So, the players return to training tomorrow, just three weeks and a day from the guns falling silent on our Premier League experiment of 2019/20.
Weird times.
That gives Team Farke 26 days to lick this sorry bunch into shape and get their bodies and, more importantly, minds ready for a Championship campaign that promises to be even more brutal than normal.
‘Saturday-Wednesday-Saturday’ is a phrase often used to describe the incessant nature of an EFL campaign but this season there will be even more midweek games given how concertinaed it has to be.
If normally, the Championship is a marathon, not a sprint, this time around it’s an ultramarathon across the Gobi Desert.
It’ll not be for faint hearts.
As it’s starting six weeks later than usual, there will be 13 midweek rounds and will conclude with the play-off final at Wembley on May 31.
(Put it in the diary?).
We’ll know more this Friday (21st) when the fixtures are released (9am).
Rightly or wrongly, City have been installed by most bookies as third-favourites for promotion, behind Watford and Brentford, with odds as short as 5/2. At this early stage I suspect these have been governed by odds compilers rather than by the volume and value of bets – IE. Based purely on stats.
For me, that ignores the Premier League hangover, which we know from experience can be brutal.
But how have City managed said pounding head and feeling of nausea in the 21st century? Has Alka-Seltzer and a full English been enough to clear the head and mind for an assault on promotion from the Championship?
2005-06
I remember this one vividly. Still full of hope despite that most Norwich City of wallopings at Craven Cottage on the final day of 2004-05, when a win that would have kept us up was somehow turned into a 6-0 defeat.
Still we clapped, even if we weren’t sure what the hell we were clapping. (I just know it wasn’t Damian Francis).
But, despite having a team that included Hucks and Dean Ashton, Worthy was unable to lift them much beyond mid-table mediocrity and the football was equally mediocre. Three draws in the three opening games, all at home, set the tone I’m afraid.
When Dean Ashton departed for the bright lights of the East End in January – to be replaced at the eleventh hour by Robert Earnshaw – the natives were already getting restless.
We finished 9th, 13 points off the play-offs.
Verdict: $hit.
2014-15
Neil Adams was holding the reins by the time the drop was confirmed although, to be fair, Chris Hughton did most of the heavy lifting. And so it was “Neyul” who was tasked with moulding the group into one fit for promotion.
The squad was given a refresh of sorts in the summer but if I tell you we lost Anthony Pilkington, Robert Snodgrass and Leroy Fer and replaced then with, among others, Carlos Cuellar, Ignasi Miquel and Tony Andreu, you’ll get the gist.
There were some useful additions too, including Lewis Grabban and Cameron Jerome, but it was the lot who remained who were the problem, with a rotten stench of Premier League entitlement stinking the place out for the first two thirds of the season.
Despite briefly looking the part, Adams’ inability to handle and manage such a stroppy bunch eventually saw him fall on his sword in the January, and it was north of the border that David McNally headed to find a replacement.
The Alex Neil effect was almost instant and despite just missing out on automatic promotion, he and Frankie McAvoy took us on the journey of a lifetime via a two-legged playoff semifinal win over our nearest and dearest and a win over Boro in the Wembley sunshine.
Verdict: BOOM!
2016-17
And we were back before we’d hardly arrived.
(Sounds familiar).
Alex Neil’s stocked remained high despite a typically underwhelming Premier League survival effort and two defeats in the opening 13 league games of 2016-17 suggested he’d found a successful hangover cure.
He hadn’t.
A run of eight defeats in the ten games that followed was a sign that all was not well, and bit-by-bit it all began to unravel, the Yellow Army increasingly losing faith in the man who had delivered us Wembley.
With ten games of the season left and with the playoffs out of reach, the trigger was pulled and Alan Irvine appointed as temporary manager.
Despite a decent run-in, we still finished two places and ten points shy of the play-offs… another underwhelming response to relegation, armed with a squad that was good enough to do better.
Verdict: A bit $hit
The moral of the story is… well, there isn’t one really, other than to say there is no fast-track back to the Premier League, if indeed the Premier League is your detination of choice.
Even a squad that is not quite good enough to stay in the PL can struggle to adapt to life in the Championship, let alone one that crashed and burned, breaking records aplenty along the way, so there is one almighty battle ahead.
To underestimate the size of it would be madness.
That Villa, Leeds and West Brom are not our rivals this season has to be a good thing, but Watford will tinker and scheme as Watford do and Brentford, despite losing some of their best players, will do what Brentford do and replace them with more good players.
Both will be up there but so too will some well-funded, big clubs who see the PL as their rightful place in the footballing pecking order.
That Daniel Farke and Stuart Webber are back on familiar ground, on which they have experienced success, is a good thing but this time it comes with expectation and therefore added pressure.
I’m slightly less sceptical than I was three ago, but I still maintain there is still a sizeable mountain to be climbed and much depends on what Lady Luck has in store for us.
We’re due some aren’t we?
I never understand why the three relegated clubs are nearly always among the bookies favourites for an immediate return, especially when, typically, it’s been a while (Norwich in fact) that a team has returned immediately.
Maybe those pesky parachute payments that the non-recipients moan so much about, aren’t as beneficial as they’d have you believe.
Its common for at least one of the 3 relegated teams to at least make the play offs so they are probably hedging their bets by making them the favourites. However, the Champions are rarely a relegated team, this seems to go to mid-table teams like us and Wolves or play off losers like Leeds more often than the like of Newcastle a few years ago.
John beat me to this. Yes 1/3 is the approx number and much better odds than 2 (remaining places) in 21 (non promoted teams).
Of course that’s only an immediate bounce back. The odds of being promoted back increase when you look at the full length of payments.
For example I believe you missed out West Brom as a team that was promoted recently within the 3 years. I think Villa too. Of course Burnley and ourselves in recent years bounced straight back.
I just found an article (a couple of years old) that showed 28% of teams immediately bounce back. Again, much higher chance of promotion than non relegated teams.
another decent read with my coffee Mr G. Brief look back over the seasons past. I can almost hear the chains of Jacob Marley clanging .
If I am being perfectly honest, I would rather we had a season of solid building of the squad and mindsets, rather than trying to rush a group that’s is still hurting and bewildered with a premier headache, sprinkled with a few new faces; yet to adapt to the Farke style.
“20 odd days does not seem much time to adapt and change to a new way, as Farke wants to implement. Plus the hard work spent on certain players who possibly have one eye on their mobile, with the agents number on speed dial. All a little bit rushed.
Not being a kill joy or dampening expectations, but I think we may just scrape into play-offs or be very close. Auto promotion would be a bridge too far for much of the squad, we supporters have just survived seeing a squad unprepared, Another season of the parachute, crowds let back in, plus perhaps the final selling of anyone who wants away at the end of the season. By then a better idea of what is needed would be known.
But I know only too well if a chance is there you have to take it, nothing in this league can go to plan. Every which way you look at it, it is a gamble,…. so make … right turn Clyde
As another season approaches I begin by thinking my glass is half full but i’m sure that the majority of fans of every Championship club feels the same. Should we be amongst the favourites for promotion? Yes, I think we ought to be given the potential of the squad of players we have today. Of course our squad may look totally different when the transfer window closes in October.
My concern is about the mental scars on the players of the capitulation after Project Restart. We don’t understand why it happened. My own theory is that they had a long time to stew on the position they were in and they saw no way out of that position. They will have no time in the coming season as there is so little time between games.
I think we have some leaders in Zimbo and Hanley, who will get in the ears of the players. I think it will be crucial how Farke manages the squad so there is no disruption from those not playing.
The first half a dozen games will tell us a lot about how the season will go.
Stay safe.
Actually I can remember two even $hittier relegations than those Gary’s quite rightly mentioned.
We win the Milk Cup at Wembley in 1985. Coventry end up with four games in hand on us, win the lot, and we’re down. Their final fixture? Everton who’d wrapped up the old Division One title a fortnight before and were wearing flip-flops and snorkels.
Then 10 years later I think we were seventh in December in the PL but couldn’t buy a win thereafter although a 3-1 win over the Binners looked like we’d surely done enough.
Off to dirty Leeds, 1-0 up then a Whites’ goal and a dodgy penalty in the last 10 minutes contrived to send us down. The Chase firesale that followed [Newsome, Ward and others] took a whole decade to recover from.
To me those two will remain the $hittiest of the $hitty.
Martin, Coventry were not only wearing their flip-flops and snorkels, they had actually been away to celebrate their title win. I remember that Everton – Coventry game, I was sailing on Hickling broad, and every time I passed the club house, my wife called out “Coventry have scored again”. I think they got four, and while I don’t blame Coventry at all, I’ve carried a grudge against the Toffees ever since. As a result of that, though, the league instituted the rule that everyone has to play their last game on the same day, kicking off at the same time, so we have the consolation (ha!) of a small place in history.
It’s tricky to get back up straightaway. I remember Adams had a cracking start but – as we all know – the league isn’t won in October. January to April is the time to build winning momentum. Alex Neil did particularly well at that.
Also high turnover of playing staff between seasons is always a risk, even if it ends up a benefit.
I remember the Lambert promotion season. I looked at the League table after about 32 and compared it to the one after 16 matches and it was very different. BUT the table for the form between match 17 to 32 was almost identical to the actual table. My point being that the matches over the Winter actually do seem to be more important than the ones at the start. However, I wouldn’t be keen to see us have a slow start!
I notice that Bournemouth aren’t among the bookies’ favourites, and don’t rate a mention from you, Gary. They have lost three of their best so far, Aki, Fraser, and Ramsdale, and possibly more to go, along with the manager. Their position might depend on their ability to replace their stars, and how they are treated under the FFP rules that they broke when they got promoted.
As far as we are concerned, Lewis is bound to be disappointed (and probably angry with Liverpool, rather than us), but may end up as Chilwell’s replacement at Leicester, and some of the other young stars may also be on their way. We have, however, been recruiting some (hopefully) adequate replacements, so they may freshen up the squad enough to get us going again.
All in all, we have to remain optimistic in our efforts to seize the title of yo-yo club away from the Baggies.
Onwards and upwards (for a time, anyway)!
Imagine Sir Edmund Hilary and Sherpa Tensing, they have done base camp moved up to camp 1 and have been training for camp 2. Things have gone well, better than expected and maybe just maybe the summit is possible. “Do you think the team is ready”? asked Hilary of Tensing.
“ No boss was the answer I need a couple of more experienced lads to make that happen”
“Well let’s give it a go and see how we get on shall we.”
The rarified air took its toll on the summit team and lack of experience and toughness meant they had to turn back from the Hilary step. They got down safely, beaten and humble.
Hilary spoke to the team “Are you ready to give it another go, I’m going to make some changes to the personnel but by god we will have a team capable of making the summit next time. To those of you who don’t come on the next attempt, your efforts will not be forgotten, thank you, it wouldn’t have been possible without you.”
New faces where drafted in ready for the new ascent. They set off soon to scale Everest. It will be tough, but Hilary and Tensing know so much more this time. We should know if they got over the Hilary step and reached the summit next year in the late spring.
I remember all those seasons you mention, & many more before that
My glass is half full atm
Not sure, after such a losing run we can get enough players mentally ready to win matches again
We also appeared to lack basic fitness after the lock down – along with our never ending injuries, something appears not right within the Coaching in that area
Transfers so far are fairly unknown players we are signing up at a low/no cost – it maybe great scouting, but I have my doubts to be honest
It appears we are now really going for the – buy young players cheap, and then sell the few that make it as high as possible (maybe the self financing Club model we are)
Are we lucky with all our young players atm? – sell them quick to make cash? – can they do it again in the Championship? – I’m not sure they are all worth £20m+
The first 6 matches may well decided if my glass remains half full or half empty – the froth on my lovely pint of Fat Cat ale is bubbling …
The brief break between seasons is a bit of a worry along with our form post lockdown. We actually appear to be starting the season on 29th August but this Cup match could be seen as part of the pre-season schedule. Talking of which we should be seeing some matches being arranged and played. We have this midweek, next weekend, the following midweek and then it is Carabao Cup and International break for many of our players. Is that time to get things moving? I suspect we have a schedule of matches but this has not been published as yet. I think we have a good squad but will they gel? Has their morale been damaged? In my lifetime, no club has been more successful at bouncing back at the first attempt (1974, 1981, 1985 and 2015). However, the bad years were 1995 where we probably over estimated the quality of our squad and under estimated the damage to the morale of the end of season slump (a current concern). In 2005, we seemed to suffer from offloading the likes of Gary Holt, Edworthy and Svennson more than anything else and also played down the significance of the awful start. I remember Roger Munby saying after 6 matches that it was similar to the promotion winning year, it wasn’t, we had 10 points from the first 6 matches in that promotion year but only 3 from 6 in 2005 and the writing was already on the wall. In 2016, we were fantastic at home but a bit powder puff away from home, I have vivid memories of the team capable of demolishing Forest and Reading being beaten by Rotherham and Burton. I think we have a major task ahead of us but I have faith in Farke and maybe he will repeat the double promotion of Ken Brown rather than being another Alec Neil or Nigel Worthington
I still have nightmares about the ‘it could have been us’ 1995/96 season when it was Leicester, rather than us, whom O’Neill took firstly to the Premier League and secondly to several cup finals.
The squad we had could and should have been more than good enough for a swift and speedy return.
Sadly, the return of Megson saw a decent 2nd place (at the time of O’Neill’s departure) turn into something appalling like a 17th placed finish.
At least it brought us the end of Chase….
Verdict? Very sh*t but with a tasty cherry on top
In 2014/15 didn’t Tony Andreu arrive in the January window just after Alex Neil?
Yes, you’re quite right, MGW. Oops. Thanks.
Sshh – no-one else has spotted it 🙂
Look on the bright side. We won’t have to play Fulham.