Well, that was disappointing. Not the apocalypse, but certainly disappointing.
In the end, in the crazy world of Championship football, City were lucky to escape with a point, but that would have been harsh in the extreme.
We may not have been at our fluent best for the full 95 but there was more than enough there – especially if you’re a stats person – to suggest City should have won comfortably.
But they didn’t and the issue of breaking down teams at Carrow Road remains, even those whose sole intention isn’t to sit deep and defend.
For a team that’s been on such a rotten run, QPR were bright and breezy last night and while Mark Warburton’s overriding theme was to keep it tight and not overcommit, in Bright Osayi-Samuel and Ilias Chair he had a pairing who will cause problems for most Championship defences.
But, as ever, it was City’s inability to convert a high enough percentage of chances that cost them. A recurring theme, which in itself is odd given that we’re top of the table, but explains why our wins, when they occur, tend to be by the odd goal.
The ship has hit some mildly choppy waters. A single point over Christmas, coming off the back of five straight wins, is a mini-blip I guess but the reaction has been disproportionate.
The surge to the top of the league had some believing that that was where we would stay for the rest of the season, but we’re not Wolves of 2017/18, or Leeds of last season, or even the Norwich City of 2018/19.
And just because we’re fresh from the Premier League, we have no divine right to be where we are right now. Many in a similar position to us have creaked and floundered under the weight of expectation.
For the fallout from every dropped point to be quite so pronounced helps nobody. Never has ignore the noise been more appropriate.
That’s not to say there aren’t issues for Team Farke to address beyond the snaffling a higher percentage of goalscoring chances because there are – namely finding a slightly more solid base from which to perform in the middle and attacking thirds.
The good news is that Daniel Farke does have alternatives available to him, and no longer is he constrained by his first XI almost picking itself.
Some of the personnel changes are obvious and while I admire Farke’s loyalty and his determination to never throw a player under the bus, Ben Gibson for Christoph Zimmermann is a change that just has to be made.
Zimbo, for all his undoubted qualities, is struggling and is a shadow of the colossus who partnered Ben Godfrey two seasons ago. Successive injuries and operations have taken their toll and a centre-back who has one rick a game in him eventually becomes a problem.
For me, that’s a quick win for Farke. So too is Xavi Quitilla for Jacob Sorensen if/when the Spaniard is match fit.
A more tricky conundrum, and one where the answer is probably ‘horses for courses’, is that base of City’s midfield. Oliver Skipp has been outstanding, Kenny McLean was excellent again last night, but with options available who all offer something different, it’s a juggling act for Team Farke.
One thing is for sure – given the way we play, and the way Max Aarons and whoever plays left back are asked to join in, we’re never ever going to fully solve the conceding-too-many-goals conundrum. We’re never going to go full Sheffield United 2018/19 and I don’t think any of us want us to.
To do that would dilute the joie de vivre in City’s play when they do hit their straps and no-one wants that.
But none of that stops us conceding really sloppy soft ones, like we did against Watford and like we did again last night. And that’s something that doesn’t rely on a solid base or formations.
Sorensen, after making a brilliant tackle, was sloppy with his use of the ball, Vrancic lost out hopelessly in a 60/40, and Zimbo made a daft challenge that was only ever going to end up with a penalty awarded.
With Oliver Langford’s ears still ringing from the QPR ear-bashing induced by the Todd Cantwell penalty decision, he was never in a million years not going to award a pen. By the same score, the erroneous decision to rule out Cantwell’s goal meant the merest touch on Dereham’s finest was always going to end in a City penalty.
Rightly or wrongly, that’s how it tends to work, although it was difficult to love the histrionics from the City bench after the disallowed goal.
We harp on endlessly about our loathing of VAR and how it stitched us up when Pukki ‘scored’ against Tottenham last season. The trade-off for not having it is we occasionally get on the receiving end of a wrong decision.
That, as they say, is football. Or at least it was until VAR intervened.
To hurl the toys out of the pram when one goes against us is not a great look, although I guess they’ll argue it did heap the pressure on Mr Langford. I’d still rather we made our point and left it there… but I’m old-fashioned!
Either way, it was a disappointing evening but that relentless 20-minute spell just after half-time was enough to tell me City are not about to give up their place at the top of the division easily or in a hurry.
While it’s still too early to worry too much about the results of others, I’ll not complain that four of the top six are playing each other tonight.
Calm heads people. It’s only half-time.
Thanks for reading MFW in 2020. Never taken for granted.
Let’s hope for a better 2021.
Never Mind the Danger
Morning Gary, good summing up of a disappointing result. I totally agree that we need Gibson back in as soon as possible. There is the option to bring him in, and play three centre halves. When we did that at Watford, it worked quite well, and that system does give attacking full backs licence to get forward more, which if Quintilla comes in would be great, as he can put a ball in to the box with his left foot, unlike Sorensen! We quite often loose the impetus of an attack when Sorensen has to come back inside to pass with his right foot, and then it’s usually backwards. Much as I like him as a player, and am grateful for the stirling work he’s done as a stand-in, it’s not where I want to see him playing.
I also think Farke failed to pick up on the fact that Vrancic was tiring. It’s the reason he missed out on the 60/40 that led to their penalty, and he was starting to look leggy and mentally not switched for a little while before that. I think it’s time to renew the Tettey/Skipp partnership in midfield.
Before I go, a word for Daniel Bardon. He didn’t look nervous, couldn’t have stopped a penalty which would have beaten Tim Krul, and obviously had the confidence of the defenders in front of him, given how they were willing to pass back to him, and use him to play out from the back.
Good constructive piece Gary. I thought whilst the referee wasn’t great (to put it mildly), the game was completely in our own hands after Pukki’s penalty. It wasn’t unreasonable to expect City to tighten up a bit after that, but we just seemed to clam up and let Rangers right back into it. Even before QPR’s penalty, there was the clear header they had which went straight at Barden (and that’s before we get onto the shocking stoppage time miss that would have won them the game).
Despite our dominance for much of the match, one or two players seemed to be off the pace a bit, so I suspect there will be changes for and one or two rested for Saturday’s game. No panic yet, as we’re still on exactly the same wins, draws and losses as the class of 2018-19, plus on the two points a game trajectory. I just wish we could kill teams off, because although we’re not letting in stacks of goals, we’re not currently keeping many clean sheets either. One goal never feels like it will be enough.
Well I appreciate this won’t be a popular interpretation, but watching the game on iFollow at first sight I immediately expected the Cantwell “goal” to be ruled out for offside. He and Pukki were both clear of all 3 QPR defenders. So I was slightly surprised when all this fuss kicked off.
I’ve watched it again this morning slowing it all down and frankly Farke’s claim that Cantwell was a yard behind Pukki is yellow-and-green tinted botocks. Until the last second Cantwell is clearly ahead, and by the time Pukki plays the pass he might have been the proverbial toenail behind the ball, but to me at best he looks level. OK, it’s hard to tell precisely from the angle we are given, or indeed from 30 yards away on the touchline. But it certainly wasn’t as clear cut as some are claiming, and I very much doubt if VAR would have allowed it.
But what’s really frustrating is that Cantwell only had to hold back half a pace to make it absolutely a non-issue. Even if the defender had got there first he’d have had a tough job not to put it past his own keeper. It’s a shame, because of the 3 “flair” players Todd seemed the most effective last night.
Farke is clearly frustrated, and whatever he says in public behind closed doors it will surely be with the performance of his players than the officials that concerns him more. Top of the league we may be, and long may that continue; but we all know that in truth we are not currently really the best team in the division. I don’t care how many neat flicks and tricks Vrancic and Buendia have up their sleeves, at the moment they are not making anything happen for us.
Osayi-Samuel and Chair (or Cher, as I thought Chris Goreham was calling him) were the latest in a line of opposition livewires capable of stretching us. QPR’s back 4 and midfield knew where to find them, and did so repeatedly in the first half. To be fair, we were much better at cutting off the supply after the break.
I guess this is where we really are missing Placheta and Hernandez – genuine wide players who can pick up the ball on the break and stretch a defence rather than always, but always, running into congestion between the centre circle and penalty spot.
Will we still be at the top, or perhaps second, come May? I think we will. Will we though have found a way to win rather more convincingly at this level than hitherto? We better had have because if not, come August, assuming we are back in the top flight, we will once again have not a hope playing this way. If bang average Championship teams know how to smother us it’s hardly a surprise if everyone in the PL can do it too.
Hi Keith
Spot on, particularly your last sentence.
I’d like to make a witty comment about *Cher* but it’s Sonny outside so I’m off for a fag.
Hi Gary
In comments last night during the game someone mentioned that the Ref was more often used as an assistant and that last night was his first gig as a Ref for quite sometime after making a couple of howlers, if that was the case then we got the wrong end of a bad call.
They say that all teams gave a blip during the season let’s hope 🙏 this is ours and it soon passes, I think a lot of this is down to tired minds and bodies due to all the injuries city have had.
We move on to Barnsley on Saturday who had a close win V Rotherham last night so they might be on a high and are really doing well in the top half of the league.
Who will be in goal come Saturday Barden could do OK but will be targeted so let’s hope Krul is fit to resume as No1.
Onwards and upwards
OTBC
Stay Safe and Stay Healthy 🙏
Happy New Year to everyone ✨
You fail to understand your own point, even with VAR we end up on the end of wrong decisions so there is no trade off for not having it. You cite Pukki’s goal against Tottenham – as if VAR would have awarded it when it did the opposite – and when countless VAR decisions, and more importantly non-decisions, went against us. So there is no trade-off for not having VAR…we still end up with Zimbo in a crumpled heap and our season effectively ruined by Haller’s dangerous but unpunished red card late tackle, we don’t go to the FA Cup semi-finals when Todd Cantwell is body checked off the ball but in full view of the cameras yet goes completely unchallenged by the officials, or the commentators, and those are just 3 of the more important VAR mistakes. If those 3 errors had been rectified then we beat West Ham, and Spurs, and have a shot of reaching the FA Cup final. So whether it is mistakes by officials in real-time or using VAR we would undoubtedly have lost out more using the latter.
The only point I was trying to make, Tony (and clearly did so very badly) was that if there had been VAR last night, Cantwell’s goal would have been awarded. Wouldn’t it?
Someone said we are exactly the same as season 18. not quite right given all the troubles at the short close season we are 3 games behind, scored 17 less but let in fewer too. .
But all what has been commented on is nothing new, the problems have arisen before, we are not scoring enough, winning by odd goal is fine, I’ll take any win. But one goal lead is always a dodgy one, opponents score in 90 minute . that’s two down the drain, especially frustrating when play has been dominated.
It isn’t as if we have not seen teams sit deep and let you play in front of them, get nearer their area they will stifle and deny space, getting over this seems to be Farke’s handicap.
Carrying on like this will lead to another annihilation should we go up. But still enjoying the usual rollercoaster