I’ve been pondering a mystery.
No – not why I’m still overweight and unfit. Little mystery about that, I’m afraid.
The mystery is this. City are bottom of the table, with 3 wins out of 22, and relegation is all-but-certain. I’m disappointed, of course – but why am I not angry?
I know some readers will say that it’s Stewart’s way, that he’s always a loyalist/happy clapper.
But that isn’t true. Three years ago I was distinctly angry, and expressing it both privately and publicly. Our squad of self-important players enjoying Premier League wages, but giving us pusillanimous performances in the Championship, wasn’t to my taste or satisfaction; MFW was one of the places I said so.
My feelings are very different now. By April 2017 our club was in serious difficulty. We’d kept together that high-wage squad and gambled on it bouncing back to the Premier League. From early in the season, though, it was apparent that it lacked the attitude to do so. I thought the Board waited too long to act.
When it acted, though, it did so with purpose. To the disdain of our friends at Ipswich – worth remembering they were in the same division with us at the time – we changed the structure of the club and brought in a dynamic young Sporting Director, who in turn brought in a dynamic young Head Coach.
Their hands were tied financially: the only way out of the hole was to develop and sell a couple of key assets (notably James Maddison), then to assemble a team comprising academy products plus talent from elsewhere that Stuart Webber could identify and purchase on a shoestring budget.
The achievement last year was phenomenal, and clearly ahead of the schedule mapped out by Webber and Farke. Promotion transformed our finances, in that we no longer had to sell. It didn’t transform them, though, in terms of money available to spend on new players.
Much of the initial tranche of Premier League money was earmarked to meet a variety of obligations, including promotion bonuses, new contracts and overdue upgrading of our facilities. Those obligations, combined with our lack of deep-pocketed owners, left us at a clear disadvantage to everyone else in the Premier League.
Yes, we’ve produced some sub-par performances – I was at Brighton, soaked to the skin and watching from almost pitchside, so I don’t need reminding – and some of the Head Coach’s game management is open to questioning. But I feel none of the general sense of resentment I felt three years ago.
I’ll come back to the issue of style at the end, but for now I’ll just say: I’ve genuinely enjoyed the commitment and quality of football we’ve seen from our team in much of this season.
Our self-financing model can be debated, of course, especially when it may appear we’re fatalistic about going down. But I believe that appearance is deceptive. No, we’re not going to jeopardise the club’s viability with wild spending that might – or more likely wouldn’t – keep us in the PL. I’m firmly convinced, though, that we have ambition.
The closest model of recent years is Burnley. After their first promotion, Burnley came straight down in 2015. They were working to a plan, though; they kept Sean Dyche and his approach, got promoted again and established themselves in the top flight. Like Norwich, they were financially much stronger after the second promotion, used the learning from their first time at the top, and achieved their aim.
No-one can or should assume we’ll bounce straight back, of course. Let’s not forget, though, what we did last season. If we find ourselves this summer facing a season of Championship football, we’ll be doing it with a far stronger base than in summer 2018.
We may sell some of our high-value assets. Don’t forget, though, that they’re only high-value because Webber and Farke have made them so. I very much doubt Webber has run out of targets, and he’ll have much greater financial leeway than before to land them. I very much doubt Farke has lost his ability to turn raw talent into effective first-team players.
As Robin Sainty said in his recent EDP column: “Given the miracles Webber was able to work with next to nothing, I would certainly have faith in him to use a decent budget effectively”.
A final word about style – and here I’ll hold my hand up to a charge of inconsistency. As my Twitter followers are no doubt sick of hearing, in politics it’s all about winning. I’m not so sure in football.
Of course I want to win; I’m still to be avoided for a couple of hours after we lose. Even in some of our defeats, though, I’ve had real pleasure watching Farkeball. The suggestion that we replace Daniel Farke with a more pragmatic (ie defensive) traditional manager makes my heart sink.
I don’t think we will; I desperately hope we don’t.
Excellent article, Stewart. I’m glad to see another supporter who acknowledges our situation and the long term strategy of the club as opposed to the vocal fans baying for blood. I’m fed up of the moaning about ‘lack of spending’ by those who it appears do not comprehend how the club must be run to stay afloat and your example in Burnley is a fine one. We don’t have super rich owners and are not in a fashionable part of the country to warrant the sort of attention that will encourage a multi billionaire to invest so we have to cut our cloth accordingly. I too hope that Farke is kept on (and I’m sure he will be) when we go down and we can build again for the next promotion challenge.
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Great article. Many will say the approach is too much of a gamble. Any other approach is also a gamble! Ultimately the main thing is to retain the services of Farke & Webber.
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Hi Stewart.
A very well balanced article that I enjoyed reading – good to see you back!
I would only disagree with you concerning our perceived level of ambition. If there’s a topic to split NCFC supporters it’s that one:-)
As you said in the article and Richard so rightly echoes above, it is vital that we hold on to both SW and DF as long as we possibly can.
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Excellent summary! We need to hold our nerve and look for the bigger picture. Sure some of our best will want to move to keep the salary and status. Who wouldn’t?
But the work going on in the Academy plus the recruitment team’s eye for an unpolished diamond will give us a fighting chance of a swift return to the top table. Keep the faith.
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100% certain Farke and Webber will still be here next season. It’s disrespectful and unhelpful to suggest otherwise. Totally agree with all you’ve written Stewart.
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Who was in charge when this whole mess came about? The supposedly safe pair of hands, Delia.
Webber and Farke have far exceeded all expectations and will have cleared the mountain of debt when we are back in the championship next year. However Webber will be off in two years time and I can’t see Farke remaining here much longer when he sees all he has created destroyed by the limited financial abilities of our owners.
I don’t blame Delia for not being a billionaire, I only wish she was because I’m sure she would pour it into her beloved City.
What I do blame her for is failing to see that City should be an established premier league club and this will only come about when she sells to new owners with larger bank accounts.
The roller coaster ride has to end before we are back in division one!
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If everyone with rich owners who thought they “should be an established Premier League club” achieved their aim, there’d be 35-40 teams in the division.
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As one of this countries major cities I don’t think it is too ambitious to expect premier league football atNorwich.
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Hmm. don’t think that actually works John.
Roughly speaking even if London, Liverpool and Manchester only had one team each we’d still be around 20th – 25th based on population. Plymouth would be well above us, Dudley, Portsmouth and Walsall just above, Northampton, Luton and Southend just below us.
I think you’ve just accidentally proved that by that criteria we’re actually doing rather well….
But it’s not that simple, obviously!
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It’s not that simple I’ll admit but you have to take into account the current economic growth within those cities.
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I think you’ll find that’s where we are.
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Yet again the cry of “sell to new owners with bigger bank accounts”! Just who are these mystery philanthropists? You only have to look down the A140 to see what a multi-millionaire can do. We’ve avoided that trap twice in recent years, once with the guy who eventually got QPR, and then with the fake Italian lawyer. I’d rather have an owner who cares, even if her pockets aren’t deep, than one who buys in just to asset strip the club.
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You are quoting the bad exceptions rather than the Leicester’s and Sheffield United. Not to mention Manchester City who were a league below us at one time.
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It’s as easy to find good examples as it is to find the bad ones, but it’s not easy to find the right ones to actually put their money on the table. I would happily accept a change of ownership if you could guarantee it would be a real benefactor, and not a Marcus Evans. I remember the Ipswich fans waving fivers at us – now just have a look at the TWTD forum. There’s a considerable level of disenchantment.
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Marcus Evans pumped a lot of money into Ipswich. His mistake was Roy Keane. He continues to pump around £5 million p.a. into the club as it’s been in the lower leagues for some time.
If we remain in the championship for longer than the parachute payments who is going to pump that sort of money into our club?
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I agree with much of what you have written. My biggest concern is that we are likely to sell many of our current squad for decent money but not give Webber much of that money to invest in new players.
I have no doubt we will retain Webber and Farke. Webber will of course have a list of targets. Will he be able to find another Pukki or Buendia? Will we have such a great crop of Academy products coming through together. I think it will be difficult to assemble a squad for the championship as strong as the 2018/19 squad. Remember it took some players a year to bed in to Farkeball.
Nonetheless Webber has a long term plan and our best chance is to follow the plan.
11
An outstanding article Stewart and no mention of VAR.
I actually gave up my ST after the 16-17 season and went to quite a few games the following season and towards the end of that season I saw glimpses of what DFF was trying to do, so was fortunate enough to get an ST for the 18-19 season and NO WAY am I giving it up in future.
Yes, we’ve had our injury problems, losing/drawing games when winning/outstanding displays from opposition GKs; but from what I see/hear, the majority of fans are still completely behind the current board and management. To stay in the PL with such a young and inexperienced side was always going to a ‘Bridge too Far’, unless we had some luck and unfortunately we’ve had the complete opposite.
DF and his staff have developed some incredible players and I’m sure most fans will expect several to leave in the summer and I fully expect the £22M we received for JM to be surpassed. They’ll leave with my gratitude and thanks.
Naturally, there are a handful of fans who would like Delia and Michael to sell to a mega rich owner, but as has been said, look what happened at QPR!!!
As I said to Martin yesterday, I don’t expect us to bounce straight back up, but I do hope that SW/DF will still be at the helm for the 21-22 season and leave behind a legacy and a future for our club that didn’t even exist prior to their arrival at Colney/CR
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Hi Ed
As so many of us agree [I’ve already mentioned it above] it is vital that Webber and Farke remain for as long as we can persuade them to.
What concerns me is that one or both of them might want to move on if the right offer came along. If nothing else we have had some wonderful football to enjoy with them at the helm and I’ve loved Farkeball virtually since its inception.
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Thanks Stewart for a very sensible article.
We should not forget there are 3 teams relegated from the Premier League, one may be us, but two will be teams that have thrown obscene amounts of money at the problem. If we had gone down that route there is no guarantee we would not have been the third.
As fans we should get behind the players, Daniel Farke and Stuart Webber, we owe it to them for the superb entertainment they gave us last year. (The best year in my opinion in the 60 years I have supported this great club).
Oh and we still have a club!
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The current owners admit the club has nearly gone under once or twice while they have been the owners. The current situation isn’t necessarily the the safe option the way the game is continually demanding greater financial support.
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We mustn’t let inconvenient facts get in the way of the love in.
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A few players will go in the summer window, but not many as some fear.
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Do you have the access to the list of who’s going then – otherwise how do you know – hopeful more like!
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Totally agree Andrew, and following yesterday’s signing it obvious that SW already has his finger on that particular pulse!!
O T B C
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I hope you’re right Stewart. You are right about keeping Webber and Farke. And you’re right when you say: ‘Much of the initial tranche of Premier League money was earmarked to meet a variety of obligations, including promotion bonuses, new contracts and overdue upgrading of our facilities.’ But to do so little business, knowing that the rest of the money will be there by the end of the season is negligent and gave the club little chance of staying up (OK we could still do it).
I know spending guarantees nothing (unless you have the resources of the top 5 or 6) but to me it’s the usual tale of lack of ambition….I wonder how many more times we’ll clamber back. If we don’t then we’ll probably still have a financial crisis 4 years down the line. I think the owners need to open up to outside investment – unlikely I know.
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Sorry to be a dissenting voice but whilst I agree with much that you say I believe the major stumbling block has been the inability of Farke to learn from his mistakes. We won the championship by scoring more goals than our opponents, sometimes by the skin of our teeth. No team could survive in the premiership that way. I too love the silky football but we needed to apply a bit of pragmatism in the way we set the team up. The galling thing for me is that we have a team capable of survival but the manager constantly referred to us finishing twentieth – some man management skills there eh!! I am not advocating it but had we employed a Nigel Pearson we would be climbing the league table. Farkeball is good to watch but fatally flawed!! He needs to develop Farkeball 2 and pretty damn quick.
2
I may be mistaken, but I thought all games in all leagues were won by scoring more goals than the opponent. I presume the point you’re trying to make is that even last year we conceded too many goals. The difference this season is that we’re not scoring enough. As for switching to a Nigel Pearson, probably the closest to his style of football who is currently available is Neil Warnock. No thank you.
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Oh we’re scoring enough. We just can’t defend. We’ve never been able to defend under Farke and it was obvious we needed to strengthen the defense.
We have scored 22 goals this season. Sheffield United have scored. 24. We have 14 points, they have 32 points.
TBH if we go down I’m more concerned about losing Pukki than Farke or Webber. He was the key difference between promotion and the playoff lottery.
The person on Canary Call was right, there are no benefits of being relegated. So we shouldn’t pretend otherwise.
2
Many thanks for everyone’s comments. Some reasonable reservations – but I confess I’m surprised at the degree of sympathy with my view!
Football is dominated by short-term thinking. The people now in charge at Norwich are determinedly committed to a longer-term plan. My admiration for City fans has risen even further with so many (not all, of course) understanding where we are and continuing to back Webber & Farke
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Sometimes short-term thinking can be right, and long-term thinking can be wrong. It depends more on the quality of that thinking.
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Hi Stewart
An interesting read.
A couple of questions for this season transfer window
1) City have lost 2 Germany players and recruited 2 from Germany so we are back to square 1 with overseas players is that the full quota city can have.
2) City are being rumoured to want a Left Back from Spain 26 year old ex Barcelona youth and in his last 6months of contract price £1.5m can this still happen or will it be a pre contract.
3) City are also rumoured to want a 19 year old CB from Ajax who is on loan at Heerenven, Ajax don’t want to end the loan as it means they have to compensate Heerenven but city could buy him and leave him at the club.
4) Can we see anymore permanent departures.
5) Will city make Amadou a permanent signing as a long term replacement for Tettey, or will L Thompson get a chance to prove his worth.
It looks like we are hoping that the 2 new signings could help to kickstart a recovery but also adapt to the style for which ever league we are in next season.
Onwards and upwards
OTBC
0
Thanks. All good questions – which should mean I know the answers, but not in this case!
Given that the rumoured price for Amadou was several millions, I doubt we’d do that deal if we get relegated.
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I agree with your view of the setup in our club now and into the future.
We don’t need to look further than our own club to see how bl++dy difficult it is to stay in the Premier League!!
2015/16 season it was spend spend spend = Relegation
This season prudent spending = Relegation
What all this proves to me is a player’s high price tag does not guarantee quality or that the player fits into the system being adopted by the manager at the time, for example, Wolfswinkel and Hughton.
I certainly hope that SW and DF will still be insitu come next season. Long term I would suggest its essential to keep them both here.
I think particularly in SW’s case if we are relegated he will be do his utmost to get us back to the Premier League if he want to achieve his long term ambition of working in Europe (presumably at an elite club).
OTBC
3
There are a few key points missed in this article that should give everyone cause for concern.
1) We had a good crop of youngsters out on loan and coming through last time we were in the Championship. This time we see most of them ‘returned to sender’ as not being good enough for lower league clubs.
2) The club is all about bank balance. Even when funds should be available they will be held back. Without a wealthy owner we are supporting a bank balance, not a team, and need to get used to it,
3) To be self sufficient in the Championship the average salary should be £5,000 a week. It’s actually £16,000. We can’t support average salaries for very long.
4) Stuart Webber is here until 2022. Why would he be bringing in his best ‘discoveries’ next season when he has just a year left before he has to go and repeat the process elsewhere?
5) Even if, by some miracle, we do go straight back up – what exactly does everyone think would be different? We are not, and never will be under the current regime, equipped to even achieve mid table `premier league.
0
Thanks, Michael.
These are reasonable concerns, but I think your assessment may be unnecessarily downbeat. Taking your points:
1. I gather we do have a promising crop of youngsters coming through. Some, like Adam Idah, we’ve kept in the fold to be around the first team. And Stuart Webber hasn’t only recruited players for the first team; with less fuss, he’s added far more to the youth ranks than his predecessors did.
2/3. If we’re facing a Championship season this summer, we’ll be in a far stronger position than when Webber and Farke took over. The PL money has stabilised our finances and we’ll have almost no debt. So, unlike many other clubs who come down, our parachute payments will be used to build and keep a competitive squad. Agreed, we’ll have to cut back if we fail to get promoted in the first season or two – but until then we’ll have a stronger hand than when we did it last year.
4. Stuart Webber is here until AT LEAST 2022. Even if he were leaving then, it’s not in his character to hold back any ‘discoveries’. As anyone who’s met him will attest: as long as he’s employed here, he’ll give us his very best shot.
5. The Burnley analogy I used is worth looking at, if you have time. Coming back up is entirely possible if you’ve proved you can do it before. And coming up a second time, you have the experience and financial clout to be a stronger and more sustained presence in the PL.
Qualifying for the Europa League, as Burnley did, is of course a mixed blessing!
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