On Tuesday Andy looked to the prospective fortunes of Aston Villa to Cardiff. Today in the second part of his three-part preview of the Championship it’s Derby to Forest…
Derby County
Although they’ve lost Tom Ince to Huddersfield, Derby still have all the ingredients in place to mount a serious promotion push this year.
Although this was equally expected last season, Gary Rowett appears to have provided some stability to the revolving managerial door of recent years and it would be a surprise if they failed to live up to expectations in the same way as last year’s 9th place finish.
Andre Wisdom, Curtis Davies and Tom Huddlestone provide experience, although in the case of the latter two it’s questionable whether they have another year of Championship running left in the tank.
Just as importantly, they have Chris Martin back with a new manager and a clean slate, and with supporting players like Keogh, Johnson and Russell they’ll be strong once more.
Verdict: Promotion Contenders.
Fulham
Slavisa Jokanovic’s men impressed last season as they played attractive, attacking football and were joint-top goal scorers in the division.
Much of pre-season focus has been centred on successfully getting star players, Tom Cairney and Ryan Sessegnon, to sign new long-term contracts, although defenders Ibrahima Cisse and Marcelo will bolster the squad. Whether Chelsea loanee Lucas Piazon can successfully replace Chris Martin will be a key factor in Fulham’s season.
As impressive as Fulham were at times last year, so much is predicated on Tom Cairney that one injury could destabilise everything, and opposition clubs will game plan specifically to stop Cairney each week.
I think Fulham will find it harder this year, although they have a tactically adept manager and a reasonable squad so will still be there or thereabouts.
Verdict: Play-Off Challengers.
Hull City
Relegated Hull have been haemorrhaging experienced players like Curtis Davies, Tom Huddlestone and Andy Robertson so far this summer.
Kevin Stewart has come in from Liverpool for £4m in the hope that academy promise translates to Championship pedigree but otherwise new coach Leonid Slutsky is working largely with the squad that came down last season and trying to implement his own ideas in a league he’s not familiar with.
Whilst there are still quality players there, like skipper Michael Dawson and striker Abel Hernandez, there are few stars and the squad overall is not as large as you’d expect from a previous Premier League side.
While there is obviously something festering at the core of a club with unpredictable, capricious owners, Slutsky is a wild-card that makes Hull equally left-field.
If he can unite them into a tight-knit unit and find a system to suit the remaining players he may be able to mount an unexpected play-off challenge. The odds are not on his side however, as this troubled club appears to be on the down cycle once more.
Verdict: Lower Mid-Table.
Ipswich Town
Our friends to the south may be about to end their eternal stay in the Championship. Just not in the way they wish.
Last season, Binland was as divided and fractious as I can recall seeing. Oh how we laughed. And this season little is set to change simply because little has changed.
The lack of funding from Marcus Evans is evident once more with Joe Garner and Emyr Huws the only signings of note that cost anything, Cellina and Iorfa arriving on loan, and Tom Adeyemi, saviour of the known universe, arriving on a free.
Whilst they’ll probably all add to the existing squad, it’s not the sea change required to turn around a team that has been in a downward spiral for years.
Mick McCarthy’s refusal to change is either foolhardy or the only thing saving them from relegation with a squad that struggles for any kind of consistency and quality.
Either way, the Ipswich faithful clearly had enough a long time ago and the potential for things to turn even uglier is all too apparent.
Verdict: Relegation Candidates.
Leeds United
Unlucky to miss out on the play-offs last season, the loss of Garry Monk is huge. For all the off-field issues he was a point of solidity and guided the team into a much more positive position than the ownership deserved.
Although this has now stabilised, new manager Thomas Christiansen is a largely unknown quantity. He has some genuine stand-out players in Pontus Jansson, Chris Wood and Liam Bridcutt to work with and loan-signing from Everton Matthew Pennington should be an adequate replacement for Kyle Bartley.
Whether Christiansen can replicate the success of Monk is another matter however, and at this stage I’m inclined to think that this year will be more of a struggle as a manager without a great pedigree will cope with a goldfish-bowl such as Leeds.
Verdict: Lower Mid-Table.
Middlesbrough
Boro are perennially too good for the Championship but not good enough for the Premier League so it’s impossible not to at least consider them amongst the big boys in this league.
Last year they were compact in defence but struggled desperately to score with Aitur Karanka’s tactics dispiriting the Middlesbrough faithful before he was replaced late on by Steve Agnew, a willing assistant but too inexperienced to turn the tide in the hardest league in the world.
The comparisons to Chris Hughton’s final season were palpable. Rather than appoint Agnew, as Norwich did with Adams, Boro wisely jettisoned Agnew and brought in Garry Monk, who has moved quickly to address the goalscoring problems of last season with the addition of rapid Danish forward Martin Braithwaite (who sounds more like a guy who grew up on the streets of Teeside than an exotic international import), and Nottingham Forest’s talented but febrile Britt Assombalonga.
Jonny Howson has been added to the midfield talents of Adam Clayton, Grant Leadbitter and Stewart Downing, and at the time of writing England squad member Ben Gibson was still in situ at the heart of a strong defence.
While all the pieces seem to be in place, the reality of new manager, new style, new league and a squad in flux means that Boro’s return to the Championship is unlikely to be plain sailing. They may however be the best of the relegated sides and the most likely to push for an early return.
Verdict: Promotion Contenders.
Millwall
Another team on a very low budget who will be hoping to just survive.
Like Burton last season, Millwall will rely on hard work and organisation to try and match up with the Championship’s heavyweights. James Meredith, the Bradford left-back linked with Norwich last season, was an intelligent signing on a free and the spine of goalkeeper Jordan Archer, defender/captain Tony Craig, midfielder Ben Thompson and strikers Steve Morison and Lee Gregory is strong and unlikely to roll over for anyone.
Neil Harris’ reputation is growing as a manager and as one of football’s good guys it’s impossible not to wish him well. With the financial restraints he has though he has a mountain to climb.
Verdict: Relegation Candidates.
Nottingham Forest
Mark Warburton has a task on his hands in his first full season if he is to prevent a repeat of Forest’s relegation struggle last term.
Having lost captain Henri Lansbury in January to Villa, Forest’s other talismanic player, Assombalonga, has now departed to Middlesbrough and the squad is looking a little bereft of class.
Daryl Murphy has arrived for a couple of million from Newcastle, which seems expensive for a forward who has had one good season in a career full of mundanity and at 34 he’s more of a temporary sticking plaster than a permanent solution.
Much will depend upon what else Warburton can achieve with the Assombalonga transfer funds. Defensively there appear to be some good players on paper such as Lichaj, Mills, Macienne, Fox, Traore and Hobbs, but as Norwich discovered at Carrow Road, they often play as individuals rather than a team which leaves them vulnerable.
Coaching will be key to eradicating simple collective errors but it’s often more easily said than done. I see difficult times ahead for Forest fans.
Verdict: Relegation Candidates.
The third and final part of Andy’s preview will be live tomorrow…
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