Historically my guest blogs and posts on MFW have had a pessimistic slant (I’d say realistic), but for once I come delivering good-ish news… I think!
Using a hugely (un)scientific model of predicting results I have calculated, with(out) 100% certainty, the final Premier League table of the season.
How is that possible?
Well, with the current trend of gauging performance by xG, rather than actualG, I’d suggest my new model of xRelegationWins is more important than actualRelegationWins.
Trademarks are pending.
With the preamble complete, now let me explain my (hugely flawed) methodology:
1. I have only included the teams that are reasonably catchable (ie. the current bottom six).
2. This table was calculated with 10 games to go (11 for Villa). Since then we’ve had one round of games (in grey) and only Brighton went against the prediction, getting a draw. Note the yellow highlighted box.
3. It’s based on an assumption that teams win all their home games against bottom-half-of-the-table opposition.
4. It assumes teams lose all other games.
5. It’s also based on teams winning or losing by one goal (for the purposes of calculating GD).
So, under these conditions and waith a fair wind, what does the final table look like? An Excel table…
Norwich, along with Watford, have the most successful run-ins. Both securing 12 points, while Brighton and Villa implode (with last night being a good start from a City perspective – Ed).
Earlier on I said I came bearing good-ish news. The ‘ish’ was because under this model City are still relegated. But, a massive but, only by goal difference.
One single additional point would secure safety for the Canaries. Daniel Farke’s ‘little miracle’ could become a reality.
I’ve read and heard frequently that we need seven more wins but I genuinely don’t believe our situation is that dire. The ability of the bottom six to consistently fail to capitalize on opportunities gives me hope. The must-wins keep in coming without City winning because others are not opening up that gap.
Of course, this is football and upsets happen on any given Saturday (or Sunday or Monday night) and the margins are fine. We simply cannot afford to slip up against any bottom team at home.
This starts at the weekend against Southampton, followed on April 11th by Brighton. Our performances against our rivals need to vastly improve from earlier this season, although, the prediction also suggests that our away game against Watford isn’t as crucial as may be suggested.
But, let’s win it anyway.
It sounds obvious, but we need to start scoring goals again. That may mean some hard decisions for Farke, including perhaps dropping an out-of-form Pukki and/or adopting a more gung-ho approach, and there were signs of that in the second-half at Bramall Lane.
Either way, we’re not ‘drawing’ our way out of this one.
We also need others to play their part. Brighton are the dark horses. Currently, they’re 15th, leading this particular pack, and for this to work their run-in must prove to be as difficult as it looks on paper (or on an Excel spreadsheet).
In summary, I hope this helps brighten your day and assures you that if we can somehow pick up that stray point from somewhere unexpected, then survival can still be a thing.
#OTBC
Brilliant. Chilled Cava for me tonight. Is the City Hall available for a Civic reception and an open top bus parade?
You’re right about our attacking options, Pukki needs a rest or more support. I’m even prepared to accept your stats, like a drowning man I’ll clutch at any available straws. If it comes to pass you’ll be able to sup a few free sherbets and bask in the glory.
Loving the optimism. Unfortunately your assumptions result in us winning 4 games out of 9 when we have so far won 5 out of 29 – it just ain’t gonna happen. Bookies 4% chance of survival from where we currently are seems more realistic. Not giving up, but I don’t see us getting 12 more points. I’m thinking 8 (wins v Southampton and Brighton; draws v West Ham and Burnley) and that won’t be enough.
Hi Stephen,
Of course it’s an outside possibility. I actually have no problem envisioning us winning four games. Leicester and Spurs showed we have it in us. But having the others fail quite so spectacularly is perhaps wishful thinking.
However, my key takeaway was that even if you look at that table and see the greens not as Wins, but simply a winnable fixture, we have plenty more than most.
Thanks for reading.
Hi Dave
Let me start by saying I enjoyed you article and hope you are right I never give up on city even when common sence says I should.
Livarpool supporters will jumping up and down once it is confirmed that the title is theirs but as I said a few weeks ago they are playing good football in a very poor league this year their chasing pack have endured big injuries whilst they have had the run of no injuries and the most VAR decisions in their favor, so the will be crowned champions that was in a one horse race.
At the other end of the table city have had an exciting season rarely having a consistent 11 to pick from, injuries that have taken there toll on confidence and results plus the loss of form from our star goal scorer.
Added to that none of the loaned in players have lived up to their hipe and as someone mentioned a few days ago it reminded us of that Rodent Glemn Roeder and his loans that done the dirty for city all those years ago.
City have not had any real luck this season and VAR has just compounded that with invisible lines indicating offside a couple of times, and the same can be said for those clubs around us so the run in will be more exciting than the title which is over and done.
Can Team Farke conjure up a miraculous escape only time will tell and if as you predict it goes to GD at least we can say we gave it a go.
Onwards and upwards
OTBC
Hi Dave,
Nice to read a positive article after the nonsense pessimism from Martin yesterday.
Of course, this isn’t done yet. In the last week, we’ve beaten Leicester and Spurs and narrowly lost to a Sheffield United team trying for Europe, We are clearly getting better, unlike Villa who are getting worse. It really is galling to have lost 6 points to them this season. What a difference they would have made.
Having said that, there is no room for error anymore. We simply have to win the MUST WIN games, starting with Southampton on Saturday.
I really hope you are right with your optimistic outlook. For all the problems this season, I’d love to see this squad get another crack at this League.
Nonsense pessimism?
Pessimism yes.
Have a look on MFW tomorrow and you’ll think even less of me.
Not that I’ll care one jot one way or the other:-)
Hi Martin,
You and I have disagreed many times before, but I’ve always respected your opinion. I just felt that yesterday was a bit too much. I simply don’t understand how a long time NCFC supporter can give up at this stage.
I look forward to tomorrow’s piece!! ?
Cheers Derek.
I think there’s other stuff coming down the track so you might well have to wait for a week or so for mine.
I can only refer my views on giving up to an old Yardbirds song: Shapes of Things. I can’t link it from here unfortunately.
Always good to hear from you.
Well, I always love a good Martin article and would give him a penny for his thoughts (but little more).
His article lent towards the probable, mine the possible.
What is interesting is that since I created that table there have been 18pts up for grabs (across all the teams), my “formula” predicted 0/18pts won, it’s only been off by 1pt with 1/18pts won.
So clearly scientifically accurate and not pure luck 😉
Am struggling to get my head round Dave B being applauded for his positivity. 🙂
Fine work, Dave!
I have a good Editor. Although the % he takes is very high.
Just come home from walking two mucky dogs:
Big bl00dy HA!!!
When I briefly ran my own business I found an excel spreadsheet was an excellent pick me up when things were not so good. The trouble was that the real world ( in the guise of Maggie Thatcher ) then intervened and reality returned.
Martin may be pessimistic but he is living in the real world I fear. If only Farke would try something different……………….!