A word of advice for any would-be MFW writer.
In a nutshell: go for it! It’s fun, and in Gary Gowers we have an editor who’s unfailingly sympathetic, flexible and supportive.
Well, almost unfailingly. You need to know that every year there’s one day of complete embarrassment and ritual humiliation for the writers on this site.
You see, every summer Gary gets us to predict the outcome of the season ahead. He doesn’t ask us to predict the top six of the Premier League, which would nicely enhance our reputations and make us seem sages. No – Gary makes us predict the top six of the Championship.
Every May, therefore, there’s a reckoning. And we look like idiots. We’ve made our best considered forecasts, based on careful assessment of each club’s resources, squads, experience and financial clout – and we’re hopelessly wrong.
The only consolation is that the bookies are no better.
Why is the Championship so unpredictable? And trying to disentangle that, what are the keys to success?
I hear a muttered chorus in answer to that last question: “money”. Well, of course it helps, all other things being equal. But they’re not – as we, better than anyone, should know.
Our Championship season with most money and resource was last year, when we never challenged. In contrast, the Championship season 2010-11 under Paul Lambert was on a shoe-string, and we cut through the league like a knife through butter.
If it’s all about money, why don’t Villa win the Championship?
Those examples certainly highlight one of the keys to success: having the right manager for the club, its culture and situation.
A manager with a clear philosophy, and who gets time to assemble a squad of players who respond to that philosophy, can achieve far more than the value of the squad would suggest. Brian Clough’s teams exemplified that, as do for instance Sean Dyche’s Burnley, David Wagner’s Huddersfield and – much as it pains me to say it – Chris Wilder’s Sheffield United.
In addition to having a clear philosophy, those managers have shown an ability to learn and adapt as they tackle unfamiliar leagues and challenges, and a personality that inspires admiration and affection in their players.
Those qualities have carried them through when they’ve made mistakes, as all of them have.
Where does that leave us, and in particular how we should assess Daniel Farke?
Everything was new to our Head Coach when he came to Norwich and the Championship in the summer. As he’s said, he had more comfortable options but wanted to come here. Like David Wagner, he relished the challenge of learning how to apply his talents to England.
We need him to be a learner, and a fast one. In terms of what we’ve seen on the pitch, at this point it’s fair for our judgement to be reserved. He responded impressively to the challenges – both physical and tactical – of the first few games and the need to shore up our defence. On the other hand, he hasn’t yet cracked the lack of tempo and penetration in our attacking play at home.
Behind that, does he have the qualities for the current task at Norwich? He and Stuart Webber inherited, frankly, a mess: a squad of highly-paid and under-performing players, an immediate need to cut the budget in response to falling parachute payments, and the prospect of further cuts unless we achieved the long shot of promotion this year.
So it’s a re-build. One of the things going for us is a group of, by common consent, talented youngsters. The keys to success at today’s Norwich City aren’t an ability to spend large sums and deal with big-name players, but the will and flair to develop young talent, to establish a football philosophy running through the club, to recruit players right for that philosophy, and to inspire confidence and commitment in those players.
These are reputed strengths of Farke, and already we can see some clear vision and purpose. He’s assessed the developing players and figured out plans for them: who’s ready for the first team now (Lewis), who’s best being kept close at hand (Cantwell), who will most benefit from a full season games elsewhere (Godfrey). It’s a plan from which he won’t be deflected by short-term clamour (“we need to recall Godfrey to fill in the odd games that Tettey can’t play”).
In terms of personality, no-one who’s met Farke can fail to be struck by his likeability. More important than that, of course, is his impact on players. Perhaps the most striking comment was made by Cameron Jerome on his departure to Derby. Jerome would have reason to feel disgruntled and under-appreciated by Farke, having played second fiddle to the moody Oliveira. His comment, though, was rather different:
“Norwich is a fantastic club and Daniel Farke is a fantastic manager”
If Jerome feels that way, it’s pretty evident that others do too, especially the younger players. As Connor Southwell wrote elegantly here a few days ago, turning our young talent into effective first-teamers is now an essential priority for the club.
Together with smart recruitment and a system that players buy in to, it’s our path to another 2010-11 – a season when we, like many other clubs before and since, upset the odds and achieved more with an unheralded squad than the fancier and more expensive names around us.
It happens. It’s called the Championship, and it’s gloriously – if sometimes embarrassingly – hard to predict.
Ha! I’ve just looked at my predictions for the first time since I made them and a couple are so bad it’s cringeworthy. No bacon roll for me this season.
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You won’t be the only one!
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Well I hope neither of you put your money where your mouth is – Bristol City may not be on a very good run at the moment but my quid on their relegation isn’t looking too hopeful. Luckily another quid on the Shrews for the top 3 in league one is looking more promising.
But as a matter of interest what happened to the thread around early August where we readers were also invited to make our predictions? There were quite a lot of replies I think. I only ask because I know I was one of the few to have Cardiff in the top 6. Trouble is I think I also had Middlesbrough to be leading the way.
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Funny old world Keith.
I had Boro to walk away with it too and Bristol City nailed on for relegation – we were asked for a bottom three as well.
Laugh all you like at that but my other predictions are ticking along okay.
I said NCFC would finish in sixth. The original “Oh Gord Blimey” I guess.
Still the faintest of chances.
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Admiring Chris Wilder? You can tell the Sheff Utd fans certainly do. Like I said a few days ago, he is everything that I disliked about football growing up. A small man, with a big attitude problem inspiring those around him to bully their way around – the post-match Sheff Utd MFW piece was a prime example, bringing out their best trolls left right and centre. What I find incomprehensible is the way some are touting him as the future of English football. If that’s the case I’ll give up now.
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I dislike Chris Wilder as much as you do. But if we’re trying to be objective and assess effectiveness, our dislike shouldn’t blind us to what he’s achieved.
Please God, though, not the future of English football.
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An excellent read Stewart.
Like all City and in general a football supporters I would have gladly accepted a top-six finish and then prayed for a Wembley appearance.
After the cull at the end of the season, most pundits wrote this season off for City and lots of good and bad comments on both the teams performances and the lack of money being invested either by the present owners or by a fresh face or two.
BREAKING NEWS
City have turned down a bid for Marley Watkins from Bristol and Barnsley want him back – so if these two clubs want him either City aren’t utilising his best qualities in the team or he has decided City was the wrong choice for him?
Incoming via EDP
Striker from Paderborn Germany 6ft 2in scored 9 in 15 and 10 assists – can he settle quickly into City squad?
Winger Onel Hernandez – this has been on the boil all window.
Midfielder M Lietner loan with possible purchase in the summer – has played for some big clubs. Has gone off the boil as well. Can he turn it round at City?
Possibly incoming
Striker from France? Maybe this will be looked at again in the summer?
If any or all of these arrive then City have a fighting chance to improve until the end of the season and possibly – still with hand on heart – the playoffs. But they will be better equipped for next season and Team Farke and Webber will have no excuses. He said four transfer windows and come the start of 2018/19 he will have had three, so we should see where their plans are evolving or where they are failing.
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Great comment
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So far the EDP has proved correct 2 out off 3 arrived as of 12-55pm today.
Are these available fof the Brentford game and I just hope we get acouple more in.
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“City have turned down a bid for Marley Watkins from Bristol and Barnsley want him back – so if these two clubs want him either City aren’t utilising his best qualities in the team or he has decided City was the wrong choice for him?”
Yes, that others also rate him suggests there’s more to come from him and I’m happy we’ve turned down a bid, at least for now. Either Farke thinks he can work with him and improve his game – as he clearly has with Vrancic and Zimmerman for example – or he and Webber are simply hoping enough suitors will appear to push the price up in the remaining week of the transfer window.
But as for using his best qualities, well isn’t it up to him to show what those qualities are? If you are not a target-man type forward then you’ve got to have good movement into space to give the likes of Maddison and Vrancic options, and be ready to pounce on half chances in the box. The impression I’m getting is that so far he hasn’t offered that.
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Hi Keith
Yes I agree with your point it is up to him to prove what he can do for the team on a regular basis.
Maybe he is finding it hard to adapt to the style Team Farke plays and asmere observers we will only beable to make an opinion on what we see for 90mins.
As before last season he was on fire for Barnsley and Bristol must think they can turn his form round, as you say Webber could be waiting for a much higher offer.
He has had a couple of good preformances my dread would be we sell him and he proves what a good player he can be elsewhere.
£2m just might do it for webber
Will city comply with FA rules on players if he leaves.
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So good you said it twice! I presume the site seemed to throw a wobbly the first time you posted.
The FA rules is an interesting point given the 2 arrivals today, and the supposedly imminent arrival of Leitner.
If the implication is that we have so many imports now that were they all picked in Farkes’ preferred match day squad we’d break the rules that doesn’t change whether Watkins stays or goes.
Bearing in mind McGovern and Wes don’t count as home-grown, I think if we had McGovern, Pinto, Klose, Zimmerman, Stieperman, Trybull, Tettey, Leitner, Hernandez, Vrancic, Srenby, Oliveira and Hoolahan all named in the squad we would just have 5 spaces left for home-grown players, which breaks the rules. If Leitner doesn’t arrive it will still be only 6 spaces.
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Hi Keith
When I noticed that it had come up twice I was hoping that Stewart or Gary might have deleted one.
So from you analysis city could be in FA trouble with the number of home grown players available I suppose Raggett doesn’t count either.
So if Farke put out his prefered starting 11 we might have to have a lot of the u23 on the bench.
Call back Mathews and send Mcgovern out to Plymouth????????
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Hi Keith
Well we got the third German in Messr Leitner so now we will see how the squad is managed with so many not under the home grown rule.
Just looked it up and it states any player no matter nationality that has been registered with either the FA or WFA (Wales) for 3 years at any club prior to their 21st birthday (aged has changed or is possibly going to change to 18)
Maddison, Gunn, Lewis, Murphy, Reed, Husband, Watkins, Jarvis(injured), Edwards, Cantwell, Abraham
Those above should get us by the FA rule
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I don’t want promotion this season, the reason being we will get relegated and everything put asunder. Let Farke build a team and a footballing philosophy that will be strong enough to endure. The club will require new investment for sure and that will come, but although our team sheet will now be appear as though we play in the Bundesliga, I am genuinely encouraged by the way things have gone since Webber/Farke have arrived. Everything has changed, we have an almost entirely different playing squad from last season and a new way of playing.
Promotion from the Championship is about momentum and leaders. We still need a talisman to evolve, but we have had periods where we gained momentum. For me somehow retaining Gunny junior in goal, Klosse, Zimmermann, Hanley & Maddison is vital for next season.
As for predictions I had a £5 on Everton to finish top four together with my usual £5 on that lot from Suffolk to be relegated, my kids always laugh at my predictions, mind you my old School master was right, “could have done well if only he applied himself”!
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