Expectations this year are sky-high at Carrow Road.
In the close season, the list of exciting incoming signings hit double figures and outgoings were kept to a reasonable minimum. The new season has kicked off, the firework rocket has been lit and we’ve all retired to a safe distance.
How’s it gone so far? Well, we can see a weak glow somewhere in the gloom and hear a little fizzling in the drizzle but, as yet, no lift off.
So, are Daniel Farke and Stuart Webber under pressure at Norwich?
No.
Very much not. And here’s why…
£210m.
That’s why.
Since Farke and Webber began their fruitful partnership at City in the summer of 2017 they have generated over £106m through player sales and spent just £35m on incomings. That’s a transfer surplus of £71m in just over three seasons. Very good business. Very good business indeed.
In addition, expected TV income for a successful club in the Championship is around £9m a year. Assuming Norwich had not been promoted to the Premier League in 2019 they would have earned barely £35m for the period 2017/18 – 2021/22.
But they were promoted (in an extraordinarily unexpected and wonderful season) and the TV windfall from that, including planned parachute payments up to next season, roughly totals £180m. With their unexpected promotion Webber and Farke have already generated an additional TV income bonus of over £140m for the club over and above expected Championship levels. (These figures may be affected by COVID-19, but we’ll have to wait and see how that one pans out.)
If we add the unexpected transfer surplus of £71m to the unexpected extra TV money of £140m, the Webber & Farke magic show has dumped more than £210m extra over what was expected into the NCFC coffers during this period. That works out at a bonus £1.5m a week. Every week. For three years. An extraordinary achievement!
Just on that basis alone Farke is almost an immovable object. Short of City being bottom in March there is no way the club will jettison him. And rightly so. In fact with his record he is more likely to be lured elsewhere, probably by someone with the smell of the Black Forest in their nostrils. We should be grateful he’s still here.
But money isn’t the whole story. Let’s look at the environment and habitat Farke’s had to cope with since arriving. In mid-2017 the club was wallowing mid-table in the Championship and teetering on the brink of administration. ‘What to do… what to do…?’
Well, this is what he did (had to do, more accurately): He sold a stack of players. A whole teetering stack of them – I don’t need to tell you who – and for a great deal of money.
In addition to those sumptuously paid-for departures, there were those experienced senior professionals and first team squad mainstays who, for various unavoidable reasons, were released or left on a free: eg. Sebastien Bassong, Ryan Bennett, Youssouf Mulumbu, John Ruddy, Wes Hoolahan, Russell Martin, Ivo Pinto, Yanik Wildschut, Ben Marshall, and (*cough*, mutters something under breath) Steven Naismith.
In addition to permanent squad losses there were the temporary losses, injuries to key personnel at key times: eg. Timm Klose, Marco Stiepermann, Christoph Zimmermann, Grant Hanley, Onel Hernandez, Sam Byram, Kieren Dowell.
In this context, the DF/SW achievements become ever more remarkable.
So, despite the season which shall not speak its name (2019/20, there I did it, dammit), Webber and Farke’s record is almost unbeatable. In any real universe.
Even the occasional whispers of a less-than-impressive ‘New Recruit = Success Story’ situation, it is still only whistling in the wind against the Webber/Farke whirlwind of wonder. As fans we should be happy, we should be grateful, we should enjoy the ride.
This season is unlikely to match the colourful coruscating coronation of 2018/19, but as this team beds in and performances solidify and results improve I expect City to evolve into a real force and finish comfortably mid-table to play-offs. If not better.
Things are looking good.
But most of all we should remember the two most important things. These two.
Stuart.
Daniel.
Thanks guys.
OTBC
NB. Figures are estimated. Data compiled from Norwich City’s official annual accounts, Tranfermarkt, Wikipedia, and elsewhere on the internet.
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PATREON
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Gary
Excellent piece.
There would be many who would cite your comments as clear evidence of Norwich being a selling club with a lack of ambition, but the truth is, for the size of club, we must be the most successful business £ for £ in the whole of the English footballing structure. You are absolutely spot on and long may it continue, I am sure all the other clubs must cast an envious eye over how our club is run. We are a very successful business . If by chance we were able to gain promotion again this season it would be another Webber / Farke miracle OTBC
Shocking comments unless you are a board member, Its whats on the pitch that supporters want to watch, not the bank balance .
Webber and Farke its time to go our separate ways , the poor football speaks for its self, lack of goals creativity and poor in defence
That is why most football fans re total dullards who couldn’t run a P***up in a brewery. Mr G, take a look at our nearest and dearest and see how bad it could be.
Irony at it’s best … I hope!”
Disagree. Having a healthy financial position enables us to exist whilst others are teetering on the edge of oblivion. And in the process we have also had an incredible journey with Webber and Farke. Last season was horrible and this not much better to date but at least we have a football club that can delight, frustrate, anger and inspire in equal measure, and be sure that it will be around next year and the year after to enjoy similar emotions year on year. Keep things in perspective.
What is your Plan B Mr G?
Can’t believe this comment got 24 likes.
Every time I see a comment about how Webber and Farke haven’t got it right, I think about the article on Turnstile Blues in March 2018 about how it feels to be an Ipswich supporter under Marcus Evans regime, and I realise how well off we really are, and how lucky to have this pair in control. Yes, they make mistakes, but the overall benefits far outweigh the negatives. The longer they’re here, the better. If you’re not sure what I’m talking about, see http://turnstileblues.co.uk/blog.aspx?nid=1112
Glad your happy with a mid table position ! The club had 5 gems and the chance to build a team around them instead they made the most pathetic attempt to stay in the premier league and will now lose all 5 players and go back to mid table championship football at best., but don’t worry we’ve made millions !
There will always people who will accuse you of being a happy clapper, but this shows how successfully they have turned the club round financially. If DF and SW ever want anyone to do a Powerpoint presentation to show off their achievements they should contact Chris Sadler. I think we should be higher than mid table to play-offs (more like play-offs to automatics) but agreed with pretty much everything in the article.
I agree that DF and SW are not under pressure at the moment. However, in normal times another 2 or 3 bad results would probably increase the toxicity of the atmosphere at CR and put pressure on the hierarchy to act quickly. The absence of fans is likely to allow club owners to make more considered, patient decisions-not at Nottingham Forest, obviously.
I heard Waterfall by Stone Roses on the radio this morning and the emotions of the 2018/19 season came flooding back. You never know when you’re living in the good old days!
Close to the best debut album of all time. She Bangs the Drum [not referencing Delia, although regrettably she does bang the drum at Carrow Road of course] is particularly awesome.
I never got to see the Roses live but I wish I had.
Hi Chris
I haven’t changed my mind in the time Webber & Farke have been here. I’m still fully prepared to back them under the circumstances in which they have to operate.
They’re trying to build a house on quicksand in many ways and have made a damn good fist of it so far. They have never had an easy pre-season and maybe this time around has been the worst of all for them. They know the brief from the Board [which as everyone knows I heartily disapprove of] but continue to do the best they can with such resources as they have.
I’m sure both feel it is a challenge that some wouldn’t care to take on. The day they [inevitably] walk away will be a sad one for NCFC.
Check out Jim’s link [above] as it worth the effort.
A very good read indeed.
Hi Chris
A very good article and in many ways I agree with you and would hope that the Smith’s are in overtime trying to convince Webber to stay longer than his agreed contract.
But on the down side we have had a terrible year compounded with a pandemic that just doesn’t seem to be curable and now we have an American ownership of two clubs trying to take over football ably helped by a LIVARPOOL supporting EFL chairman who also spawned the Premiership in Parry my only amazement is that Kronke is Arse-nal isnt front and centre with them.
City have as you say been a very successful business since Webber arrived helped by his 2 sidekicks that are running the club in his wife and the financial director and this must really cut deep with the Smith’s.
Long term what next will the Smiths look for investment that might prolong Webbers stay or revert to a pre Webber status.
Only time will tell
Onwards and upwards
OTBC
Stay safe and stay healthy
It never ceases to amaze me that so many people who despise the impact of money in modern football and espouse the homespun set up at Norwich city salivate at the monumental amount of cash brought into the club by way of the transfer market in recent seasons.
You needn’t worry, farke and Webber are safe. Judgment on their performance in the corridors of power is focussed purely on the amounts they bring in through the sale of assets on an i district scale. The football equivalent of a stud farm.
Those of us who have a more traditional idea of football might point to the last 20 or more results and shite performances and respectfully request a little more emphasis on the here and now and a bit less focus on lending teenagers to Benelux.
Good article Chris.
Chris are you serious you really need to get your head out of farkes a$$e the bloke is a rookie youth team manager get real the season in the premier confirmed and his inability to change goodbye .
Unfortunately Chris those numbers don’t add up.
Webber has been fantastic at selling players already at the club. I’d guess 95% (or higher) of the revenue of the transfers out were for players already signed by other managers. Consider this, if Webber and Farke left today and another manager sold all Adam Idah for big money, would you attribute the success to the new manager, or Webber and Farke?
Selling assets you inherit does not a good business make (see Donald Trump).
I’m not saying Daniel or Stuart are without credit here. But purely on math, it takes some mental gymnastics to put players Stuart didn’t buy and players Stuart did buy in the same sentence and imply there is a successful revenue stream here.
The truth is, after three years, the money Webber has spent on players has gone almost entirely unrecouped. Our model is meant to be ‘buy young and hungry, sell for big profits’. But that hasn’t happened with Webber signings. No one has come knocking for them. None. Not even Buendia (although I’m sure he’ll leave soon enough).
Let’s all be honest, the only business model we have is being in the PL. It’s the only plan that’s ever worked for any regime . Any time we’re not in the PL countdown starts until another financial meltdown.
Good point David. Webber was hugely critical of David mcnallys time in the chair. He hasn’t been shy of taking a lot of the credit for,the enormous amounts gleaned from the sales of Maddison, Godfrey, Lewis et al.. All recruited during the McNally era.
Some due credit or an acknowledgment would have been pertinent.
Thick Norwich supporters who can’t see what’s going on and a club who only see money in the bank signs, do you think this club has ambition well stop lieing to yourself cauce the answer is No oh and look at all the silverware Ipswich has more, farke has no system other than a 1-9-1, how many times have you seen pukki running around like a headless chicken I rest my case
Sums up NCFC business plan, A,B & C.
Bring in young cheap players, send out on loan. Hope a few make the first team, then sell for millions.
Everyone is happy at the club……except the fans.
Fact is the players sales made for millions are for players who were in the club, before DF & SW.
Think perhaps Neil Adams deserve more praise for spotting Madders, Murphy twins etc.
Sorry Ken, but I think you’ll fiund that Maddison was bought when alex Neil was manager. Godfrey was also recruited at the some time as was a ‘donkey’ by the name of Niasmith (a VERY expensive donkey I might add!!) Possibky something to do with ‘smith’ being part of his surname.
I’m sure ALL NCFC fans want to see a massive improvement in our playing style and shots that actually force the opposing GK to have to make a save and I’m hopeful that we may see Hugill promoted to the starting 11, rather than coming as a sub for the last 10 minutes or so.
At least after Friday, DF will know which players he has to select from and sone of our injured players will be nearing full fitness.
Well done mate I don’t understand the loans either, can someone explain the sean raggett mess we bought him in with a great reputation loaned him out where he’s played out of his skin then never gave him a chance here and played klose the squid instead we buy huggill but give him 10mins and every player we sign from westham is jinxed and grant Hanley has been missi g since He got pregnant, perhaps the board arnt the only ones pulling a fast one,???
I think many will swap that figure for a place in the Premier League. Even though current proposals will see it reduced to 18 teams. I see playing off against Championship teams a better proposition.
The amount of money will not compensate for the season we have just had. Promised so much with that promotion to be dined on scraps and such a miserable demise.
I believe in you reap what you sow and Ebenezer Scrooge has certainly had and still has a role to play.
What will we be served at Christmas? Relegation battle at this rate and no £250 million is going to suffice in League One with no teams to play.
I feel the OP has forgotten we are in the middle of a pandemic getting worse. How many clubs are going to survive asking their fans to clean up their mess before they leave, with a stint cleaning the toilets too?
Remember playing football at school with jumpers for goalposts well, this is the direction we are heading.
VAR and goal line technology will be a thing of the past.
You can kiss the Premier League goodbye for now and maybe evermore.
OTBC
They’re popular because the owners are potless and selling players and grabbing tv cash is the only way to keep the lights on. Why the chef and hubby haven’t been able to find any investment ( other than getting the fans to pay for the sparkly new training ground) is quite mystifying. I
It’s all going to be irrelevant if/when the “big six” get their way and take over the whole football pyramid. When that happens I’ll say “thank you for the good times, but that’s it for me with professional football”. I’ll go and watch some real grass roots stuff, and enjoy it for what football really should be.
You could arguably say Farke achieved his remit after Premier League promotion; which was to galvanise a younger 1st team playing squad and open this up to the (now) revitalised youth academy both working in tandem.
Webber and Farke’s mission impossible is to now promote Norwich to enable them to become PL regulars, and I dare say improve the stadium (which only comes from the wealth of being in the Prem).
From what I’ve read, Norwich was on a pretty slippery slope to financial hell back in 2017. And recently a lot of articles coming out of the EDP are suggesting it was a lot worse than we realised.
I’m grateful for Webber and Farke’s involvement in improving that situation.
But the caveat is, why should we find ourselves in that position in the first place? The one constant through all the ups and downs over the years is… ownership. We’re all sick of mentioning the elephant in the room, but it remains. Yes, Norwich can be a self sustaining club, and is doing that right now – but it can only be to a point, which, being very realistic, is mid-table / upper Championship level.
I’m going to tap on the Delia drum as we can’t not, but fans have to think, yes thank you Webber and Farke for getting us where we are now, but again, why was the club in such a radically poor condition in the first place? Delia and Wyn Jones need to take a look in the mirror and stop pandering to their egos.
Farke is a good coach and you could point to him not being backed last summer, in that ill-fated PL expedition but I struggle to fathom how Norwich dropped out of the Prem without so much of a whimper, breaking our consecutive defeats record, when he had a team littered with talent.
The ideas Farke has implemented have been laid down as the foundation of the academy football now, based on a Dutch model. Which is great, however Farke should not be considered invincible. Norwich have after all adopted the Head Coach model, which makes that position interchangable when it runs it’s course.
But then, we come back round to the villain of the piece – money. And to remove Farke and co would result in a massive outlay of money once again. Money Norwich don’t have because… their owner can’t stump up.
Which is the Norwich age old conumdrum, one which will be with us for a long time yet.
Farke’s been backed this summer window, and the reality is, this is another transitional season. Whether or not Farke will be afforded the luxury of time in 2017 will be doubtful, there’s a massive expectation for the squad to compete, and rightly so given the £ spent. So Farke has to do it all over again, prove to the fans 2018/19 wasn’t a fluke. Good luck to him, I wouldn’t want a job where you’ve got one hand tied behind your back the whole time.
Watched the rotherham game and thought we we aweful 3 at the back Hanley plays rubbish he’s so slow, the team set up was worse than ever we had the ball and there was nobody coming or wanting to receive it, it’s going to be a long season we won’t go up but at least we will be rich we hear farke wanted another center back but was not given the money so sums it up