So, in theory, depending on what the TV schedule throws up, this time in three weeks I could be musing over City’s game with Southampton.
Just imagine if it’s a win I’m writing about. Just imagine.
Okay, so there’ll be no descriptions of Carrow Road reverberating when City inevitably take an early lead – this does place unnecessary pressure on Chris Goreham and Rob Butler to deliver some noise from that gantry – but I’ll hopefully still be able to describe the way that incisive passing, starting from Tim Krul, still remains a sight to behold when in full flow.
Three points from that game, with those above us dropping points, wouldn’t half be a fine way to restart. And while many, me included, are struggling to re-engage right now while the numbers of people dying daily is still in three figures, I do believe the inevitable recommencement will eventually gain traction – if only as a diversion from the horror of the last few months.
Mick’s piece yesterday was a sobering reminder of the financial consequences of not restarting, and of the cost of the pandemic in general, but it did leave us dangling at the end with the prospect of a safety/FA Cup win double.
A more pragmatic take, some would say realistic, was provided in the replies: “… we haven’t a chance of either staying up or winning the FA Cup.“
And Stephen’s voice may be the one of reason but, like it or not, the restart is going to happen and we have literally nothing to lose by tackling it head-on and with a positive mindset.
So, in this spirit, and to hopefully reinvigorate my own interest in season 2019/20, let’s look at those nine remaining league games and see if there is a way we could get close to, or even achieve, the ‘little miracle’ of which Daniel Farke speaks.
Right…
❖ Southampton (h)
Well, for starters, we owe them one. The 2-1 defeat at St Mary’s in early December was a proper blow to the go.nads because at that time Saints were, like us, bottom three dwellers. We knew a win would give us a huge fillip as we approached the December/Christmas programme but instead it was one of those days.
While after such a prolonged break, the form guide is largely meaningless, I’m very happy to lean on it here as Southampton have lost four of their last five,
Prediction: City 2 Southampton 1
❖ Everton (h)
Another example of the form table, however illogical, coming to our rescue. The Toffees haven’t won for three games and I’m not prepared for this purpose to countenance the along come Norwich theory, so surely we can make it two wins in two.
On a slightly serious note, the away win at Goodison Park should hopefully instil some belief and it’s not beyond the realms that we could sneak a single goal win out of this one.
Prediction: City 1 Everton 0
❖ Arsenal (a)
I’m very happy to ignore that worthless form table for this one – Arsenal had won three games on the bounce prior to the lockdown – but even still, it’s tough to construct an argument for a City win or even draw.
The 2-2 draw in early December was one of those nearly afternoons and I can see this one being similar, especially without that fervent backing that City always take to the Emirates.
Prediction: Arsenal 2 City 0
❖ Brighton (h)
I was tempted to copy and paste the two paragraphs from the Southampton section. Again, we owe them one due to an away day that was about as underwhelming and gut-wrenching as it gets.
In almost every way, this is a must-win, not least for the fact we desperately need to drag Brighton into the mix. We need the sphincter of Graham Potter and the Brighton fans to be twitching by this stage and a home win courtesy of a Man City type performance would be perfect. (And yes, I do realise me predicting three straight City home wins makes me appear crazy).
Prediction: City 3 Brighton 1
❖ Watford (a)
I’m tempted to use the we owe them one again but not sure it’ll work here. The pre-lockdown form guide shows they won just one in six (good) but that one was a 3-0 home win against Liverpool (bad).
On paper, this is one of those away games where we have to get something but I’m not feeling it. Of late, they’ve been one of those sides who are physically stronger and more robust than us and now with Nigel Pearson in charge, that’s going to be ramped up even more. So, sorry…
Prediction: Watford 3 City 1
❖ West Ham (h)
Hmm… am starting to wobble, especially after looking at City’s record against those little charmers from the East End, which is as bad as I expected it to be – one win in our last 12 meetings.
So, while this is a distinctly average West Ham team, they do have a horrible habit of eeking out results against City when we need them most – I’m thinking particularly that 2-0 defeat at Upton Park in the final throes of the Hughton era. Maybe we be can still nick a point from this.
Prediction: City 1 West Ham 1
❖ Chelsea (a)
A special MFW prize to anyone who can give me a logical and compelling argument for a City win here, especially with Lampard’s lot no doubt engaged in battle for that fourth Champions League place.
We gave them a good game at home in the opening weeks of the season but they simply have better players and can make hay out of City errors in a way we don’t seem able. It’s a quality thing, something that won’t be affected by an empty stadium.
Prediction: Chelsea 3 City 0
❖ Burnley (h)
If I was being logical and sensible, I’d say that Burnley fall into the Watford category. IE. A team that’s big, strong, that sets out to disrupt, press high and which simply refuses to let these fancy dan passing teams weave their pretty patterns.
But, this is no time for logic or common sense. This, if we’re still in the hunt, will be the most must-win game in the history of must-win games, and even with Sean Dyche inevitably winning the decibel battle of the technical areas, we still have better footballers.
Prediction: City 2 Burnley 0
❖ Manchester City (a)
Hmm… again. There are so many reasons why we won’t get anything here. Especially after that famous win in September. But, hopefully so much has happened since then, Pep will forget to mention it in his team-talk and they’ll still be too busy taking the p*ss out of Kyle Walker for it to register.
Obviously home advantage, as has been proven in the Bundesliga, is diluted with no fans present but there is better-player-syndrome to overcome here. However, with the title long gone and a Champions League place assured, I’m clutching a straw here and banking on City snaffling an unlikely point.
Prediction: Man City 1 City 1
So, four wins, two draws and two defeats, equating to 14 points, taking our total to 35 – a total that incidentally would have been enough to see City survive in each of the last three seasons.
Whether it would be enough this season, I have my doubts.
Maybe Stephen is right.
Sh.it!
Nine out of ten for bravery on predicting that many points.
Deep down I’m just hoping that we’re not still six points, or worse, adrift once the season is over and, knowing City like we do, wouldn’t it be typical to miss out on goal difference.
Hi Gary
An interesting take on how the season could finish.
The biggest problem for city is who Livarpool Chelsea, Arsenal and Man C field against the bottom 6.
Once LIVARPOOL have secured a title that no one is really interested in will they as speculation gathers pace an U23 team to get them experience for the 20/21 season.
Man C could have secured a top 4 finish well before city plays them and could also be in the European champions Final so again team selection could come into play.
Chelsea are a hit and miss team this season they have good runs then have bad ones, they have looked certain for a top 4 finish but keep getting pulled back in to the scramble for those places so again if they secure that place prior to the city game they could rest a few.
Arsenal my least favourite club along side LIVARPOOL and Leeds.
These will be fight Spurs, Leicester and Man U for the last top 4 position and Wolves and Sheff U for a EUFA Cup position so will possibly put out a strong team in the rest of the fixtures until one of the European places are secured.
Leicester, Spurs, Man U could possibly do city a favor or 2 and with Spurs now having a fully fit squad look at Jose will want some great results to finish the season.
All the bottom 6 have a tough task to stay up and it will come down to who can keep their players fit and injury free.
It will be an interesting conclusion to a rubbish season and for style I think LIVARPOOL deserve the title but for 19 other teams that haven’t really preformed it will not be a great title win.
Onwards and upwards
OTBC
Keep safe and well
So that’s four wins and a draw at home ! Better take them green and yellow tinted glasses off. And to think that wouldn’t probably be enough to keep us up anyway. It would just have us all thinking, if only this and if only that hadn’t happened earlier in the season. No, let’s get relegated as soon as possible so we can plan for a more productive next season in the championship !
Took more than yellow and green tinted glasses, mate. Was clutching straws, a rabbit’s foot and a four-leaf clover…. and still failed to get us enough points! ?
Even holding my dad’s lucky eagle silver dollar coin from around 1944 I couldn’t come up with more than 32 points.
The leprechaun said 33 but I told him he’d kissed the Blarney Stone once too often.
And I really must sort out those fairies at the bottom of the garden 🙂
I did my own predictions for playing it out, though not to the extent of guessing actual scores, just went for results. I also tried to see how the other relegation rivals might do, and came up with the following:-
City: 3 wins (Soton, West Ham, Brighton), 3 draws (Everton, Burnley, Watford), and 3 defeats (Arsenal, Chelsea, Man City) 12 points
Villa: 1 win (Palace), 3 draws (Arsenal, Wolves, Newcastle), 6 defeats (Chelsea, Blades, Man U, Everton, Liverpool, West Ham) 6 points
Bournemouth: 3 wins (Palace, Newcastle, Soton), 6 defeats (Leicester, Spurs, Everton, Man C, Man U, Wolves) 9 points
Watford: 3 Wins (man C, Newcastle, Soton), 2 drowse (Burnley, Norwich) 4 defeats (Arsenal, Chelsea, Leicester, West Ham) 11 points
West Ham: 3 wins (Burnley, Watford, Villa), 2 draws (Wolves, Newcastle), 4 defeats (Chelsea, Norwich, Man U, Spurs) 11 points
Brighton: 1 win (Newcastle), 3 draws (Arsenal, Liverpool, Man C), 5 defeats (Man U, Norwich, Soton, Burnley, Leicester) 6 points
which leaves the bottom three:
Brighton 35 points
Norwich 33 points
Villa 31 points
so we’re still for the drop. Hey Hoe, it’ll just have to be the Cup then! (though looking at the teams left in, I don’t see much joy there either)
If we don’t get points from those first 4 games it will be interesting to see if Farke cuts his losses and starts giving one or two fringe players a run.
The biggest risk for us is being relegated and then having to start a 46-game Championship season almost immediately. That of course is the underlying reason that Webber would find it intolerable for clubs from the Championship to replace us if they don’t play the full season. We and two others would have played at least 9 games in 6 weeks and then be faced with 21 teams who were completely fresh and had a proper pre-season.
That may happen between the Championship and League One if the latter votes to end the season. I’m sure that’s why Hull City, one place above the relegation zone, would rather like the Championship not to resume.
If nothing else, it’s great to be actually talking about real football again.
I’ve always felt that we still had a real chance to survive but when you look at Gary’s predictions, we still can only muster 35 points, it shows the task we have before us.
When I did my predictions, I only come up with 34!
However, there a couple of things that could be in our favour, The Bundesliga has shown that home advantage is less now so perhaps those away fixtures may not be quite as daunting (although I accept the reverse is true as well) but also, and perhaps more importantly, teams with better footballers are getting better results. If we are good as we think/hope we are, that should help.
I, for one, am looking forward to finding out.
Delighted as I am to be your inspiration Gary, I’m not sure I’m that comfortable with the mega-negative label. However, the stats to date suggest that home advantage is negated without crowds so I don’t really see where your optimism of 4 wins and a draw comes from – especially as, in particular, Southampton already have one of the best away records in the division.
So, for what it’s worth I think a draw against them, Watford and West Ham and wins against Brighton and Burnley will take us to 30 points. Still firmly bottom I’m afraid. And I really can’t see us getting past Man Utd in the Cup if Rashford is playing – I think he has already shown up as our newest version of Luis Suarez……
Wow Gary; that really is a hopeful punt.
Whilst I love the logic, the one thing that Bundesliga Lite has proven, is that home advantage with no fans equals no advantage whatsoever.
What is certain though is that those clubs with better players will still have those better players so I cannot see us getting anything from Arsenal, Man Citeh or Chelski.
In all honesty no more than 9 points at home, and I fear the regular diddly squat away…..
LiVARpool will seal the title, and then I suspect play youngsters/weakened teams, so Villa, Brighton and Burnley could well benefit from that. If it happens, it will not help us at all, and once again brings into question the integrity of the EPL and the whole restart thing.
One hopes that given the finances (or lack thereof), even with relegation we may keep some of our better young players.
O T B C
Thanks for your comments folks – always appreciated – and am honoured that most of you have taken this piece far more seriously than I did.
Do I really, in my heart of hearts, think we’ll win four league games? Of course not – it defies logic – but a guy can dream, right?
Thanks again.
G
I’ve learned from bitter experience that I’m hopeless at predicting a run-in game-by-game.
The good news is I’m sometimes wrong in the right direction (as it were). We could lose at home at Everton but win at Arsenal.
Of course it’s an optimistic take, Gary. But one thing for sure: should we win two of the first three, it’s game on. I don’t think Farke or his players have given up just yet.
I went one more and had five wins , with victory at Watford