October is definitely the worst month of the year. The clocks go back, the leaves fall from the trees and people begin wandering the streets dressed as axe-wielding clowns or blood-sucking vampires.
Fittingly then, it also happens to be the exact time every year that the life is sucked from City’s season.
Nearly one year ago, on October 28, City lost 2-1 at home to Derby to end an eight-match unbeaten run. Norwich were sixth going into the game – they wouldn’t be in a playoff position for the rest of the season.
Two years ago, Norwich were top of the Championship after 12 games and second after 13, before a 1-0 loss to Preston on October 22 started a five-game losing streak that resulted in City being eighth after 18 games; never again recovering a playoff spot. In 11 games, Norwich went from first to 12th, 18 points off the top.
On October 18, 2015, City were chugging along at a nice pace in the Premier League, with nine points from eight games, five points off the bottom three. Then that game happened, as City got absolutely thumped 6-2 by Newcastle. Alex Neil presumably died in horror at the final whistle to be replaced with a not-very-convincing lookalike (maybe that bloke off Gogglebox) as Norwich slumped to 16th by the end of the month, without winning a further point.
In October four years ago, City picked up three draws and a defeat back in the Championship before beating Bolton on Hallowe’en, sliding from first to sixth in the process. Despite beating the Trotters, the rot had already set in and Neil Adams was soon gone.
Note below, that Norwich’s position on October 1 was higher, in every example, than their position on November 1 and their final position.
In 20 games in October over the last four years (including this season’s two games so far), City have won four, drawn six and lost 10, amassing a cumulative 18 points – relegation form in any league. That’s an average of 0.9 points per game (ppg) over the last four and a bit Octobers, as opposed to 1.75 ppg pre-October 1.
It doesn’t quite feel as if Norwich are the subject of some spooky Hallowe’en curse though, not quite yet.
Four years ago, the club lost their new manager bounce, as it became abundantly clear that Adams wasn’t up to the job.
The year after that, Neil completely changed his philosophy after the Newcastle drubbing and City became shells of themselves, terrified to attack in numbers in case of being punished at the back.
The 2016/17 season is more of a mystery but Norwich were scintillatingly good at home right to the end, so it was their away form that tripped them up, not October.
Last year? City just had an excellent September, then reverted to type.
So what will this year bring? Norwich have already kicked off the autumn months with a draw and a defeat, slipping from fifth to ninth in the process. But, like the weather this October, the outlook is decidedly sunnier.
It’s worth pointing out that Daniel Farke’s side have not fallen apart this time around (although the month is still young!), earning a good point at Derby and being desperately unlucky to lose at home to Stoke.
October 2018’s two games have, in fact, been two of Norwich’s best performances of the Farke era, if not for goal-scoring potency but for the speed and precision with which the German’s team are now moving the ball.
You could argue Stoke deserved to win at Carrow Road for a truly outstanding defensive display, but on about 20 different occasions City were just one good pass away from carving the Potters open, with passes just millimetres off their mark. Against a centre-back pairing containing European Championship semi-finalist Ashley Williams and World Cup semi-finalist Bruno Martins-Indi, that isn’t something to be ashamed of.
There are much dodgier defences in the Championship that Moritz Leitner, Todd Cantwell and Marco Stiepermann would have unlocked last Saturday. And with Onel Hernandez now back to give Norwich more much-needed directness and our Fantastic Finn, the side is now stocked full with attacking talent. We even have a reinvigorated Alex Tettey and a solid back four (average age just 23.3) sitting behind them.
City have a settled, young and hungry squad for the first time since Paul Lambert walked the hallowed halls of Carrow Road – despite a promotion in the interim.
Of course, Forest away and Villa and Brentford at home is a tricky finish to any month, meaning October may strike City down again. If it does, let’s please call it a curse and move on. But if even October can’t stop us?
Maybe it really is our year.
An excellent article Jack and a worthwhile stat re the average age of our back 4 and if you believe everything you read in the ‘red tops’, then the ‘vultures are already circling’ to tempt away our emerging talent!! Luckily SW has succeeded in getting said talent to sign significantly longer contracts and we can but hope that some at least will stay here and hone their skills under Farke and his team of coaches. (Surely it’s about time we extended Farke’s contract!!!)
Had luck been on our side in the last 2 games, we could have been on 23 points. It’s also interesting that you comment on the present team being reminiscent of the time when Paul Lambert was at CR and it’s something I’ve commented on on another Forum.
3 quite difficult games before the end of the month and if we have increased our points total by 5 or more after the ghosts/witches/vampires have been and gone for another year, then I’m sure most NCFC fans will believe that a minimum of a ‘top 10’ finish is achievable – top 6 REALLY is the stuff of dreams!!!!
A very good read Jack.
I’ll highlight your focus on the average age of our “in situ” back four – if we ever had to replace Klose with Godfrey, the figure would fall well below 23.3. I’d guess 20.5 or something like that!
Slightly more encouraging than having Bassong and Martin lumbering around on $x million a season each!
Jack, this is a good article which puts our current position into perspective. We have all enjoyed the success that this period has brought us and rightly Farke has been praised for that success ( even by me) and has deserved it. However, it is from now till Christmas that will determine whether the Farke reign has turned the corner. If we are still in touch with the top six at that time then that will be the time to think of Farke’s contract Ed! We have shown that we have the players to put us in or close to a top six finish so let’s hope he can now deliver and prove his doubters ( yes, including me) wrong. I agree that we don’t have to win the next three games to continue the progress and 5 points would be acceptable as long as the performance levels remain high. I am actually reasonably hopeful but the nagging doubt remains.
@Cyprus – Fair comment re giving Farke until Xmas to decide whether or not he should be offered a new contract, as there are some very tough games left this month and a few of the games next month look easier ‘on paper’, but as we all know, football isn’t played ‘on paper’. I was at the Stoke game and against a weaker defence, I’m sure we would have won and it’s the team spirit and togetherness that gives rise to my optimism, though there will ALWAYS be a hint of caution as well, as one or two key players could suffer an injury.
Hi All
Great read and good comments.
Yes we have 3 hard games coming up and Forest being the only settled one out of tbe 3, Villa and Brentford both will have new managers abd lets hope it will take a few weeks for them to get their ideas over to their new teams.
Dean Smith and Terry will try and change the style of Villa to a more attacking one but at present it will have to tighten up their defence and Brentford are still looking but the moneyball club are sure to have a new manager in before the city game.
I just wonder if Terry might come out of retirement to help Villa and at Brentford the Cowley are one of the favourites so they might come in for Raggett in January.
Lets hope England can get a result to night and city come out of the box flying after this break a good draw or possibly a 1 – 0 to Norwich to restart with