I am not a clinician, biologist, or epidemiologist. I am not employed by a government agency (foreign or domestic), a sports authority, or the travel industry.
I ‘do’ websites.
Yet, I was warning my parents not to travel to abroad, had boxes of food in the basement, and foresaw the cancelling of fixtures, all weeks before anyone in the UK or US began panicking.
How?
I advise both The Lancet and Cell Press on their websites. These are two of the world’s most prestigious scholarly publishing houses. When they speak, people listen; what they publish, everyone reads.
Late in January, The Lancet published its first coronavirus content. Over the next month, our daily visits exploded, growth unlike anything I’ve witnessed. By mid-February, this was clearly a global event of historic proportions barreling towards us all.
It’s safe to say there is no sign of decline in coronavirus content being published or read. We are in the thick of it. The life science community charge on in hope of creating a vaccine. IF they are ever developed.
Vaccines can take years to create and disseminate. The clinical community continue to publish studies, hoping to identify treatments and reporting on the pandemic’s impact.
Again, I am not an expert. But the signals I see, showing how the health and science communities are using our publications, plus studies across the web, suggest you shouldn’t be booking holidays. I’m talking winter breaks, not summer sun (which should have long been cancelled). As historical data shows, these outbreaks resurge just as football season is due to gain momentum in autumn.
Which brings me to a three (possibly) unpopular conclusions.
Firstly, I’ve seen numerous tweets declaring “players should refuse to play if they don’t feel safe”. From my standpoint that’s neither useful, nor scientific. “Feeling safe” is subjective and I suspect very few people will feel safe this year. Giving side-eye to anyone coughing, sneezing, or getting to close to you in an open space will remain the 2020 norm.
Does anyone really expect to feel safe in a crowded football stadium? Or for players in a full-contact sport?
The decision to return to playing must be scientific, with reduced risk, and not decided by individual feelings. But we must accept that with any occupation, there can be no risk-free solution. Let’s not forget, players weren’t furloughed because ‘they’re still training and ready to play’.
Secondly, how to end the 2019/20 season is the least of the FA’s worries. That can be decided without a ball being kicked. Yes, it will be expensive. Refunds. Litigation. Teams in administration. But no lives need be lost.
However, the summer window is short. Very short when you’re suffering a worldwide pandemic. Let’s finish it now, either on points-per-game or cancel the season. Then move on.
Lastly, those who vocally object to empty stadiums and neutral grounds with microphones turned down to obscure swearing, need to reconsider their opinions. Do we really want half of London commuting round the country once or twice a week to rub shoulder-to-shoulder with locals, just in time for the second wave?
If there is to be a 2020/21 season we need either a vaccine, or a radically different sport. The coronavirus is playing the long-game and we must too.
That could mean no home or away matches, just a few neutral ‘clean as possible’ venues. No fans. No internationals. No pre-season friendlies. No spitting on the pitch. The season starting in spring. All games televised. A Zoom chorus of “On the Ball, City”. Online watching parties. Plus many more changes I can’t begin to comprehend.
Let’s accept that if the sport is to exist come next year, there must be short, medium, and long-term changes to the game and to the industry, and we may not like them all.
A cogent and powerful article, Dave.
By chance, I’ll be picking up some of your points in my new piece to follow shortly. Meanwhile, just one observation. Players will be talked through the precautions and safety arrangements of the proposed Restart. Given the emotional and financial pressures behind the project, though, isn’t it conceivable that they may feel unconvinced, and with reason?
As Brian Cox said recently, “there’s no such thing as ‘the science'”.
Cheers
Thanks for the response Stewart.
The current proposal is anything but convincing. Training in groups of five, no tackling, turn your face away etc… Considering there’s about 45 days until contracts start expiring it’s nonsensical to think the season can be finished. From that standpoint I disagree with Webber. It shouldn’t be finished on the pitch. It should just be finished. Like an F1 race that’s gone half distance.
I also agree with Brian Cox, partly. Scientists make predictions of which some are wrong, many scientists have conflicting opinions, some science is poorly done, some can never be reproduced, much never gets published.
At the same time there is a wealth of scientific literature on COVID-19 and previous pandemics and they point to sizable problems for next season, IMHO.
I fully appreciate that things are going to have to change, and even that we might have no football at all for the foreseeable future, including loosing the whole of next season.
What I can’t accept is the possibility of deciding this season on points-per-game. I’ve seen at least two variations on how this could be calculated, so which one do you choose. On a quick calculation, it wouldn’t change where the bottom three sit at the moment, so there’s not much point in using it. It also ignores the fact that there’s still almost twenty five percent of the season to go, with 27 points to play for for most, and 30 for Villa. No one is mathematically certain to go down, and no one in the Championship is certain to get promotion, or even make the top 6. Bournemouth are only in the bottom three on a goal difference of 1, and are on the same points as the two teams above them.
PPG is an unfair process, and not logical, since it takes no account of current form. Brighton are top of the bottom six, but have had horrendous recent form. I would hate to see PPG used.
Great Piece Dave.
Stuart Webber set a trap for the EPL yesterday.
By saying no team should be relegated from the Premiership unless the Championship gets up and running was very interesting. His comments were repeated by Brighton’s Glen Murray this morning again on Sky sports.
As for the trap, simple. If the EPL, FA or EFL say the Championship cannot resume due to it being “not financially viable” it will expose the real reason the Premier League want this season to start far earlier than I feel is safe, Money.
I think this maybe where the “relegation off the table story came from” Which Stuart dismissed with disgust by the way.
And you can see his point, Premier League players being asked to do this purely on clubs greed.
Cheer up the nation, my A**e.
Hi Dave.
Having no technical ability whatsoever apart from pre-Press methodology and more than a smidgeon of knowledge of Quark Express and Pagemaker back in the day I must say that The Lancet has left a mark on me.
In the late 60s one of dad’s best friends was a GP called Joe Gay who owned his own surgery in East London. He moonlighted at Guys Hospital, to I guess good reward.
Joe knew how much I loved books and used to try to wind me up by getting me to read aloud from the Jewish Chronicle when I was about eight. He used to say I would never be able to pronounce any of the Hebrew words [written in English].
By a miracle I got a few right and he was beside himself with laughter.
One day he came round to see us with his family and said something like “give these to Martin – he won’t understand the subject matter but he might enjoy the writing style.”
Yep. Three or four copies of The Lancet.
So your article has brought back fond memories for me. I think The Lancet has been going for something like 200 years and I’ve not looked at it online yet. I will shortly.
Your article? Powerful and cogent like Stewart says [above].
Excellent! The Lancet is an institution. I’m lucky to work with them. Although, I’m like you, the content is frequently over-my-head.
The Prem is light years away from the Division One of yesteryear. The good old days have long gone, the Prem is big Business with a capital ‘B’. It is totally enmeshed with Sky and major conglomerates thought the world, they will change it to suit the money machine. Everything else is of secondary importance, the Football League will have to fend for itself, many clubs will finish up as semi professional amateur organisations, it was already heading in that direction. Norwich v Kings Lynn, Ipswich, Peterborough? It could happen.
In the words of a police chief recently, these players need to “get a grip”. No other industry ordered back to work this week will have been as well looked after as Premier League footballers. Tested regularly, only mixing with similarly immune personnel, they really do need to realize what a privileged position they are in. As far as I can tell, the authorities are doing all they can to make it as safe as they can, not that there is much risk anyway. They need to get back to work.
Excellent piece.
Football, like so many other ‘industries’ will not be the same for quite some time, or indeed ever.
Although I don’t agree with every part of Webber’s plan – he may not even himself – but I think he has been very clever and I would do the same if I were in his position.
As far as COVID-19 goes, I visited London 5 days before lockdown to visit clients. Neither of them thought the virus would come to anything and certainly not lockdown, as I was suggesting to them. These companies weren’t small fry, they were both multi-national companies.
The revisionism by some is quite breathtaking, as though it was so obvious. Full marks to those that saw it, but the facts are the vast majority of the world did not.
As for the future of football, can a game based on huge amounts of money thrive, or even survive without less?
If the top end of the game can be downsized, it will be no bad thing. And that means the complete absurdity of players wages, which have gone into the stratosphere for just ‘being’ a footballer. Everybody has their price, but the distance between fan and player is beyond comprehension.
As appalling as COVID-19 is and its ramifications, they may be a very small silver lining once the fire burns out. Maybe the Lancet should be mandatory reading for us all?
Hi Dave
A good article and right to the point.
Leeds supporters are saying not nice things about SW and his comments yesterday and the Yorkshire Times has suggested it was a notification to the FA and powers that control the game just what could happen is any unsavoury decisions are made.
Leeds really have short memories over the last 4 seasons they have been the nearly men to get promoted with all the flags waving and each season just as the most vital period approaches they crumble like a wall with no cement(not counting Yorkshires dry stone walks).
Can they or any others in the top 6 guarantee they will still be in those positions come the end of the season NO they can’t.
It is like the bottom ten teams in the premiership any could have a really bad restart lose most of their remaining games and still get relegated, yes some are on the edge of staying up but only time and winning games for both leagues can ensure either promotion or relegation.
New idea how about a mini league top 3 championship clubs V bottom 3 premiership clubs home and away top 3 get promoted all have something to fight for so no weakened teams would be put out.