Sic transit gloria mundi, as we say in the City Stand.
How fleeting is worldly glory.
As a pollster, I’m wary these days of making predictions. But I’ll offer one. Stuart Webber is in a honeymoon period at Norwich which won’t last – and I think he’s smart enough to know it. Among at least some sections of the City faithful, he’s going to lose the unquestioning adulation he currently enjoys.
We know the reason, though we may not have quite realized its implications. The release of seven senior players announced last week, plus five younger ones, is a step on the path we know SW is pursuing. But it’s only one step, and the easiest one.
Apart from some who wish John Ruddy had been retained, and a smaller number hankering to keep Ryan Bennett, the decision to let seven contracts run out was uncontroversial. It certainly helps address the issue of the wage bill.
However, it’s the beginning rather than the end of that process. By Championship standards, City’s wage bill is enormous and much of it goes to ageing players. If we’re to bring in a group of good younger players with the appetite and desire that’s been so clearly lacking this season, significantly more room has to be created in the wage bucket.
That means we’ll be selling – or at least trying to sell – some players who are loved by sections of our fans. Because the wage bill is such an issue, it may seem that we’re asking only modest amounts for them in terms of headline transfer fees. It’ll spark some unhappiness and questioning whether SW knows what he’s doing.
A disclaimer at this point. When I interviewed Stuart Webber we talked about his general aims for the playing squad; we didn’t go into detail of particular players currently at Norwich. Anything I’m going to say about individuals is therefore pure speculation on my part.
One more word of preface. My unscientific guess about transfer rumours is this: around four out of five are baseless. Whoever said there’s no smoke without fire clearly hadn’t observed a football transfer window.
So let’s try to bear in mind that much of what we see in the media during the next few weeks is likely to be flawed, misrepresented – or simply made up.
An early example may be the rumours last week about Jonny Howson. A number of sources reported City are looking to sell him; one, at least, that we’re ready to give him away.
Now, I’m not ‘in the know’. I don’t know which of three possible scenarios is true:
- This is completely fake news
- Someone was asked if any player might be sold if the offer was big enough, and answered (reasonably enough) ‘of course’
- We really are looking to get rid of Jonny, with money not much of an object
.
I’ll just say I reckon the third scenario is by far the least likely.
While there’ll no doubt be a major turnover of players at Norwich this summer, it would be absolutely wrong to describe it as a ‘fire sale’ – that is, a situation in which you’re looking to sell any asset you possibly can to raise money. We are not QPR of a couple of years ago.
Howson and Klose are probably our two most saleable assets. Whether or not they’re sold, though, will depend on the judgement of SW and his Head Coach about their contributions in the season past and potential contribution next season. On that basis, I think I know which one is more likely to be with us come August.
There may be larger question marks over a number of other established, and in some quarters affectionately-viewed, first teamers.
Russell Martin, Alex Tettey, Graham Dorrans, Cameron Jerome, Steven Naismith, Wes Hoolahan. All have made a contribution, in some cases a massive one; all still have something to offer; all have their own fan clubs. All have a case for being retained – but not all of them will be.
Their playing contribution will be considered, of course. As will, I’d guess, their potential to help the young players who’ll be given a bigger role next year. Alex Neil’s dad – a figure much like Alex, but with hair – once told me this was part of the reason for signing Steven Naismith. Russell Martin, you’d imagine, will also score high on that criterion.
On the other hand – Wes. No-one has enjoyed watching his magic more than I have; his legendary status is ensured and deserved. There are still times when he can turn a game.
And yet, his presence would hold back the careers of Pritchard and Maddison. Given the talent of those two, already blossoming in Pritchard’s case, I’m not sure I could justify keeping Wes.
Whatever he decides, there’s surely an argument to trust Webber at this point. His knowledge of players, both City’s and others’, is extensive (another senior person described it to me as ‘encyclopaedic’). He brings an unsentimental approach to Norwich’s squad – something we know is necessary at this juncture, even if the sentiment is ours.
So let’s take a deep breath and give him our confidence.
As long as he doesn’t try to get rid of Jonny, of course….
Great work Stewart and, you’re right, the wage bill will probably gobble up the majority, if not all, of next season’s parachute payment. Wages are too high.
The two words repeated in SW’s interviews were ‘player trading’. I suspect we could enter into double figures in terms of incoming and outgoing players. It’s going to be fun!
It’s interesting, we’ll find out soon I guess. For my penny worth given a choice of keeping either Howson or Klose I’d choose Howson all day long. Ideally I’d like to see both kept, even if that meant Russell Martin left. Although it would be terribly harsh on him.
In midfield it Loius Thompson had stayed fit and continued a season developing I might be relaxed about Alex Tettey being allowed to go but right now I can’t see we have anyone in our books who can play the defensive midfield role. I personally like Dorrans, I think he can play a deep lying playmaker role really well in the championship- although in the premier league I think teams would shut him down. So I wonder if he might go?
I think Wes is our only international class player. He can pick a pass no one else can get close to. I appreciate the effect it might have on Pritchard and Maddison but Pritchard has definitely found a way to play with Wes. I’m not at all convinced one Steven Naismith, in my view he’s one who we could let go.
Up front both Jerome and Oliveira are very good championship strikers. Could Carlton Morris provide back up? Maybe.
In my mind it’s the defensive aspect of things that needs all the work- again. Going forward we can score goals is stopping them that’s the biggest problem.
Whatever happens it’ll be fun to see! I’ll know if it’s all worked out or not by about October or November! OTBC
The free transfer speculation concerned Naismith not howson. I’m pretty sure Pritchard would be considered our most valuable and sought after by others player
Webber said once, that 15/16 may remain now after a month I would like to hear if that figure has dropped. I can see Tettey and Jarvis being next. Jarvis has added nothing since getting a contract only injuries, I do feel a little sorry for players who seem to be injured all the time. we have had them before. The joke doing the rounds was they negotiate their own treatment table into the contract.
I would be more than willing to see McGovern depart he just does cut it for me, what Jones is like who knows ?
I stir up a fire with this, is there room for two Murphy’s or is the money once mentioned too much to turn down ?
Excellent work Stewart. I totally agree that the decisions made to date have been the easy ones. The Ins and Outs of contracted players will be more questioned and debated and I think we have to give Webber and the new coach the benefit of the doubt and allow new players time to settle.
Harvey #3: The ‘free transfer’ speculation did also extend to Jonny Howson – honest.
Welcome to silly season.
Hmmmmm. One word used a lot by SW was CREATIVE use of the transfer market; he also mentioned players we definitely don’t want to sell. As Harvey states the free rumour was for Naismith; the Leeds lot rather hoped that they might get their boy back for £2m!
The big bucks would come out for our best younger players: Pritchard; J&J Murphy – north of £12m apiece to even get past SW’s in tray. Jonny maybe £7m, given his age; Klose £5m.
Of course with an encyclopaedic knowledge of players, here and overseas, SW could do a lot with even Klose’s fee. And by my reckoning the 12 who are already in the exit lounge release over £10m per annum off the salary budget. That funds 5-10 replacements in the young, hungry bracket.
So far, SW hasn’t put a foot wrong: he even made AI’s rant look as silly as it was….This is going to be a summer like no other I can remember in 60 years of following City.
We have two players who need to go but probably no one will fall over themselves to buy. I would guess they are on two year contracts at most. Of our other desperate (January) signings at least Naismith and Klose contribute sometimes. These two don’t: signed in Jan 2016, Jarvis and, Jan 2017, Wildschut.
As the clock winds down I would offer these two the option of trying out at full back/wing back, where we are a bit light in numbers. Though it is probably too late for Jarvis, Wildschut is young, speaks good English and won’t be on such a wage. If he can do a job there he will be better value that his countryman Dijks, who wants a big wage.
Yes Stewart that’s a pretty good angle to take on things.
#2 ncfcpaul: I largely agree with you – particularly about Dorrans and certainly at Championship level he really looks the part.
The last time I saw Carlton he was bullying the Chelsea defence in the second leg of the Youth Cup final. I haven’t seen him since, so I’ll have to go along with your “maybe”.
#3 Harvey: Stewart is right, there was ‘free’ speculation about our Jonny. Sun, Mirror or maybe both. I can’t remember – perhaps because I don’t want to:-)
#4 Sixties BB: Tettey and Jarvis are indeed contentious figures, even just because of the wages-injury-yellow card concerns.
Something tells me they may both prove problematic to move on this time round.
Of course, if Louis Thompson comes back fit and fighting, that would be a bonus.
I don’t see the Murphys going anywhere. At least, not just yet.
Steve Stone’s comments were interesting, that for “significant changes to the squad we will have to generate cash to do that”. So we virtually have to sell to buy ….
Tettey for example is entering the final year of his contract and is probably a higher earner, but I cannot see any other club buying him …. who would offer the expensive wages and injury prone Jarvis a contract?
The success of this whole project largely depends on who we can get out the door. Recent experience suggests offloading players we don’t want is very difficult or expensive to achieve.
Some players that we actually do want to keep may have to be sacrificed.
I never saw any speculation around a free transfer for howson. Happy to be proved wrong if you can find a link ?
We should give Jonny the armband and build our team around him. Give the youth its chance (Pritchard, Maddison and the Murphys, but also retain Wes (for his match winning ability) and Russell for his leadership qualities.
I can definitely see one of the Murphys’s going. What’s the point of them being used just one at a time and subbing off one for another. They surely can cope with playing a whole 90 minutes at their age.
Having said that *possibly Breaking News* I’ve seen and heard European scouts in one of the South Stand boxes at least on 2 occasions since Alex Neil was sacked discussing the pair and taking notes. They were not there for corporate hospitality for sure.
P.S. NOT fake news …
#11 Harvey: no link I’m afraid but I’m pretty positive it was in The Sun about a week ago.
Harvey #11: As I said in the article, most of the Howson speculation assumed a fee, but at least one source said we’d consider a free transfer. Martin #9 remembers it; perhaps others will too.
It struck me on a par with the Canary Caller who argued that Jonny unbalances our midfield because he tackles as well as passes. But it probably won’t be the most absurd thing we hear this summer…
Thanks for everyone’s comments. Keep ’em coming.
When it comes to mentoring youngsters, and still being a significant first team option, then it has to be Wes rather than Russell Martin. RM may be a nice bloke but his time is up at this level and he has to move on.
Certainly if homes can be found or satisfactory deals done over cancelling contracts, then Tetley and Jarvis must be priorities to let go. A managed and motivated Naismith is worth keeping if savings or sales can be made elsewhere to afford him.
Personally, I’d be selling the Murphy twins for as much as I could get, before it is more generally rumbled that they don’t have very good football brains. They both can score the occasional spectacular goal but their all round play is mediocre imo. They haven’t developed as one would want, won’t be Premier standard, but could bring in a few quid now.
Finding an already competent yet developing centre back is the real and most urgent challenge – on which serious money needs to be splashed – and if that means both selling the Murphys and letting Naismith go on a free or for a pittance, then it must be done.
And priority two must be goalkeeper. I’d give Declan a run, jettison McGovern, and look for the likes of an Angus Gunn on loan as an alternative.
And then a goal scorer. Certainly let’s see what Carlton can do at this level and if he develops enough for Premier standard.
CJ and NO will do a job at this level but neither looks at all likely to bother Premier defences – indeed we’ve seen that CJ didn’t.
Maybe Windschut will get a chance to develop.
here’s a tease for you : Head Coach Robbie Neilson from MK Dons – already track record of developing young players and working with a director of football at Hearts. But the Carra support would need to suppress its anti-Scots prejudice!
Some excellent comments floating around today:-)
Robin I somehow missed your observation about Remi Matthews yesterday – I’ve only seen him twice so don’t feel qualfied to offer an opinion. If he could be “cheap back-up” (horrible phrase indeed), then he might be fair enough as the bench custodian.
#16 Adrian: very interesting re the Bros Murphy. I think they’ve both progressed this season under difficult circumstances, particularly Josh since Alan Irvine took over.
Wildschut was, let’s face it, a panic buy courtesy of Alex Neil. Wildschut will sink or swim this close season. I hope he swims.
As for anti-Scots’ prejudice: I know your comment is t-i-c and only a few idiots trot that out seriously, but Gunny, Flecky, Malky, Jimmy Bone even and others I’ve forgotten? They were all top dollar back in the day as all supporters will well know.
I’ll bet you a Scottish fiver Robbie Neilson isn’t on our radar:-)
Well, there are some quite extraordinary comments here. Opinions vary and in some cases remarkably so.
No account seems to have been taken of Stuart Webber’s dismissal of the free transfer for Naismith in the last day or two. Add that to the rebuttal by both sides of the Michael O’Neil rumour and it is clear that we should be very cautious about believing anything until it is confirmed by the Club.
I am sure that there will be some surprising changes. Can the Club afford to turn down big offers for any player is a question easily answered. Of course not. If we get an offer of say £15m for Pritchard then he will go.
It will be a case of hanging on to our hats and seeing where we are in August.
However, I remain convinced that both Wes and Russ will be here then and will play a part next season as much for their leadership and continuity role as for their effect on the pitch.
I agree that the seven departures were (Ruddy apart) obvious decisions. But getting that done (and in time to allow Ruddy a decent farewell) is a good start. The Club can now concentrate on the more difficult business.
I am sure that keeping Russell martin makes good sense. No one is a better bridge between players management and fans. The irrational antipathy towards Russell has been unfortunate but he has not let his level of performance drop – no needless penalties like Bennett or failing to clear like Klose. He will continue to give his all for the club. As for Wes, that is a conundrum. On his day he can still unlock defences but should he do so at the expense of Pritchard and Madison and indeed a team with two Murphys?
Alex Tettey was a favourite of Alex neil but I recall the days when our best midfield included Howson Fer and Johnson with no place for Tetley. Perhaps he should be encouraged to go on a free to allow a club to match his current wages.
Others to leave such as Naismith Jarvis and maybe even Wildschut will depend on the kind of recruitment the new coach and Sporting Director can achieve.
Recent performances indicate that the team is not too far away from challenging next season. And the teams coming down especially Sunderland and Middlesborough will have a lot of work to do.
I hope we get the new coach in soon to enable him to sell his vision to prospective new recruits. Only a few may be needed but they will be vital.
Lots of great comments enjoyed the read.
Speculation on who might or might not go at this stage is fun but reading all the info that has been reported from SW I would presume that all the ones that have left, and no more decisions on people leaving will be made till the new HC is appointed.
Still reading the Blackpool Gazette Rosler is talking to owner Andy Pilley about what is needed for promotion next season.
Monk looks to be signing a long term deal with Leeds
Wagner had a bite at SW after he left Huddersfield
So that could close that door if there was ever a chase on him coming.
AN other seems that a few so called Germany are available from there lower leaguesif this is so lets hope it is someone like Wagner
Thanks for all the comments.
pab #10: Yes, there’s no doubt we’d like to offload more players, and in some cases it won’t be easy.
The big difference from a fire sale is the purpose. We don’t need to raise cash to save the club or meet debt payments; we need it to buy the number of new players we’d ideally like. It’s desirable that we sell or release some more, but we don’t have to do bad deals or accept inadequate offers.
It’ll be interesting. Since I wrote the piece, SW has given an interview in which he praised Wes (as well as Russ) as a model for our young players – so I may well be wrong on that one.
Harvey (11) – I saw it too. I was irritated I wasted 30 seconds of my life beginning to read it so I won’t spend time looking for a link. I’m afraid you’ll have to take our word for it as I suggest you don’t waste your time looking.
Frustratingly I don’t think I came across Alan Irvine’s ‘rant’ so I’m not sure what that was about.
Dave H #22: After Sunday’s game Alan Irvine had a go at the club for not clarifying the position of his staff (and presumably of AI himself) before the end of the season.
It came across as genuine concern for his people. But Stuart Webber made the (surely reasonable) reply that those decisions must involve the new Head Coach.
A tough situation all round, but hard to criticise SW.
Thanks Stewart (23). That’s what I assumed was the case but found it hard to believe as it seemed out of character and different to what he’s said in the past. I understand it’s difficult for those involved but as AI has said himself, the new HC will say who they want & until that person is in place no decisions can be made. The timeframe involved has been clearly laid out for some time. I think Steve Stone made the point recently, that not everyone will like decisions being made but they intend to be more open about communicating it – this is a good example.