Okay… time to ‘fess up’. Back in August some of the MFW team decided to go all Mystic Mick and had a bash at predicting how the top and bottom of the Championship table would look. It’s here. Typically it didn’t end well…
The ‘predictions’, in the loosest sense…
Top of the table:
Steve: Newcastle, Norwich, Derby, Sheffield Wednesday, Leeds, Brighton.
Russ: Sheff Wed, Newcastle, Norwich, Derby, Brighton, Bristol City.
Stewart: Newcastle, City, Brighton, Sheff Wed, Derby, Leeds (not Villa).
Ed: Heart says 2nd place for City – head says 6th. So let’s go for the mean – 4th.
Mick: Newcastle, Norwich, Brighton, Derby, Wigan, Forest
Robin: I think we’ll win it.
Gary: Newcastle, Derby, Sheffield Wednesday, City, Ipswich, Brighton.
.
Bottom three:
Steve: Rotherham, Preston, Burton Albion.
Russ: Rotherham, Barnsley and Blackburn.
Stewart: Burton, Huddersfield, Barnsley or Rotherham.
Ed: Rotherham, Barnsley, Burton Albion.
Mick: Rotherham, Wolves, Ipswich
Robin: Rotherham, Burton, Wigan
Gary: Preston, Barnsley, Rotherham.
.
Ed’s defence of his predictions (and the swerve he gave to offering a top six) was, it has to be said, more honest and solid than City’s was for most of the season:
” My stabs in the dark (you could never call them predictions) show just how wonderful and easy football is when it’s a game that is played in the mind.
“When we are either a Hucks, a Holty or a Hoolahan on the pitch and a scribe with strange mystic qualities off it.
“Sadly we are neither. But that is the reality of this wonderful game and the wonderful club we support, one that can take us to heaven or send us to the deepest depths of depressing hell-often, as we have discovered over the last two seasons in the same match.
“Who am I kidding, they can do it in the same half now…
“2016/17 has, for me, been one of the most frustrating I can remember as a Norwich fan.
“Every time I’ve thought the club is about to chase the rainbow, its fallen down into the mud and come up smelling of disappointment.
“Fool that I am, I just want to put a plaster on its knees, kiss it better and send it on its merry way.
“I think, I believe that next season will be one to remember for all the right reasons.
And that the rainbow in the sky will be a yellow and green one…”
[Ed will back on MFW on a more regular basis before the season begins, which is a big bonus]
The rest of the team (understandably) offered up little more than a litany of excuses until a longish email arrived in my Inbox on Tuesday from Mr Cook. I naturally expected another long list of excuses and mitigation but at the bottom of said email there was a table, and then it all became clear.
Steve, who in the same email confessed to having too much time on his hands and no friends, had taken the time to collate said predictions into a league table.
The ‘winner’ of the mini-league is probably already obvious to all but can be confirmed by Stewart’s response to it:
“History is written by the winners”.
And there it was – in all its glory. The winner of the 2016/17 MFW ‘columnists predict’ league: Mr Steve Cook.
Little did he (or I ) know at the time but his prize was a bacon roll on MFW, which was presented – along with all the other MFW end-of-season awards – at a pre-match ceremony last Sunday. I hope he enjoyed it.
For what it’s worth, the final table (which doesn’t include Ed and Robin for obvious reasons) was thus…
1st: Steve………………………………51 points
2nd: (Joint) Russ and Stewart ………56
4th: Moi…………………………………66
5th: Mick………………………………..85
(It’s a ‘Pointless’ type scoring system – lowest wins)
My own Achilles heel was an inherent fear that ‘that lot’ would somehow awake from their 15 year slumber and sneak into the play-offs, and Mick’s – as Steve highlighted in his summary – was the opposite: an inability to see past his “hate for Wolves and Ipswich”.
Joking aside, thanks to Steve for taking the time to formalise our collective embarrassment and if nothing else it does confirm the lottery of predicting a single result in the Championship and then multiplying it by 24 teams over 46 matches.
We’ll be doing the same again August and, if Steve and his spreadsheet are up for it, extending it beyond the MFW team to also include any of our commenters and friends who wish to also risk their pride. It might even be fun.
So, that’s almost a wrap for 2016/17, albeit Steve extended his celebrations to writing a City-related piece on the impact of the cut-throat nature of the pro game, which will be live tomorrow.
And then we’re into the James Nursey season (like the silly season but a bit sillier) where rumour, gossip and ‘in the knows’ will offer us talking points aplenty as the club’s playing roster undergoes its biggest transformation for many a season. Let’s however brace ourselves and prepare for the majority of said rumours to be nonsense.
Here at MFW we’ll do our best to separate the wheat from the chaff, and we’ll steer clear, as much as possible, of recycled, unsubstantiated gossip. I will however be asking the team to give us their considered view on how the rebuild is going, and hopefully Dave B, Jeff et al will continue the NCFC debate over the coming months.
But now’s a good time to thank you all – writers, commenters and readers – for making the MFW community such a vibrant one, and over the summer we hope to offer you a MFW that’s rather more aesthetically pleasing that the current version, which is held together with string and sticky tape.
Enjoy your summer. We’ll be here throughout.
Well at least none of you suggested that QPR, under their talented young manager Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink, would be the dark horses that made the play-offs…. Oops.
All 5 of you had Derby in the top 6, so I would imagine their fans must be as frustrated by failure to meet expectations as we are.
One final stat – Carrow Rd and Craven Cottage both saw 77 goals in the season, higher than any other EFL ground. As we scored 55 on ours but Fulham only 45 on theirs we surely can at least claim to have the best entertained season-ticket holders in the league.
PS
I don’t know about sticky tape, but at least MFW isn’t one of those annoying sites that jumps around all over the place just as you try to enter something. I’m not too worried about the aesthetics but a preview facility would be helpful – or alternatively an edit button (perhaps time-limited to say 5 minutes after posting so people can’t just go back and pretend they’d written something different a couple of hours later).
I demand to see details of this alledged scoring system. Since when in football has fewest points been the winner?
As much as I like Stew, I refuse to share 2nd spot with him when he predicted Huddersfield for the drop.
No one saw Reading, Fulham or H’field coming this season – goes to show how totally unpredicatble this division is and why it’s so damn entertaining compared with the PL.
Hi Gary thanks for all entertaining comments and banter this season and long may it last.
Fully agree with the above comment an edit button would be great to correct spelling and other minor errors.
Everyone has an opinion and hopefully these don’t upset others when submitted to the MFW all comments I hope are taken in with regards to the writers love and I presume expectations for city.
Some commenters are a bit forceful in how they try and explain their thoughts myself included but I have no hard feelings in being shot down at times.
Let hope for a new HC asap so the expectation can start on who will be sold and who will be added to the squad, this will be the start of the season for all commenters not the August kick off as that is when our feeling and hopes can be aired.
Thanks again for the banter.
Needless to say, I didn’t mention my prediction of Huddersfield getting relegated when I met Stuart Webber….
Russ #2: Full respect to you for picking Blackburn as relegation candidates. But Bristol City for the top six?
#2 Russell S – a scoring system where the fewest points wins might actually find some favour further South – and, anyone who thought that they’ll finish fifth needs to have a word with themselves!
Gaz – my mitigation is alcohol related. Can’t recall being drunk as I typed it, but must have been!
Russ – the stats and system are as fool-proof as any of Diane Abbott’s figures.
For promotion predictions, points awarded as per final league standings i.e. 1 pt for Newcastle, 2 pts for Brighton etc
For relegation predictions, points awarded as per the inverse standings so 1 pt for Rotherham, 2 pts for Wigan and so on.
Scientific ‘proof’, that I know my stuff!!!!
Gary – Great idea to open up next season’s predictions to the MFW community and thanks for the bacon roll.
p.s. I don’t remember stating that I have no friends so maybe your mystic powers are better than I gave you credit for?!?
Oh Gawd. Looks like I’ll have to make predictions for next season too then.
Anyone who wants a bacon roll should avoid any selection of mine – I am truly useless.
The last bet I saw a return from was Red Rum winning the National in the mid-Seventies.
#7 Steve: I’m sure you’ve got loads of friends:-)
#4 Stewart: If SW’s reading this, you might just have implicated yourself retrospectively…
(I would have had them dropping down or close to doing so myself tbh). Oh for that full-on hindsight!
Steve #7: Lies, damn lies and statistics….
#10 Stewart: I preferred his comment about golf, probably because unlike you I cannot play the game.
What a great writer Mark Twain was…
Martin #11 – My very first words on MFW were a Mark Twain quote:
“It’s better to keep your mouth shut and let people think you are a fool, than to open it and remove all doubt”
Some would say I should have followed his advice…
Steve (7) – I’ve spent all afternoon trying to devise an alternative scoring system so I come out on top but Bristol City let me down (look out for them next season Stew).
Mick’s silence is telling after his Wigan and Forest promotion picks..what exactly did he see in them 8 months ago?
Stewart (12): that was one of my father’s favourite sayings. I wonder why he repeatedly quoted it to me ….
Personally I prefer H L Mencken’s
“Democracy is a pathetic belief in the collective wisdom of individual ignorance”
which seems to apply to the likes of Archant’s “Pick Your team to Face whoever’s up next” approach to sports journalism, to American Presidential Elections, and above all to predicting promotion and relegation.
Russ #13: In fairness, Bristol City wasn’t a bad shout. They seemed ambitious, and we did our predictions before they sold Kodija to Villa.
Like Norwich, my Huddersfield prediction lacks a solid defence.