There’s a question.
So, how do you get promoted?
The best guide to the future is always the past; so, as Norwich City have been promoted to the Premier League four times, if we explore what went well on those occasions, we’ll have a better idea of what might work again.
But first we need to explore the context. Here’s a record on Norwich’s performance in the second tier over the past 25 years…
Mmm. ‘A bit up and down’ doesn’t quite do it justice somehow. ‘Roller coaster’ is a cliche; ‘frog with hiccups’ is just… well, a bit weird; so let’s just stick with ‘inconsistent’.
However the overall trend – apart from the middle five years ending in (cough) League One – does seem to be heading upwards.
I’d put that resurgence at least partly down to the young NCFC fans and fan organisations (you know who you are) who have added all sorts of energy and joy to match days and elsewhere. And we hope soon to have the platform for them to return to Carrow Road and continue to make matchdays the events they deserve to be.
Well done to everyone involved. You do make a massive difference.
But there’s also the other main elements; the manager, the team, and – most importantly – the results.
Let’s look at City’s five promotion seasons in the last 25 years.
NB. The chart covers promotions to the Premier League only. The data includes league matches and play-offs (where applicable) but does not include any cup games.
Nigel Worthington got us promoted as champions in 2003/04. Paul Lambert gained automatic promotion finishing second in 2010/11. Neil Adams kicked off the 2014/15 season but selflessly handed the reins over to Alex Neil halfway through who finished third and took us into the Premier League via the play-offs.
And in 2018/19 Daniel ‘Diamond’ Farke achieved a North Rhine-Westphalian miracle by topping the Championship and sending us hurtling into the money-munching maelstrom of the Spiffy League once again.
Our gratitude to you all.
But what did they do to make it happen?
Alex Neil had the best win percentage triumphing in 68.0% of games played. He equalled that distinction by losing the fewest too: only 12.0%.
Daniel Farke came out top in most goals scored per game at 2.02. But Alex Neil again won again when it came to being miserly in defence, conceding only 0.84 goals a game.
Comparing these best figures with the rest, which were also good enough for promotion, the stats do seem to suggest there is a sure-fire level of performance to ensure success. Those Four Golden Rules are:
- Win at least three games out of every five
- Lose no more than one in five
- Score two goals on average every game
- Concede less than one goal every game
Achieving these four rules will undoubtedly ensure promotion.
Now for the easy bit… How do you actually do that?
Mmm.
Erm, perhaps I can… er… get back to you… in May?
Good luck everybody.
OTBC
Very enjoyable article Chris, but as we know, there are lies, damned lies, and statistics. I think you need to do an analysis on all the other teams who have been promoted in the same time frame, to be completely clear on what it takes. (Good luck with that!)
I think the basic premise is the same now as always, do better than all the other teams in the league!
Agreed Jim. You’re right, of course, but the hours it took to put that little lot together was plenty enough for me (phew). And your last sentence more or less summarises it all quite nicely anyway! Best wishes.
The common themes for me are:
A dose of luck at crucial times
Confident players
Never give up attitude
Managing the squad, particularly those not playing
A goalie the defence have confidence in
A striker(s) who will get over 20 goals
A midfielder with lots of energy
Pacy and or tricky wingers to provide chances
Another dose of luck
Agree with all 9, Colin B. Let’s hope it’s a good season all round with plenty of joy in it. Already missing the chance to see some pre-season friendlies.
Hi Chris and a very interesting article. I especially liked your comment – ‘money munching maelstorm of the Premier League’
IMO, we really need to focus on conceding fewer/less goals and hopefully if our CBs get crocked by opposing players less often, then we may just achieve that aim. I’d love to see us sign Wilson is it from Burnleyto plug that gap?
I’m also hoping that it won’t be too many months before CR can be packed out once again, but in reality, I guess it won’t be before we see Father Xmas off on his sleigh this year. 🙁
It is Gibson from Burnley. Will we be prepared to pay his wages, which I assume are quite high given he has been in an England squad.
Hi Chris
I must say that I agree with both Jim and Colin.
As for Colin’s list I would add:
We do have that confidence inspiring keeper as in Tim Krul
Hernandez and Placheta could just be those tricky wingers
Skipp and Sorensen could just provide the required midfield energy.
And we need a further dose of luck
And one more dose, for luck 🙂
Very entertaining.
Thanks Martin. All good stuff, thanks. We missed a few doses last season, so we should be due a couple of doses this year. (Please don’t take that remark out of context!)
You deserve a clap for that comment 🙂
Thanks Ed. I found it interesting how few goals Worthy & Alex conceded compared to Lambert and Farke (although the Lambert and Farke promotion football was very entertaining to watch). I agree about tightening up at the back. That is the obvious priority – certainly over buying another five midfielders (so far)!
Hi Chris
A very interesting and good read.
All promotions are as been said a combination of luck, luck and even more luck.
LUCK 1
Injuries were cities biggest down fall last season, with no luck in the loan market as none really showed they were worth the money paid out for them.
LUCK 2
We have now paid out according to the London papers over a £1m for a 19 year old from Spurs plus all his wages, and are now in negotiations with Villareal and Burnley for 2 other loans and one has a buy clause if promoted.
LUCK 3
We need to hit the ground running and no hangover from an absolute crap season for results, playing pretty football wins you admirers but not points on the board.
Farke knows how to win in this league so can he reproduce a winning team for the second time, mould all the new players into a cohesive unit and most of all can Webber get replacements in for any last minute departures.
City have have little interest so far in the Fab5 except LIVARPOOL trying it on and there will be a few more clubs doing the same to try and unsettle said players.
Another tactic could be late approaches to knock the fees down Webber myst at all cost stand by his statement and not be pressured by the board to sell just to get money in.
Until the full transfer window closes after the 2 weeks of domestic transfers then predicting the out come of the season will be impossible and the last 2 weeks will see clubs fortunes and Hope’s for the season made or broken.
Onwards and upwards
OTBC
Stay safe and stay healthy
Cheers Alex B. Luck will be essential, plus the momentum it can help create. Fingers crossed.
Injuries to key players is the big unknown- in all our recent promotions we had a settled team and Lady Luck kept them fit
Yep agreed, Seamus. Keeping the squad nucleus fit is essential, even better if everyone else stays fit too.
Well the rebuild carries on
Loans in and Out for the season
Heise to Karlsruhe
Thompson to MK Dons
Quantilla in from Villarreal
Skipp in from Spurs
Frizpatrick to QoS
Just hope that we get at least 1 CB in
Yes, luck willp[lay a part…..as will the premise that if we sign EVERYBODY (as we seem to be doing) then there’s no one left for the others!!!
I guess having a completely new team means that they won’t have to get over the ignominy and confidence loss of 10 (yes; that’s ten) consecutive defeats!!
O T B C
Hi Chris. Loving the stats.
Having been a long term player, albeit not recently (kids tsk) of championship (latterly football) manager, I’m starting to get a bit worried about the sheer volume of new players coming in and whether they will ‘gel’ in time – or are we resetting back to season one of Farkeball…. if we don’t gel quickly, the first part of the season will be gone and with it all those points. Here’s hoping not.
The worst part of your first table, was looking at the six seasons after 1994/95, where I thought we’d bounce back and how dreadful they were. We wasted so many good players.
For me it was; Yr11-13 plus my 3 years (in Norwich) at uni watching that dross.
Thank goodness for Worthy and something to actually cheer about!
Thanks Martin McB. Once Martin O’Neill left in 1995 (after a disagreement with chairman Roberts Chase) things just went downhill. It was a terrible time when our conception of ourselves as a club changed from being a regular threat in the top division to being nailed-on also-rans in the second. Worthy was the best of a very bad job of managers, each worse than the last. To be fair to Worthy, his record isn’t that bad. He didn’t spend much, he increased crowds from 16,000 to 25,000 (where they’ve stayed ever since – plus a thousand or two), and he even got us into the Prem for a year. When you look at it like that, he was certainly a success within the restrictions he was working under, and you can see why he was very popular with Delia.
The irony with some City fans is that they want to get promoted into a league they turn don’t want to stay in.
Square that circle.
Interest facts, that’s for sure.
How about taking it a step further?
% of PL income spent on transfer budgets to try and stay there.
We know against other PL teams where we will be!
But the budget each manager was given, would be interesting, my bet is the DF budget must be the lowest as it was almost zero.