Daniel Farke was right. He was right in saying that City were the better side and they dominated most of the stats, just as he was right in saying we were desperately unlucky not to have won the game.
But they didn’t win it.
For the sixth time in six games, they were left licking their wounds and asking themselves ‘how did that one manage to get away?’ Six in six.
And all set against the backdrop of City playing some really beautiful football – up there, in fact, with some of the best Farkeball of last season.
All of which leads to the conclusion that we’re not millions of miles away from being a decent side, but which then, in turn, begs the question ‘why the hell are we now 20th and seven points from safety?’
Naturally, social media exploded into a frenzy of finger-pointing and recriminations – some of it (as I understand) about as distasteful as it can get – but in the spirit if 2019, most squabbles descended into a binary choice, with no quarter given and few acknowledgements that opposing views may have even an element of worthiness.
Lucky/unlucky
No-one could seriously argue that City weren’t unlucky yesterday. Aside from creating numerous presentable chances, there was that goalline clearance from Douglas Luiz that defied logic. Alex Tettey wasn’t alone in believing that every footballing god in the Universe was conspiring against us. An it’s not going to be our day moment if ever there was one.
But, as I attempted to argue on Twitter post-match, you don’t tend to end up bottom-of-the-league after 19 games just because you’ve endured more than your fair share of bad luck. Somewhere along the line, aside from the misfortune that tends to go hand-in-hand with relegation battles, there have to have been some deficiencies that have led to you being there.
Equally, those who point to the injury crisis from hell are right to do so. With a squad that had, say, just the standard handful of injuries and knocks I tend to think we’d have got a foothold in this league so much quicker than we did.
It’s easy, of course, to bemoan the lack of fortune on and of the pitch since August but it’ s also important to remember that last season, as befitting a team that won the title, we came out on the right side.
And putting our predicament down to solely bad luck ignores those games where, even with a patched-up team, we have been architects of our own downfall – I’m thinking Burnley (a) and Watford (h), in particular, where we came up short because we were error-ridden and not good enough on the day.
Farke
I struggle to stay rational when debating those who think the answer is to change the head coach, so if this is a little one-sided… sorry. With the hand he has been dealt, I’d say Daniel Farke has done a more than okay job and has lately managed to find a way of getting them back playing that easy-on-the-eye football that we all loved last season (well, apart from that ‘hoof’ bloke in the River End).
He has also made us look more solid defensively at times, but the problem has been marrying the two together and finding a performance that offers solidity while not compromising on the attacking thrust. Yesterday was, probably, the closest we have come but was undone by marginal failings at both ends of the pitch. Again.
In an ideal world, as diplomatic as he was over his meagre summer transfer kitty, it goes without saying he would have preferred to have had a bigger budget to work with. I accept that under our self-imposed self-funding model, every pound has to work doubly hard and it made sense to reward those who got us to the Premier League in the first place, but no-one expected us to spend less than a million in permanent transfer fees. I’m not sure even Stuart Webber expected that.
There’s being frugal and sensible, and there’s Premier League suicide. We went with the latter and Farke was forced to try and create a second miracle in the space of 12 months. One miracle too many.
But this doesn’t make him exempt from criticism and he’s made mistakes along the way this season just as the players have. He’s never been the most decisive when it comes to substitutions and the very late triple change against Wolves was a classic example. His removal of Buendia yesterday was baffling at the time but in fairness, there may well have been mitigating circumstances.
One thing I won’t criticise him for is not having a Plan B, when for most, Plan B involves banging it long and getting it into the box at the earliest opportunity. We don’t have the tools to do that successfully, it’s not part of the ethos. Won’t happen. But maybe we do need a Plan A(1), Plan A(2) etc
Self-funding/Not self-funding
This one is obviously worthy of more than a few paragraphs, but with every defeat, the dissenting voices get louder – just as they do in the comments on this site.
The self-funding model is one that looked great when it led us to the title last season but looks vulnerable right now as we languish in 20th. It necessitates the sale of players, almost regardless of division, and in doing so places a glass ceiling on our level of ambition.
We sell Ben Godfrey, for example, so then you need a centre-back replacement – but without a budget befitting a Premier League club you either buy potential or you promote from within. Either way, the replacement will be unable to hit the ground running Ben Godfrey style, and certainly won’t be better.
We sell Pukki at the end of season … how do you replace him with similar quality? Yes, we nabbed him in the first place and made him a better player, but that doesn’t happen every time and even if we get did get lucky again, would that make us a better team? At best, we’d tread water.
Villa, however, are a classic example of splashing the cash to no avail. They were (let’s face it) rotten yesterday – in danger of stinking the place out – and but for Conor Hourihane’s intervention would have felt the wrath of Villa Park. Yet they spent £150 million is the summer. Fulham did it the season before.
So the answer is not automatically chucking ten of millions at it. But the answer is definitely chucking more than £750,000 at it. Just two or three players, forensically identified to fit in with the group and with the culture, would have made a huge difference to where we are now. Players who would have made us better.
As it transpired, none of the summer newcomers proved better than what we already had. As a squad it didn’t improve and which is partly why we didn’t look or feel like we belonged in those first couple of months of the season. We do now… it looks like we feel we belong and can compete, but it’s almost too late – and we do lack quality in crucial moments.
I love Michael and Delia for what they’ve done for this club. I do question if they’ve tried hard enough to explore all the available options of giving Farke and Webber a more robust budget to work with. It was easy last season – winning sides are easy to manage from boardroom level; less so when you’re struggling in the Premier League.
If we go down, as looks a distinct possibility, we’ll be in decent shape from a balance sheet perspective. In that regard, it’s a job well done from Stuart. But the model relies on us doing a 2018/19 all over again – and seasons like that don’t come along too often. The Burnley model – as it’s become known – is riddled with risk. I’d rather make a concerted effort not to have to run that risk again.
But.as I’ll no doubt be informed, it’s Delia and Michael’s club and they’ve earned the right to do with the club what they wish.
I just want it to be the best it can possibly be. Being gallant, aesthetically pleasing losers is losing its sheen. Sorry.
Engaging, measured, evidenced: Absolutely a refreshing contrast to the wider “spirit of 2019”. Thank you!
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Excellent summary, Gary. I know I am a perennial optimist, but believe we have the right players and the right coach to get us to 17th or higher.
To me the reason we are in the position we are in is because of the injury crisis we had earlier in the season, particularly with regard to centre backs. The performance improved considerably once Zimbo came back. Since then virtually every game has been one where we have gone away with the feeling that we deserved more points from that.
My criticism of yesterday is that of the substitutions. It is a truth universally acknowledged that Cantwell tires about the 60 minute mark. Also, there was only 48 hours until the next match. Why on earth weren’t the changes made earlier?
The difference between good and bad teams is the ability play for the whole 90 minutes. That is why we did so well last season and are doing so poorly this.
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It’s not self funding and we need to stop using that phrase. It also didn’t look good when the books came out. If we weren’t promoted then we were screwed.
As I said on Twitter last night, if Delia was actually called Mohammed from one of those “camel” countries (her words, not mine), then people would be outraged.
Football does have a racism problem btw and no one ever responds to Delias multiple use of the phrase “camels coming to Carrow Road”.
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I thought as soon as I’d posted it, Dave’s going to tell me it’s not self-funding 😉
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Do you think we are self funded?
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I take your point totally … not arguing. I used the term because that’s how it’s described!
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Self funding in the context of either an education course or health care scheme is one thing, from a football perspective it’s widely accepted to mean monies self generated via gate receipts, other commercial activities and TV monies.
However, virtually every club tends to operate on a basis where expenditure exceeds income and therefore typically attempts to balance the books through player trading.
Norwich is no different in this context, not least because of the huge differences in TV monies between the Premier League and the Championship.
Where NCFC does differ from most clubs is that its owners don’t (perhaps I should say can’t) supplement trading losses through either the injection of new share capital or personal loans – which typically tend to be written off.
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Once again very well put Gary.
Farke has done a brilliant job given the appalling hand he’s been handed by our owners.
What seems to always be forgotten is Delia has been in charge for over twenty years and the club has not moved on. We’re still as poor as church mice and I can’t see things improving in the near future.
I’m sick and tired of being labelled as little Norwich and think the time is long overdue for new owners who can provide the finance to take us to the next level.
A lengthy spell in an increasingly expensive championship would force Delia’s hand unless she wishes to own a division 1 or 2 side. I hope she finally sees the light.
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We need owners that want to invest. If Delia & Michael don’t attract investment, then they are a pointless exercise in self publicity.
The Premium League is a very serious business and one that is way, way beyond them.
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Very good Summary as always Gary.
I was truly devastated yesterday because as good as last season was this one is starting to feel equally as bad. Perhaps we came up too soon ?
No one can fault the transparency of those at the top as they were honest with the fans from day one regarding funds for recruitment. My question is what is the strategy to end the process of getting to the premier league but never being able to compete? I can’t remember a time the last time we had a decent and consistent centre back cable of playing in the premier league and always seems to be a downfall of our recruitment.
As you rightly summed up we have built a good squad but they are effectively in the shop window with no guarantee of finding good replacements or coming straight back up. The Burnley model as admirable as it was is risky and I am worried we will come down and end up back in mid table mediocrity like we did under Alex Neil and then end up taking 2-3 seasons to recover. As long as the club have a plan then I will continue to believe but by god it’s difficult right now.
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Great summary as always Gary. You make some salient points.
As the season drags on, the nu,ber of different ways you can describe a defeat diminish and it’s no surprise to see you deviate from the action to the growing anger away from the pitch.
The game itself was agonising, watching it on my daughters huge television compounded the frustration as I saw every expression, every head in hands moment as it unfolded. Chances to win half a dozen games, puncturing the defence of Aston villa on numerous occasions. Trybull, Hernandez and tettey unlucky, pukki and in particular Byram profligate.
How Byram didn’t bury one of those headers I’ll never understand.
Regarding Pukki, he ran his heart out, hampered obviously by his foot injury and lack of support from McLean, who seemed nowhere near him for most of the game. He’s been run into the ground by necessity, the cheapo free transfer from emergency ward ten is still laid up with some ailment or other, leaving the only option open to Farke as srbeny, a third division player at best. Self funding my 🍑.
After such an uplifting season, the impending acrimony is sad indeed. The feeling one gets speaking to fellow supporters is that farke, for all his little imperfections, deserved far better than the filthy trick played in him this summer. Most of us know where the blame lies and sooner or later the dam will burst. A goal or an error or a defeat will be the straw that breaks the camels back. I sincerely hope that everyone remembers Farke is not culpable for this mess.
So we go down rich, flogging players for big fees with parachute payments to come. Who on earth trusts smith and her cohorts to spend more than a tiny fraction on the team?
We are now on course for our lowest points total ever, the humiliation is taking shape and we are extracting pity from Ian Wright, who got it spot on. We didn’t need to spend like Aston villa, an obscene amount on dross. Just some surgery on the side to make it more robust and give experience.
One last observation. This fixture will be on the list next season.
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Excellent, measured article, Gary. The self funding model will not allow us to stay up and there should have been more money for Farke and Webber. All we can do as fans is stick with the team but raise the issue of the self funding model. Is there a middle way here where we get outside funding with the Smiths not necessarily losing control? Where they have a year or so of seeing whether the investment suits the club and where the investor(s) get a feeling for the club and whether they want to take control? Isn’t that what happened at Everton – Kenwright is still important there, though he no longer has control (I know that Everton will not seem like the finest of examples given their troubles of the last 3 years….but a new stadium beckons and a lot of money has been spent..albeit not particularly successfully). And yet a small part of the reason I felt so pleased with last season was because we had done it the right way without massive investment – the main reason being the scintillating football.
We can’t have it both ways and the fear is that we’ll go down and slide into mid table mediocrity. Part of the joy of the last 11 seasons has been getting promoted and perhaps the best we could hope for in the EPL is mid table whatever the investment.
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Part of our success last year was finding Pukki in space and he’d bury it. Buendia was catalyst most of the time.. remember THAT statistic. This year Buendia has a very high number of assists to substitute him was strange.. We don’t have many goalscorers… Cantwell and Hernandez are amongst those.
Sadly, we dominated Arsenal and Leicester at times Sheffield Utd and Wolves for a complete half and Villa for almost 90 minutes.. but have come away with 2 points..
As I tweeted yesterday if its relegation let’s go down fighting
0
Fantastic piece as always Gary.
Whilst I agree with most of the points raised and comments made, I feel that as a club, the promotion surprised almost everybody, and would perhaps have been better managed (if that’s the right word) had it taken the (as we are told) expected 3 or 4 years.
Also, in retrospect, I think that the win against Man Citeh has unfortunately been made the benchmark against which we are measured. Yes; it was a fabulous performance, the like of which probably only happens once in a hundred attempts, but it does now seem like a millstone.
Oh, and exactly where are all these investors who wish to put millions into our club??
Pots of cash haven’t exactly made Villa, or Fulham guaranteed top half finishers.
O T B C
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Well Gary I’m glad I declared myself off duty for writing about the fall-out from this one!
I’m not sure I could have been that restrained, balanced and reasonable.
*I just want it to be the best it can possibly be. Being gallant, aesthetically pleasing losers is losing its sheen.*
Spot on mate and you’ll notice I didn’t include your word *sorry*. Why should you or any one of us supporters be *sorry*?
Interesting to read today that Jose is moaning about two games within 48 hours. Well, how would he cope with our limited squad at his disposal?
Anybody saying Daniel Farke should be junked is an eejit. I simply do not see what else he can do under his hamstrung circumstances.
My personal view is simply that you cannot blast the Smiths out without a stick of dynamite. They are untouchable – they have created their empire and will retain it the next generation and anybody who is disappointed by that can just bugger off, as long as they keep paying to watch, of course. How many shoulder-shrugging relegations have we had under their rule?
And who presided when we descended into 1p5wich territory [aka League One]?
I’ve never liked the concept of the *nanny state* in or out of football but self-funding sounded very noble at the time. So did the Charge of the Light Brigade, of course.
Native Americans believed that if someone photographed them they had simultaneously stolen their soul.
Got a Nikon Delia?
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Hi Martin.
That is a very eloquent rant and I like it.
Following the game on the Pinkun in game service Dave Freeze mentioned that the cameras kept zooming in on the worried looks on the Smith’s Faces, I replied to this saying possibly upset by the prawn sarnies but that didn’t get put up in the comments.
It is time for a new year resolution maybe the Smith’s just might let Webber spend some money to try and keep us up.
Pigs in blankets flying over CR comes to mind.
Onwards and upwards
OTBC
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Hi Alex
With so little time between Villa and Tottenham, Gary and I decided I’d wait until after Spurs before reappearing – we’ve got two excellent previews instead!
I never follow a match via that media but I do know Dave Freezer can get inundated with comments and can’t reply to them all. It’s quite high pressure stuff in its way.
What NCFC will spend in January me and Mrs P could cover by selling our respective dwellings and have change left for a Nandos [not available at Delia’s Canary Catering]. But we’re neither rich or dumb enough to do it.
And they’d find a reason to reject our investment anyway. Honestly if we won £20 billion we wouldn’t give a single quid to the Club while they are there – and we have all the local loyalty and credibility that they crave. But they’d find something they didn’t like about us. Or anybody else tbh.
It’s so sad cos we’re really close to being a VERY competitive side at PL level.
Cheers and speak with you after Spurs.
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Yeah my 3 sons will be giving it too me via WhatsApp during the all being Spurs supporters,
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It is true that Farke is operating with a severe restrictive regime and has given us some scintillating football BUT you cannot win football matches on points. We have failed to take advantage of good approach play for six games in a row – what has Farke changed to address this – nothing. If you make 3 subs at once it destroys your rhythm so what has he learned about the use of subs in the time he has been with us – nothing. I love the style we play and believe we have got the players to survive but cannot afford the naivety of the manager. One final complaint – stop whinging in interviews and instead of saying we are favourites for position 20 start saying we are too good for that!! It’s called man management. If the manager has accepted relegation that is precisely what we will get. (I would put money on Watford escaping. ) I think Farke needs to be put under some pressure reference his position and we MUST give him some money in January.
3
Great read Gary with a good analysis.
Farke remains a good coach. Changing managers would not make the players any better. I’m pleased that you agree with me that we cannot have a plan B as a way of playing as we would have to change virtually a whole squad. When Pullis was at Stoke nobody suggested he should play Farkeball with the ball played to feet. His squad was built for the ball being played in the air and crosses coming in.
Stuart Webber is astute enough to know what to do next. He has said that we got promoted earlier than his plan envisaged. This season will allow us to pay off last season’s loss. The parachute payments will put us in a decent position financially. A number of players will move on in the summer as they will want to further their careers. We should get good fees for them. The academy then needs to fill the gaps or astute signings like Pukki or Byram, etc., etc..
If we get relegated then it will be a test to get back up but we should be in a decent shape to fill the gaps in the squad. I just hope that none of those left think they are entitled to another promotion, which I thought Alex Neil’s squad did. That was reinforced by a good start to the season.
It is an interesting debate about investment by rich owners. I think the debate needs to start with a proposition of what type of club the owners and fans want. I want a team that entertains me and gives me memorable moments. I’m in the Delia school of thought that I enjoy the Championship more than the Premier League. I remember more of last season than I will of this. Our other recent promotions have been memorable and enjoyable. I can’t ever see us, whatever the investment, getting in the top 6 in the Premier League so will always be nervous that a relegation might be on the cards if the “luck” is against us. I think that others will have different views on what they want.
I think that with luck on our side with injuries and on the field we may well have got at least another 10 points by now.
OTBC
1
We are not self funding. In excess of 20,000 of us fork out for season tickets each year and are being seriously taken for granted. A small considered investment in August would have made a huge difference at this stage. We have a good manager being dealt a duff hand. It is time for the Board to invest or get out.
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Fan funding would be a more accurate title. At present, it feels like being the victim of a mugging.
2
Excellent article Gary.
I agree the injuries have been the biggest reason we are in the mess we are in, to me Zimmerman & Hanley’s return has definitely given us a more solid look. And the closeness of our last few games bare this out.
And I suppose there comes a point when so much bad luck has to be considered as poor finishing, poor final ball or poor concentration.
Which comes to the budget, there is an old saying you get what you pay for. I must admit I was for everyone of last years championship winning squad being given a chance and I stand by that.
However spending only a million, was in retrospect for some at the time for others more than a bit naïve. Imagine for an outlay of £1.-£2 million we could have had Jordan Rhodes to come on at Villa. That would have given poor old Teemu some much needed help.
The club accounts show to keep up our Income/Expenditure ratio on the level on championship income & spending what that means every year to maintain that balance we need to
sell a £20-£ 30 million player every year.
Then we come to Delia and Michael !!! I know for a fact they looked into investment
( Newmarket area among others ) a few years ago and got no interest and I understand they felt a certain amount of frustration.
The big question is was it to sell up or to remain in control ? I just hope for all the good they have done for the club they are not putting their position above the best outcome for the club.
It must be hard to give up something that they both love, but if and its a mighty big if to me, a good offer came along I hope they would consider it.
But this is fraught with danger just look at Blackburn, Leyton Orient, Bolton, Bury and Coventry.
Every time I read ” we must get rid of Delia ” my question is how ? its not like getting rid of a manager, that easy. And to get rid of Farke would be madness. Who would we trust more to make another Championship challenge next season other than Daniel.
0
Evidence suggests that getting 28 points from the next 19 games is not going to happen if things stay as they are. What if Pukki, Buendia or Zimmermann get injured? We could not cope without the likes of Zimbo, Hanley, Aarons, etc, so why would that miraculously change in the second half of the season? We must get players in – either bought or on loan – for the second half of the season and then see what happens. There are plenty of discarded veterans not currently featuring in Premiership squads who know what to do and we badly need their help. Given that we went down with 23 points at Christmas last time the situation is dire.
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