With the new season approaching at a rate of knots, it’s time to sort the Championship contenders from the also-rans.
How will the new-look Norwich fare against the relegated teams? How will our three-starred neighbours cope with the unknown vista of a Championship season? What about Norwich Reserves, or Wolves as they used to be known? Or Alex and Frankie’s Fill Up the Banky adventures in Preston?
It’s time for Part One of my season preview:
Aston Villa
On paper, Villa should blitz this division. Carrying easily the most recognisable squad in the Championship, they’ve added to names like Henri Lansbury, Mile Jedinak, Neil Taylor, James Chester, Conor Hourihane, Jonathan Kodjia, Gabby Agbonlahor and Jack Grealish with the summer signings of John Terry, Glenn Whelan, Ahmed Elmohamedy and Chris Samba.
Add in a high-profile manager with a track record of success in Steve Bruce and a chairman who doesn’t mind putting his hand in his pocket and it’s plain sailing surely?
Not quite. Whilst Villa certainly have the ammunition for a promotion campaign their recruitment policy is scarily reminiscent of Norwich’s prior to the arrival of Stuart Webber. The age profile of new arrivals provides nothing for the future and the wage structure, even for a club the size of Villa, must be pushing the Financial Fair Play rules already.
Add in serial malcontents like Ross McCormack and Alan Hutton still bouncing around the building and a first-team squad the size of the population of Liechtenstein not all getting a game and you have a recipe for a lot of things to go sour.
If Villa start well, then I’d back Bruce to be able to keep the momentum going and have a real shot at promotion. But equally you have to question whether this squad will turn tail at the first sign of adversity.
Is Terry going to have the influence he did at Chelsea, or find himself struggling to cope with the fact that every striker in the Championship will want to say that they got the better of the former England captain? Will the older Premiership players have it in them to cope with a 46 game season? It could all go very right or very wrong for Villa this season. One thing’s for sure; it won’t be boring.
Verdict: Promotion Contenders.
Barnsley
Manager Paul Heckingbottom continues to impress with the way he has quietly gone about the business of making Barnsley a progressive Championship club.
After a great start to last season he found himself losing the likes of Winnall, Bree, and Hourihane in January, but refused to let the wheels fall off and guided his troops to a respectable, and hugely creditable in the circumstances, 14th place finish.
Having lost captain Marc Roberts to Birmingham, and Marley Watkins on a free, Heckingbottom has been recruiting low profile players from the lower leagues with the best known being former City youth captain Cam McGeehan.
Some will question if they have the knowledge of the division to thrive or even survive, but I wouldn’t bet against Heckingbottom and coach Jamie Clapham once again managing to create a team greater than the apparent sum of its parts and picking up enough points along the way to keep ticking over for another season.
It will be more difficult this time around though.
Verdict: Relegation Candidates.
Birmingham City
The presence of Harry Redknapp up against Steve Bruce and Aston Villa makes the second city a fascinating battleground for the Championship season ahead.
Without the resources (or to be honest, the pull) of their rivals, Redknapp has been uncharacteristically quiet in the transfer market at time of writing. Brighton’s promotion winning goalkeeper, and scorer of more Carrow Road goals than Ricky van Wolfswinkel, David Stockdale, would appear to be an astute signing, as was Barnsley centre half and captain Marc Roberts.
Obviously, Harry being Harry, there are rumours about a number of has-been high-profile players coming to Birmingham, but as yet none have actually showed up. With a move for Mitchell Dijks scuppered when Birmingham baulked at his wage demands you get the sense that someone has a tighter rein on Redknapp’s finances than he’s experienced since the days when Rosie the Bulldog was squirrelling money away offshore.
I’m guessing that come August 31st we’ll still see him hanging out of a car window discussing his deal to bring Peter Crouch or Niko Krancjar in being “triffic”, but how he copes if he does have constraints will be key. It’s not difficult to foresee a scenario where Birmingham start slowly and Redknapp walks away.
The squad, as is, only narrowly avoided relegation last year and needs a lot of surgery to improve to the point where they can be regarded as challengers. Redknapp is used to working with big name players and motivating them to success. He’s not a master tactician and he can’t make a silk purse out of the sow’s ear that is the Birmingham squad overnight.
They need a long term overhaul that appears a mismatch with what most people would regard as a probable short-term appointment. Harry Redknapp has proven people wrong before but, good initial signings aside, I can see this being a longer, tougher, slog than he’s prepared for.
Verdict: Lower Mid-Table.
Bolton Wanderers
Phil Parkinson did a thoroughly professional job of bouncing Bolton back up to their natural home in the Championship last season and there’s a cautious air of optimism around the Reebok this season.
Whilst they’ve kept their powder relatively dry in the transfer market, Newcastle’s Alan Armstrong on a season-long loan is an astute pick-up, and they have players like David Wheater, Adam Le Fondre, Darren Pratley and Marc Beevers who have good track-records in this league.
They don’t have a huge squad or great depth of quality within it, so may struggle if they don’t add a few bodies before September. I would back Parkinson and assistant Steve Parkin to maintain upward momentum with an organised team that can pick up sufficient points along the way to avoid the pack at the bottom.
Verdict: Lower Mid-Table.
Brentford
Dean Smith’s guidance of Brentford to 10th place in the Championship last year, despite the loss of striker Scott Hogan in January, was an incredible feat that passed by largely unnoticed by the media.
They will be hoping that this final season at Griffin Park could be marked by even more success. The early signs are encouraging. To date, Brentford have been able to hold on to their most impressive performers in midfielders Jota, Yennaris, Judge and Canos and defender and captain Dean and added the pacy Ollie Watkins up front.
Brentford will hope their players, and more importantly, their manager, remain under the radar for long enough that their plans for the season can come to fruition.
Again, squad depth could be an issue but Brentford have an admirable work ethic and togetherness. Whilst mid-table seems likely, if they can steer clear of injuries or defections don’t rule out a surprise play-off push for a team that is upwardly-mobile.
Verdict: Upper Mid-Table.
Bristol City
Lee Johnson managed to cling to Championship status and his own job by the skin of his teeth last year, and it looks like it will be another battle to achieve both this season.
With no major signings as yet, pre-season has been dominated by their battle to hold onto key men like Aden Flint and Joe Bryan and they have yet to replace the goal-scoring prowess of on-loan striker Tammy Abraham (which is arguably what kept them up last year).
There’s plenty of Norwich interest with their captain being Aaron Wilbraham and vice-captain Korey Smith. Gary O’Neil is also there, albeit he has had an injury record that would make Matt Jarvis wince. Whilst the board’s faith in Johnson is admirable, if they don’t back him in the transfer market this looks like an accident waiting to happen.
Verdict: Relegation Candidates.
Burton Albion
Nigel Clough’s team of journeymen massively overachieved last year just by steering clear of relegation.
With the smallest wage budget in the division by a country mile and a ground capacity of less than 7000, they’re punching well above their weight and this season should be another massive battle for survival.
However, last season’s success was not a fluke and Clough has assembled a team that is prepared to work hard and battle for the cause. Highly organised and playing to their strengths, they’ll be nobody’s pushovers, and there is no “trick” to beating Burton.
They’ll fight you for every ball and every point. Losing Michael Kightly, their most naturally talented attacking player, and with loan forward Cauley Woodrow returning to Fulham, they’ll need to work the loan and transfer markets again, but Burton are adept at finding players that help them keep proving the doubters wrong.
Another mammoth challenge awaits to retain their place in the division though.
Verdict: Relegation Candidates.
Cardiff City
As much as it pains me to say it, Cardiff improved greatly after Neil Warnock took over mid-season.
This is still a club undergoing a squad transformation however Warnock is hacking out the dead wood that had undermined previous managers and brings in his own men. Calum Paterson from Hearts and Danny Ward from Rotherham are players with plenty of potential, and Lee Tomlin, despite seemingly having been wobbling around for ages is still only 28.
Even with the new signings and Warnock’s prodigious record of finding ways out of this league, it’s too soon in the rebuild to expect a promotion push but this time next year it might be a different story.
Verdict: Upper Mid-Table.
Part Two (of three) will be here tomorrow…
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