Despite a glut of all things football throughout this World Cup summer, the arm hairs are already rising in anticipation of Saturday, August 4th. The day of fresh slates, new heroes and untarnished dreams yet to be rudely awoken from.
The City squad appears to be set, although I imagine there may be a Maddison or Godfrey-style prodigy that Stuart Webber is thinking of taking a punt on. His record, after all, would encourage such adventure.
I made my views on this particular incarnation of our boys in yellow known on Twitter. I think that it’s the most complete City squad I remember having going into a season. That’s not to say it’s the best, that would be ridiculous. But the depth in quality we have as a squad is seriously impressive. Options in every position. And viable options at that.
There’s no position in the team that I look at and think “Is that too weak? Don’t we still need a new signing there?”. Compare to when Alex Neil’s new boys arrived in the Premier League with only four centre-backs: Bassong, Martin, Bennett and Turner, who was promptly shipped off to Sheffield on a season-long loan, leaving only three. An accident waiting to happen.
So plentiful are the options that we’re all currently playing the guessing game: Who’s starting at Birmingham?
Whilst I’m not going to go all “Mystic Meg” over one game I think we’ve seen enough from Farke Vintage 2018 this summer to make some educated guesses about how he is intending to set up for the first few weeks and which players have played themselves into likely contention.
While City have played a lot of their pre-season games in a 4-1-4-1 formation, I think (and hope) that the formation will be much more fluid than last season’s often stolid and stubborn rigidity of form during the games. However, before I explain this further it would be helpful to use this as a base to slot in the likely starters.
In goal, it’s obviously Tim Krul. As an aside, even if Remi Matthews goes out on loan, I wouldn’t be hugely surprised if Aston Oxborough ends up on the bench ahead of Michael McGovern for a reasonable proportion of games simply because of the homegrown rule. In a world where they’re unlikely to be used anyway it’s an easy way to play the quota and it’s why Chelsea are picking up the likes of Rob Green.
At centre-back, Timm Klose and Grant Hanley are clearly ahead of the pack, short of an injury to either.
I don’t think Jamal Lewis has enough minutes in the tank to come into consideration for the opening games. James Husband looks out of favour, Marco Stiepermann more likely to be utilised further forward. Which leaves Max Aarons. Incredible as it seems, the Under-23’s right back, only awarded a pro contract in May, is probably favourite to start at left-back at this stage having been heavily and repeatedly used in the role in pre-season. Fair play to him.
Last season’s default right-back Ivo Pinto has no game time under his belt and appears to have lost his place along with the captaincy. If he does mount an unlikely comeback it won’t be for a while. Felix Passlack seems the obvious option although I question whether Daniel Farke will trust both he and Aarons to try and adjust to the pace of Championship football at the same time.
It may be that the impressive and experienced Ben Marshall is given the nod, but equally, with the quality of his delivery, I expect him to be pushed further forward. Whilst there could be a left-field choice like Ben Godfrey, my guess is that Passlack is the man most likely.
In defensive midfield, Alex Tettey’s illness leaves the role up for grabs. As impressive as Louis Thompson’s rehabilitation has been I don’t think he’s a starter yet, although even a spot on the bench would be a massive fillip for him and just reward for having travelled so far on his own personal journey. It’s basically a toss-up between Godfrey and Tom Trybull. Pick your favourite. My money is on Tommy T but there are a number of reasons why Godfrey may be the better choice.
Ahead of the defensive midfielder, there are likely to be two “number eights” as they are known on the continent. Essentially creative midfielders who also exercise strong positional discipline. Mo Leitner is a shoo-in here. With Mario Vrancic injured, Emi Buendia playing catch-up fitness wise (and possibly better utilised wide), the choice to play centrally alongside Leitner looks to come down to Kenny McLean, Todd Cantwell or Stiepermann, who has done well in a seemingly more comfortable attacking guise. I’d be very surprised if McLean wasn’t the choice.
On the wings, Onel Hernandez and Ben Marshall look to be the men most likely, with both having been highly productive in pre-season. Buendia, as mentioned, isn’t up to speed, Jarvis is nowhere near and unless there’s an unlikely call for Stiepermann or even Passlack I think Hernandez and Marshall will be the starters in August/September.
Up front, if fit, you would expect Jordan Rhodes to be the selection, with Teemu Pukki a more than capable second option and Dennis Srbeny increasing his education in Championship football as an option from the bench.
This would leave our 4-1-4-1 formation looking thus:
That’s what I expect our base formation to look like. For those of you who remember how comfortable we looked playing 4-1-4-1 at Villa Park and The Den, however, I think there’s sufficient evidence to say that Farke has learned from those dark days however, and, unlike then, he has the players available to switch to a Plan B.
So, while when we have the ball we will be more expansive, in the 4-1-4-1 formation, when we don’t, one of the central attacking midfielders (in this case McLean), will drop back in to help Trybull while the wingers will narrow. This will effectively revert us to the 4-2-3-1 formation that gave us defensive solidity last season (whilst limiting our attacking threat).
If we can manage the transitions from having possession to defending quickly, it also plays into another positive that we have this season. Having surrendered possession, an effective and quick press against the opponents would likely see our opponents using their fullbacks as the “out-ball” with our wingers drawn inside.
However, whilst last year we “made-do and mended” on the wings with Josh Murphy often pushed up front, and the likes of Vrancic and James Maddison deployed wide in uncomfortable fashion we now have players like Marshall, Hernandez, Buendia, and Passlack who are both fast and aggressive and will look for situations like this as an opportunity to win the ball back and reverse the transition. At the very least they will harass and harray the full backs into mistakes.
There is a third option that has had an outing pre-season and one which again, can be utilised with the personnel from the base 4-1-4-1 formation. It’s a very attacking 4-1-3-2.
In this formation, Hernandez would join Rhodes up front to use his pace more centrally. McLean, Leitner and Marshall would then probe behind them. It’s likely this would be the call if we were chasing the game and you’d expect the likes of Pukki and Srbeny to be added to the mix at this stage also.
Obviously, during the course of the season we’ll play three at the back on occasion and the emergence of players recovering from injuries such as Buendia, Tettey and Vrancic will mean adaptations. But from reading the pre-season tea leaves I’d be surprised if we didn’t set our stall out for the first month or so combining the three formations above.
Now watch us sign Andy Carroll and revert to 4-4-f******-2…
A very sound analysis Andy.
My only question with your thinking is that Farke might try to find a way to employ both Pukki and Rhodes with the former behind the latter.
I wouldn’t discount a three at the back on occasions either. Timm, Hanley and Zimbo worked well at times last season.
I don’t think Lewis or Tettey are that far away. Fortnight maybe?
Anyway we’ve got a squad now that gives us plenty of options and that can only be a good thing. I suspect more rotation on a horses for courses basis this season rather than a pick-itself XI.
Thanks for educating me about number eights – I can honestly say I’d never heard the phrase in that context before.
I’m glad we can’t afford Andy Carroll tbh:-)
Thanks Martin.
I agree with Pukki and he has been used in attacking midfield a few times. It will be interesting to see how DF deploys him.
To me the problem selection areas are full backs and defensive midfield. I would be very concerned if Passlack was at right back as he does not seem ready. At left back without Lewis it is a toss up between Husband, Aarons and Stiepermann to fill in. I think Marshall at right back and Husband at left may have to be the call. In midfield we surely need Thompson or Godfrey along side Trybull or have we learnt nothing from last year?
I agree on Passlack, and I think, like Vrancic last year, he needs a period of adjustment.
My head is spinning after reading this as I have never seen so many of the players mentioned in a Norwich shirt and my powers of analysis trail way behind Andy’s.
I agree that the squad looks to have more depth and balance than at any time for a long time, but I have a nagging thought; we have replaced approximately £40m worth of sold players with about £5m of signed players.
I don’t want to pee on anyone’s chips but this worries me. I am impressed with the signings I have heard of and really hope that SW and his network have unearthed some gems. I’ll be at the entirely reasonably renamed Trillion Trophy St Andrews Stadium on Saturday but I don’t yet know whether I should look forward to the season with hope or anticipation.
My advice would be cautious optimism.
The value of the players sold means very little. Afterall, we purchased Maddison for £3.5M and sold him for £22M + add-ons, after one competitive season. As great as he was, everything went through him, which made our attacks predictable. Murphy was poor throughout the season. On his day, he could win matches on his own. Trouble is he turned up for about 5 games a season.
Marshall has far better delivery than anyone we’ve had since, I would argue, Steen Nedergaard. Webber has provided the players, now it’s up to Farke to deliver the results. I’m looking forward to the season ahead.
Totally agree. Madders and Murphy were all about conjuring chances themselves. If we can substitute dribbling for short, sharp passing we could turn a big corner very quickly.
I expect Farke has read enough of his Fußball der deutsche Weg to stay overly cautious, which is sad because we have a lot of flexibility and balance with the squad, yet I suspect our potential will never be fully realised. I expect 4-2-3-1, which can end up being a de facto 4-2-4-0 on occasion.
Whatever the system, Farke has to make it work more often than not, otherwise it will be his last season in English football. Be Bold Daniel!
Hi Andy a great read abd analysis on possible formations that city could and will use at times this season.
After Saturday’s game I just hope the squad is up for and preoared for teans that are set up like Charlton was, it was a typical Bowyer team and they played as he did with no compromising either in tackles or effort, stayed in shape and gave no quarter.
It took city till the last 20 mins to get to grips with their style possibly due to farke wanting to give all the players some game time, or hope the earlier changes would up set Charlton rhythm and style of play which it didn’t and he finally got a more robust holding set up to counter that style.
Charlton by all accounts got lucky in their goal wuth a double deflection and their keepers pulked off some really excellent saves so I wish them all the best for the coming season.
City have on paper a tough task on Saturday against Birmingham who haven’t had a great pre season either, but does that count, city won all their pre season games under Gunn only to lose the opening game 7-1 to Colchester so confidence should have been high.
I am a pessimists and looking for city to win 2-0 but my predictions can be called into question never any goid on super 6 kids or wife always win a mini league we do.
No matter what system or systems are used during the season it is diwn to how well we apt during the games to how the other team is playing, winning as they say breeds confidence and that help the squad players coming into a side it is hard for players coming into a team lacking confidence.
There are plenty of new managers in this championship this season some with little experience in either English football, championship football and their first try at management, there are a few teams looking to spend their way to promotion and that doesn’t always work look at A Villa but you have WW that spent and won the league, Cardiff loaned players in and got promotion so again I am looking forward to an exciting season and being a pessimist I aee city in the top 6 and Wembley.
OTBC
If we don’t start at Birmingham with two defensive midfielders we will lose. Monk is an astute tactician and they will be all over us if we start slowly and the game will be over by half time. I think it’s unlikely that Farke will play Aarons at left back and if we are playing Marshall on the right I hope he will go with a 3 at the back.
I’d like to see Krul, Hanley, Klose, Zimmerman, Marshall, Godfrey, Trybull, Hernandez, Maclean, Leitner, Pukki in a 3421 with Rhodes, Passlack and Buendia off the bench if we need them.
I suspect he will use Passlack and Husband in a standard 4 and if he only puts Trybull in front of them we will have another Millwall.
Left back is clearly a problem until Lewis is fit. Husband is clearly only second choice but I suspect is better than fans think, otherwise he would have only lasted as long as Watkins. But I think he will have to play simply because he’s the specialist in that position and I think a lot of Blues attacks come down the right through Maghoma.
I will be interested to see what happens in midfield. There are so many – too many? – options. But are any of them capable of taking a game by the scruff of the neck? The last promotion team had Howson at its heart and I don’t see that we’ve really replaced him. I hope Farke can settle on his best midfield a lot earlier this year than last.
Much as we all want to start with a win, it’s easy to forget that Saturday’s game is only 1 of 38, and in truth few teams are really settled at this point. I suspect we will all be saying “work-in-progress” come 5.00pm, whatever the result.
1 in 46 Keith, we ain’t in the Prem anymore!!
Ah, so we aren’t…. Oops!