely over unless we win on Saturday. Any other result has to mean that our “deadwood” are thereafter rested and we get the younger guys for next season some real experience.
O T B C
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Pab #10: Sorry for the delay in responding to you.
Indeed, Fulham’s an interesting fly in the ointment. We’ll have a clearer sense of them after their next three games: Preston, Leeds and Newcastle.
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Peter C #16 – fair analysis. All I’d add are, firstly, Southampton did enter into administration and, secondly, have benefited significantly from external investment.
However, there is no doubting that it’s not just about the money. The way they’ve invested it, the off field set up, plus their recruitment strategy – both players in and out – seems second to none at this moment in time.
I’ve previously said, all most fans want is to see their Club being progressive, both on and off the field.
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I’ve not given up yet, but with each passing week its increasingly unlikely. I dislike the expression ‘must win game’ but Saturday is pretty much that.
I too would like to see some of the younger players feature more between now & the end of the season. The problem would be who & how. For me, I’d like to see more of Godfrey, Toffolo, Josh Murphy, Maddison & Morris but 2 of them are obviously out on loan while I’m not sure who the others would come in for.
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As regards Peter C’s most excellent comment (16), I think we even boil things down more succinctly. Make a list of the Top 10 teams in the Campionship table right now other than Norwich. Then go back through the fixtures list for the first half of the season and count up how many wins we had against those top 10 teams…. Shouldnt take you long because the answer is…. Zero. ZERO for 10. As much as I would love for NCFC, to make a playoff-run, this is not a team that should be thinking about the playoffs or trying to get back into the EPL. This is a club that needs to figure out how to win in this division first. Yes, we can dominate some of the lower teams at home and run up big scores at home, but this team simply has not proven it can play either offense or defense at a level required to be considered a top tier team in this division. Zero for 10 against the top half of the table. What else is there to say ?
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… and to add to the evidence for the prosecution, 8 of the 10 ties were losses, with only draws vs Fulham and Wednesday avoiding a complete washout vs the Top half of the table. So this is a squad that was given a rather quirky schedule where all its good opponents were lined up in a row. And when we got to that part of the calendar, seemingly our true colors showed. I hope am wrong – because the same quirk is repeating in March & April. So will see if whar happened in Nov/Dec was simply a “run of bad form” or whether it was proof of what we may have become – just another mid-Table Champo squad
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Paul #23/24: There’s truth in the point you make, but it’s not quite as clear as you suggest.
If we’re assessing City performances, surely the point is where our opponents were WHEN WE PLAYED THEM, rather than now. In that light the picture’s rather different. Forest were top 10 when we went there and won in September, for instance; Derby were 7th and on the charge when we dismantled them at Carrow Road on 2 Jan.
And we certainly gave Newcastle two good games.
Clearly, our record against teams above us has to improve – starting on Saturday. But equally clearly (it seems to me) we have the quality and capability to do it. Will we turn that capability into achievement? The next few weeks will tell.
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I’m not known for my optimism but I too am yet to give up hope until it becomes mathematically impossible.
Nonetheless its disappointing all the same, as even with a third of the season left to play there is a general sense of underachievement, that with the team we have we haven’t taken this league by storm.
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‘There’s truth in the point you make, but it’s not quite as clear as you suggest’…. How ironic Stewart!
Nottingham Forrest were a top ten team in September, brilliant, after how many games was that? Ridiculous stat.
‘We gave Newcastle two good games’, really? We were lucky to get the single point we did get!
‘We clearly have the capability and quality to do it’, so what does that suggest other than the manager cannot deliver what he talks up?
And as for your article, a string of woeful misses and poor decision making does not constitute a good performance against Ipswich.
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Stjohnstonpickle #27: Thanks for the comment.
The Forest game (one ‘r’, by the way) was after almost a quarter of the season.
We led Newcastle in both games, going into the closing minutes.
From October to December I agree with you – the manager didn’t seem capable of motivating the team to reaching its potential. The jury’s out this year.
Everyone will have his or her own opinion of the Ipswich performance, I guess. No doubting that we missed chances.
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Haha!! You mean the 8th game of the season Stewart…. You can’t jazz it up any more, I repeat, ridiculous stat!
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