I’ve an important message to help my fellow Norwich fans preserve their sanity.
Do as I say, not as I do.
Are you scouring the remaining fixtures, trying to assess how many points we’ll get from each game, then doing the same for our rivals and attempting to work out where it means everyone will finish? Or trawling history to see how many points are likely to be required for automatic promotion, then going back to our fixtures and repeating step 1?
Me too.
Stop it right now.
It’s hopeless for at least three reasons. First, we can’t possibly get it right. Last time we went up, I remember doing the same with just five games to go. It seemed simple enough, but my predictions were hopelessly inaccurate. A team like QPR, having lost six in a row, will beat a Leeds. A Preston will beat us. Games you’d be happy to draw suddenly turn into wins. That’s the Championship.
Second – and exacerbating the first – the permutations are way too complex with eleven games remaining. Other than perennial certainties like Derby collapsing, there are so many unknowns. Will a Forest, Birmingham, Hull or Villa make a charge for the top six, and what havoc will that wreak on the rest of us? Will West Brom and/or Middlesbrough get their act together and pressurize the current top three?
Our “easy” run-in includes games against Hull and Villa, of course, as well as the trip to Boro.
Third, the more closely you examine the stats, the more labyrinthine it all becomes. Surely history can give us a good steer about the points we require? Not really.
Over the past ten years, the number of points acquired by the second-finishing club has varied from 79 to 93. Hull got automatic promotion with 79 in 2012-13, while six clubs have finished with 85 points or more but failed to get into the top two.
Brighton’s 89 points in 2015-16, and Fulham’s 88 last year, weren’t enough for better than third place.
Are you still with me?
You may be thinking: ‘Stew’s making this all unnecessarily complicated’. As we’ve been told on social media, all City have to do is average two points per game from here in, and we’ll be home and dry.
That’s true to the extent that it would give us 91 points, a total with which no team’s failed to get automatic promotion.
Just two slight problems with it.
One: both Leeds and Sheffield United will be making similar calculations. A two-point-per-game average would give Leeds 89 points and the Blades 87. Only two teams (Brighton and Fulham as I described earlier) have ever got that number of points and failed to make the top two.
Yes, they’re a fraction behind us – but margins much too fine to count on.
Two: this will become an increasing test of character. Averaging two points per game sounds easy now, but we’re heading for squeaky bum time. Nerves will cost some – perhaps all – of the leading teams points during the run-in.
If I sound cautious about all this, it’s because I am. It doesn’t mean I’m pessimistic. Actually, quite the opposite.
The next two months will be a severe test of nerve for all of us. But oddly in the light of their different degrees of experience, I have more faith in Daniel Farke than Chris Wilder or Marcelo Bielsa to keep his troops calm and focused.
Jordan Rhodes says Farke is the best man-manager he’s ever worked with. And this season’s certainly been a masterclass in it.
Having assembled a group of players to fit his philosophy and style – defenders in summer 2017, attackers in summer 2018 – Daniel Farke’s management of them has been superb. We now have a group where those in the team are performing at their limit, while those outside the team are giving full-throated support to them.
Even more remarkable considering that those outside the team include our captain, our most experienced central defender and midfielder, the technically best player at the club and one of the all-time leading scorers of the division.
Clearly, character is a big factor in Farke and Webber’s selection of targets. Having assembled a bunch of good characters, though, it still takes exceptional day-to-day management to create the kind of spirit and unity which typifies Norwich City these days.
Unlike some of his fellow managers, Farke exercises sensible principles of people management. One of the best I was ever taught is “praise in public, criticise in private”; he clearly follows that. But he’s also not afraid to put his judgement ahead of conventional wisdom.
Convention says that when you introduce young players to the first team, you play them for a few games then give them a rest. Not Daniel. If Max Aarons or Ben Godfrey are performing, they’ll stay in the team just as Tim Krul or Marco Stiepermann would. The wisdom is there for all to see.
We need to strap ourselves in; it’ll be a bumpy ride. But do we have the ingredients to potentially pull off a sensational success? Yes, we do.
OTBC – but leave those stats for another day.
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One game at a time, win that move on to the next one, I gave up trying to do the math on a league position years ago. As long as we keep concentrating on ourselves with the very odd little glance in the wing mirrors, we can and will finish off a magnificent season.
Many things about Farke impress me, hard to pick one, I am not privy to any inside info or see the day to day workings, But it does seem to me and I find very refreshing is his way of accepting the limitations he has on who we can purchase. No toys out of the pram, no trying to force something and no sign of wanting to run to the next club with more money to waste on a flop. The league is littered with big money spends who have not worked out, gladly we only had RVW and still not convinced it was all his fault. I would gladly lay money on Farke getting the best of him
Quote: ” We are not the richest club so the financial pressure was on us in recent years and we had to be creative.”
And boy have they been too
Good thoughts. I know Stuart Webber has two separate lists of targets (at least!), depending on where we finish this year.
If we’re to get promoted, the accountants would probably rather do it through the playoffs. Knowing Stuart’s keenness to get cracking with his plans, I’m sure he’d prefer the automatic route.
OK, let’s keep it simple.
NCFC are now in a kind of play off situation but spread over 11 games with 2 teams qualifying out of an assumed 3 competing. (‘So much better than the actual play-offs where it’s just one out of four!).
Norwich need 21 points out of a remaining 33 available (64% of points available).
Leeds neeed 23 points from 33. (70%)
Sheffield United need 25 from 33. (76%)
Norwich could win 7 and lose 4 but must try to avoid pesky draws which are not much better than losses in a play-off situation based on 11 games with 3 teams in the mix.
One other critical point. Norwich potentially have A GAME IN HAND over one or possibly BOTH of their rivals, as Leeds and Sheffield United have to play each other, which means they are together competing for 3 points rather than the normal 6.
If this game is a draw, Norwich then have the chance to gain a 2 point advantage on both of them by winning our game. If there is a loser in the Leeds vs Sheffield game, Norwich will effectively have an extra game left to pull a further 3 points ahead of this losing team.
I’m assuming based on a decade of Championship’ seasons you will need 90 points for a top 2 position.
Let’s do it!
Not a bad way of thinking about it. As my analysis suggests, 90 points would ALMOST certainly be enough.
We could use Bristol City and Brentford finding their best form over the next few weeks.
Exactly, 90 points should do it.
So we should of course avoid predicting individual matches, but focus on the key trends. With the small caveat that we have to remain an in-form team!
Norwich now need 1.91 points per games remaining (Our season average thus far 1.97).
Leeds need 2.09 vs their season average so far of 1.91
Sheffield Utd need demanding 2.27 points per match vs average 1.86.
MP mentioned in his article yesterday that you were in the process of compiling an article on computer predictions and it’s certainly a worthwhile read. I’m sure you’ve looked back at the initial predictions where we would finish around 18th and Stoke would be in the promotion mix.
With 33 (36 for some clubs) still to play for, we could see significant changes in the top 6, but after our ‘tigerish’ victory against the Lions, I’m quietly confident that we’ll be celebrating promotion by the end of April. As there are 3 or 4 clubs separated by a handful of points, my hunch is that 90 will be sufficient to go up.
You mention the togetherness of the team and the quality on the bench unable to make the starting 11, but how do you change a winning 11??? I believe Ranieri in his time at Leicester used the same starting 11 in 11 consecutive games.
Thanks. I didn’t talk much about the computer models – despite their veneer of science, I don’t see how they can be any more accurate than our own speculations.
OK Stew, I’m on it. I’m removing the batteries from my calculator as I type.
No, I didn’t think you’d fall for that one. Suggesting we stop pondering the what ifs’ and maybes’ is akin to presenting a two year old with an advent calendar and suggesting he/she only opens one door each day.
Look I know it’s sage advice and we’d all be better off if we followed it, but quite frankly there’s about as much chance of that happening as there is of spotting Lord Lucan riding Shergar on Holkham beach or watching MOTD minus cliches. Not going to happen Stew but nice article anyway and we appreciate your concerns for our sanity.
If only I could disagree….
Nice comment – thanks!
A great read Stewart.
A couple of years ago I and many others had written off any chance of promotion and were surprise when some thought the long over due silver bullet was finally used on Chris Houghton and Adams took us down either to late for a change in fortunes or not up to the job and sorry to say not much better in the Championship.
I for one was sorry to see Houghton go as I thought he was possibly the best equipped for a promotion
Then to everyones amazement an unknown manager from north of the Border was give the chance of kick starting our season and we had a great day at Wembley.
As you say reading stats and working out permutations is hard graft and getting the right ones nigh impossible.
It is hard enough getting the next game prediction right but guessing the next 11/12 games will drive you and the family crazy.
Roll on a good home win on Fruday night, Sheff Wed dud us a favor last night and as Lampard said any team in this league can beat anyone else on a given day.
Onwards and upwards
OTBC
Great Analysis once again .
If you take into account the different characters who make up the management/coaching roles & their back room staff? in the teams still “in with a good shout?” I certainly know which one I’d like !! And that is why I’d always say
“No contest !” Fans just enjoy this unbelievable ride we’re on & rejoice in the fabulous Football we are experiencing ???????#CTID
The really annoying thing is that next time we have a n average/poor season we will look back dreamily on this time and long for it to happen again. This means we should be enjoying every minute of this (as per Hannah Shaddock’s excellent MFW article) but we just can t can we? Football is so frustrating.
Good points, Kathy.
Daniel Farke is encouraging us to stay relaxed and enjoy the ride. However hard that sometimes is – eg watching the final ten minutes of the Sheffield derby – let’s try.
So right Kathy, come May we might all require counselling!
I consider myself a pragmatist but find emotion takes over at times like this. The reoccurring dream of being 0-2 down in the 89th minute then scoring 3 including a 96th min Pukki penalty and the roof coming off the upper Barclay…. trouble is we know this season we are capable of such feats, (may be not the penalty)!
As you and Hannah say, just enjoy every moment, we are so lucky to be part of this. Supporters of the ‘Big’ clubs can never experience the emotions of supporting a ‘yoyo’ team. All the highs and lows puts everything on such an intense level. How exciting it is for us when we play Man Utd, Liverpool, Spurs, Man City but it’s not the same for the fans of those sides.
It’s just wonderful to have the canary yellow & green running through us in good times and bad.
I think that the Man U and Spurs supporters will have experienced the ups and downs this season.
The liverpool supporters will really be expecting the Title but will have to go to Man C to see it again
Great comment, Colin. On present form, of course, that 96th minute penalty would probably go OVER the roof of the Barclay…
Great column Stewart.
If 90 points is the target we have 11 games to get 21 so just shy of the holy grail of 2 per game.
Considering we have so far lost only 6 out of 35, and given that last night’s draw effectively means we can now lose one more than Sheffield United, my calculator says that we could possibly lose up to 4 more games before the season ends.
That would surely be the wobble to end all wobbles, but given the personnel we have both on and off the pitch is something I just cannot countenance……
Ooohhhh, my brain hurts, but book that open top bus now!
O T B C
A great read Stew – I thought in advance that there might have been a more technical spin on it but I’m glad there wasn’t if you see what I mean.
You’ve perfectly addressed what we are all thinking – anticipating in fact.
It’s ours to stuff up. But I really don’t believe we will. Too much has gone into this season for us to derail ourselves now.
One game at a time? Sure and let’s keep that going to the end. Nothing will be easy but I’ve not been this confident in eons.
And I am the ultimate pessimist.
Thanks, Martin.
I’m picturing you on the balcony of City Hall with Delia and Michael….
Massive ha!
I’m not biting beyond saying if I had such an invite I’d take the John Lennon view of it.
Anyway a very well-constructed and most enjoyable read.
Sorry to put a ‘damp squib’ on things, but City Council have said no lorries on the Lord Mayor’s Procession, so we may not be able to use the bus for the same reason!!!
We’ll have to wait and see on that one.
Let’s cross that bridge when we come to it, Ed!
Great read Stewart but I’m afraid i find it impossible not to keep going through all the different permutations. It gives me comfort as logic shows we should go up. I know this means nothing but ?♂️
Thanks, Julian.
I’m convinced my advice is wise – but as you can tell, I won’t be following it….