Historically my guest blogs and posts on MFW have had a pessimistic slant (I’d say realistic), but for once I come delivering good-ish news… I think!
Using a hugely (un)scientific model of predicting results I have calculated, with(out) 100% certainty, the final Premier League table of the season.
How is that possible?
Well, with the current trend of gauging performance by xG, rather than actualG, I’d suggest my new model of xRelegationWins is more important than actualRelegationWins.
Trademarks are pending.
With the preamble complete, now let me explain my (hugely flawed) methodology:
1. I have only included the teams that are reasonably catchable (ie. the current bottom six).
2. This table was calculated with 10 games to go (11 for Villa). Since then we’ve had one round of games (in grey) and only Brighton went against the prediction, getting a draw. Note the yellow highlighted box.
3. It’s based on an assumption that teams win all their home games against bottom-half-of-the-table opposition.
4. It assumes teams lose all other games.
5. It’s also based on teams winning or losing by one goal (for the purposes of calculating GD).
So, under these conditions and waith a fair wind, what does the final table look like? An Excel table…
Norwich, along with Watford, have the most successful run-ins. Both securing 12 points, while Brighton and Villa implode (with last night being a good start from a City perspective – Ed).
Earlier on I said I came bearing good-ish news. The ‘ish’ was because under this model City are still relegated. But, a massive but, only by goal difference.
One single additional point would secure safety for the Canaries. Daniel Farke’s ‘little miracle’ could become a reality.
I’ve read and heard frequently that we need seven more wins but I genuinely don’t believe our situation is that dire. The ability of the bottom six to consistently fail to capitalize on opportunities gives me hope. The must-wins keep in coming without City winning because others are not opening up that gap.
Of course, this is football and upsets happen on any given Saturday (or Sunday or Monday night) and the margins are fine. We simply cannot afford to slip up against any bottom team at home.
This starts at the weekend against Southampton, followed on April 11th by Brighton. Our performances against our rivals need to vastly improve from earlier this season, although, the prediction also suggests that our away game against Watford isn’t as crucial as may be suggested.
But, let’s win it anyway.
It sounds obvious, but we need to start scoring goals again. That may mean some hard decisions for Farke, including perhaps dropping an out-of-form Pukki and/or adopting a more gung-ho approach, and there were signs of that in the second-half at Bramall Lane.
Either way, we’re not ‘drawing’ our way out of this one.
We also need others to play their part. Brighton are the dark horses. Currently, they’re 15th, leading this particular pack, and for this to work their run-in must prove to be as difficult as it looks on paper (or on an Excel spreadsheet).
In summary, I hope this helps brighten your day and assures you that if we can somehow pick up that stray point from somewhere unexpected, then survival can still be a thing.