When Norwich City’s second goal went in at Leeds in February last year — the Pukki tap-in which caused a delayed reaction among our fans tucked in a corner at the other end of the pitch — I turned to seek out the face of a friend in the row behind me.
We shared a moment in which our mutual feeling of utter bliss was only heightened by the incredulity. We didn’t need to say anything. It was all in our eyes, our smiles, our shrieks of rapture.
If the madness of being a football supporter can be explained at all then it is about hankering to be part of a tribe. Only being there, being part of the shared experience properly enforces that feeling of belonging.
So I cannot come to terms with the idea that the rest of this season will play out, for my wife and me, on the television in our lounge.
What if, on August 1, Norwich City win the FA Cup at an empty, silent Wembley? What if that achievement follows the feat of finishing above the bottom three in the Premier League? It would seem hollow, unnatural … not right.
I understand entirely those who say, with fervour, that the season should have been voided, that football without fans is not football, that whatever happens now will be artificial and bogus. And they’re restarting for the money, obviously.
But then that is also true of every business contorting itself to resume as soon as permitted. To exist, they all need income. To survive, professional football needs to start earning income too. Pronto.
The impact on football of the pandemic pause has been, and will be, seismic. The landscape has been altered fundamentally.
I’ve been told that the number of EFL clubs likely to go into administration is in double figures. Below the EFL, some names will vanish forever. Lower still down the pyramid, the FA will have £100m less to spend, which will lay waste to schemes and projects few appreciate but many will miss once they’ve gone.
Above the EFL (in the Premier League) the amounts of money which comes from broadcasters means no club can contemplate not finishing the season. The EPL will have to repay more than £330m to broadcasters if it is not completed by August 2.
If the season does finish — with the two-games a night schedule now planned — it is possible that as much as half that rebate will be written off. It is possible it won’t be.
So the very best hope is that ‘only’ almost £170m has to be paid back. The plan is for the 20 clubs to share that debt, with a small subsidy by top clubs to the others. Nothing would be paid next season, but it would all have to be paid back during the following two seasons.
That means that, whichever division they are in, Norwich will have to pay between £4m and £8.5m in each of 21-22 and 22-23. So, for Norwich, relegation this summer threatens yet another period of austerity.
In the pre-pandemic world, it was possible to be relatively philosophical about the prospect of dropping into the Championship. We haven’t bet the house on staying up. We don’t have a kernel of duff players on huge wages whom we’d have to keep paying. We don’t have a structural deficit. We do have top class, paid-for facilities. We’d have parachute payments. If necessary, we could flog a player or two for top Deutschmarks.
In the post-pandemic football topography, though, the whole concept of parachute payments is under challenge from two sets of clubs.
Many EFL clubs want a “fairer” spread of the money handed out by the Premier League because all of them are in crisis. Meanwhile, EPL clubs sure of staying up have their own Covid-provoked financial scares — and would like to keep the dosh that goes towards parachute payments.
The dreadful worst-case scenario would be that City are relegated, get no parachute payments but still have to pay back a slab of Premier League TV money.
And it will be very difficult, even for an operator as astute as Stuart Webber, to flog any player for a fat fee. The richest clubs in England and in Europe will still trade megastars, but other clubs will not have as much as usual to spend. Mid-table EPL clubs will seek bargains. EFL clubs will largely withdraw from the market.
So, those of us who support the great club in the Fine City have to hope against hope that Project Restart is a success, and that Daniel Farke constructs his “little miracle”. Because if the season is not completed then Norwich will be relegated by their average points so far.
Yep, we need a Farkeing miracle. But I think that is a valid hope.
In that other universe, the one where the pandemic never happened, any optimism we could muster was founded on the fact that three of our five remaining home games were against clubs in the bottom six: Southampton, Brighton and West Ham. If we built a bit of momentum, perhaps the home fixtures against Everton and Burnley might have produced points as well.
The realist in me, though, looked at the away fixtures and could see grim, pointless odysseys to Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester City with a mere flicker of hope about visiting Watford.
Thus far City have averaged only 1.07 per game at home (and a miserable 0.4 per game away). So even our home record would have needed to improve substantially for us to improve our position by the requisite six points relative to three other strugglers. Nonetheless, with a fair wind, a couple of VAR assists and the Barclay flags waving, Carrow Road might just have launched that miracle.
But in this universe, the Bundesliga experience suggests home advantage is negated by having to play behind closed doors. Only 18.5 per cent of games have been won by the home team since the season kicked off again in Germany.
Ah, but hold on! That means that Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester City will not be such overwhelming favourites to beat Norwich at home.
And there’s another factor: will players with nothing much at stake be motivated? Will Burnley and Everton, currently 10th and 12th, care enough about where they finish in the table to give it everything? Will their players, not adequately prepared and with games coming thick and fast, strain and strive to contest possession against a Norwich team which bases its game on enterprise rather than effort?
I think passing will beat pressing in empty stadiums. In the silence of the stands, Farkeball can prosper.
Then there’s the Cup. City are two games from the Final. I know it wouldn’t be the same if we got there this year. But “the same” is not on offer. A place in history is though and wouldn’t that irk our history-obsessed neighbours?!
So let’s ask again… what if Norwich City win the FA Cup? What if that achievement follows the feat of finishing above the bottom three in the Premier League?
Come on!
Does it have to happen?
Not in my view, the risks to human life far outweigh the benefits. Liverpool win the title, Leeds get promoted = guaranteed massive parties not to mention the preceding games along the way and the large gatherings of fans at many of the fixtures.
Anyone who believes that you have to trust the fans not to do this is quite frankly living in cloud cuckoo land. As you rightly acknowledge Mick, it’s all about the money. Will you be leading the campaign for ‘Justice For The (insert number here)’ for years to come if a restart causes a spike in infections and a loss of life?
That’s a mythical risk Bob. Players who are tested twice a week offer probably less risk in terms of a covid spike than untested Joe Bloggs popping down the supermarket for a pint of milk. It’s not up to the premier league to govern what the public do at home. That’s a job for the government and police.
Mick you said it right at the beginning, it’ll seem hollow to me. I just want it over and done with, and see Norwich safe as a club still with a decent squad and management structure, what ever Division we’re in. Would be nice if they won the FA cup though.
We all feel a bit – actually, a lot – of that. But Mick’s point about the financial implications can’t be ignored.
Whatever we win or don’t win, let’s get the season ended with as little damage to health and finances as possible. Then trust Stuart Webber and Daniel Farke to continue weaving their magic.
Oh Mick;
Like myself you are the dreamer. I saw us winning the FA Cup this season, and being the only team ever to win it having won 2 matches at 90 minutes. Penalty shoot outs, and the magnificent Tim Krul did the rest.
As for the league, with empty stadia I fear any home advantage for the lesser clubs will be negated, and I guess we’ll be replaced by the Real Madrid of the north (how it pains to say that!).
I cannot believe that back in March 2 positive cases caused the immediate postponement of the season but now 12 positives mean that it’s OK to continue.
Yes, I’ve missed football, but with every day, unfortunately that miss seems less and less.
And in all honesty, I don’t know if I will ever get to see my team in yellow and green play at Carrow Road again.
Keep well and stay safe.
O T B C
I like to dream as much as the next man, Mick, but even I think the miracle of staying up followed by winning the FA cup is probably just that, a wonderful day-dream. Looking at the teams left in the cup, none of them have anything else left to play for, so while they may not go all out in league games, they probably will in the cup. As for the league, if teams are not totally committed when we play them, we might get a surprise result, but by the same token, they are just as unlikely to be trying too hard when playing our relegation rivals, so it’s all swings and roundabouts.
Good article, all the same. Thanks.
Hi Mick.
You paint a very dark picture but show a blast of light at the end of it. I have to say I agree with you at almost every turn.
“I think passing will beat pressing in empty stadiums. In the silence of the stands, Farkeball can prosper.” Yep, that is my hope too and I can see the logic in it.
Understandably there is so much uncertainty about everything just now and I was fully expecting [for what it’s worth] at least Todd, Max and Emi to leave us in the summer. But just like property, values of players can drop during a crisis.
I fervently hope we are as well equipped as most clubs for long-term survival. Perhaps dear old Delia was right all along 🙂
Bundesliga ‘lite’ is a means to an end and I’m guessing that the Premier League, plus Championship, if it actually happens, will be exactly the same. Far from perfect but minimising the contractural losses from not completing the season. I don’t like it one bit, but the alternatives, as you allude to, Mick, are a lot worse.
We have to presume that the way they’re trying to complete the season is ‘at minimum risk’, but, heaven help them if the worst should happen.
Hi Mick
An enjoyable read and day dreaming on a hot sunny day in Blackpool is about right.
A couple of weeks ago someone said after LIVARPOOL play the next to games and confirm the title they will give their U23 team a run out to complete the fixtures.
That can also be said for any club that is certain of a top 4 finish but clubs like Spurs, Arsenal, Man U, or those from 3 to 8 in the league can all still achieve that and city have to play 3 of those clubs.
Every club from 14th to 20th have something to play for whether it be relegation or a higher position for money as I presume the higher you finish the more money you will get or will that be stopped this season.
Winning the FA cup in a empty stadium will still be a great achievement and will be top of every quiz masters list of new questions.
Let’s all daydream
Onwards and upwards
OTBC
Keep safe and well
NCFC’s self-funding model and decision not spend £100M at the start of last season is starting to look particularly astute. Although we are neck-deep in the mire a massive further financial obligation at the start of the season would surely have meant curtains for the club. At least we have a chance to survive – others may not be so lucky. Hopefully enough fragments of the game will survive – or be propped up – to allow things to resume eventually. Alas, the doubts weight heavy.
Mick, just a thought. Does the £330M you refer to constitute a whole season’s payment from broadcasters, or is it pro-rata for the so-far unplaced games? Sky and BT surely can’t claim the whole season payment, as they had the benefit of customers’ payments and advertising revenue when the bulk of the season was in operation.
Jim: it’s very much a pro rata amount.
The total broadcast + commercial income to the Premier League clubs is some £2.5 billion a year. The bulk of that is television rights, UK and international (I suspect Mick would have a detailed breakdown).
The financial hit of Covid is complex – TV income obviously, but also sponsorship and other commercial stuff, before we even get to tickets & match day revenue.
Thanks Stewart. I wasn’t sure, never looked at how much money went into the PL. it’s all to mind boggling for me!
I don’t doubt any of MD’s reasoning, but for me another issue is the Premier League being completely used by the government (and its puppets in the media) to be engaged as a bred-and-circuses distraction while people continue to be infected and die. If rugby league/union and cricket clubs were as popular across England you can bet they would have been pressurised into restarting as well.
Sorry, but while all this is still going on and we have a government which is, frankly, criminally negligent, can I get enthused about City’s remaining 10+ fixtures? No.
To be honest, I just want it over. Hopefully without anyone dying.
As to the football itself, I realise no one will admit it but we haven’t a chance of either staying up or winning the FA Cup. Results will pretty much go to form on the best 11 in each game with no crowds or atmosphere to raise anyone’s game – our away performances to date have shown how we compare on that basis. We are 20th best in the league, and I’m afraid it will be the same come 1st August.
The positive part is that we will probably retain most, if not all, of our players, and will therefore have a great chance of winning the Championship again next season.