Taking on guest blog duties today is season-ticket holder Mike Taylor who looks at what needs to change in order for the promotion push to be sustained…
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We aren’t top by a fluke: The performances against Boro and Millwall are inconsequential; take the two points and clean sheets and look forward.
However, don’t be blinkered either: Swansea, Brentford and Watford are going to sprint to the finish and we need to stay in the fight. We aren’t playing worse, but I would categorically state that teams do now know how to stifle Teemu Pukki, Todd Cantwell and Emi Buendia.
In order to regain our potency, a central #10 must step forward. Without a central #10, with a defensive pair rather than a playmaker from deep, 4-2-3-1 doesn’t function as intended.
Daniel Farke has defensively improved 4-2-3-1 this season with two holding midfielders but they have managed just one goal between them and they lack the incisive, super-quick passes out of the defensive midfield areas; the passes that Mo Leitner and Ton Trybull were renowned for.
As a predominantly lone striker, Pukki looks increasingly isolated, oftentimes because Buendia and Cantwell are dropping deeper to receive the ball. Our new tweaked system works well defensively but is there an attacking forfeit?
In 2018/19 Marco Stieperman was brilliant as a very unconventional #10 but as we can see this season with Marco, Mario Vrancic and Teemu, all those legs are clearly two years older.
If we are to take that defensive advantage to another Championship title, or an automatic promotion slot, then that #10 role needs energy, game-changing creativity, and it needs goals, goals, goals.
I trust Farke to fix it, but I suggest it might be an unexpected change.
Will the pace, power and long-range shooting of Adam Idah be the ace up our sleeve? Bring on tonight’s mouth-watering tie. It’s time for some NCFC magic, and maybe time for a new hero to emerge.
“Midfield Mike” Taylor
Hourihane is the best all round midfielder at this level by a country mile, he’s now supporting Ayew and Lowe and will make them formidable.
We are probably going to play a lone striker, just for a change, and with the pre-occupation of an advance Hourihane McLean and Skipp are going to be disconnected from our attacking 3+1…. and with Lowe and Ayew splitting our CBs and FB’s, we are going to see little width from pinned fullbacks.
Vrancic can’t play from deep in this match because of his lack of battle with Hourihane, and as a #10 I think Grimes will lap him up. Cantwell will drop looking for the ball and be miles away from Pukki. I hope Hernandez will play but I bet he perseveres with PP citing match fitness.
What DF might want to consider is binning 4-2-3-1 because he doesn’t have a #10 and play 3-5-2 or 3-4-3 and get the pace and directness of Idah involved. But the team don’t train that way so it won’t happen.
Batten down the hatches. If McLean is brave enough to break the defensive mould, he’s our match winner tonight…. otherwise start cringing now,
We bought Dowell to play as the 10 and once he’s up to speed I’m sure that’s who will play there. Swansea aren’t world beaters – Brentford completely outplayed them at their place a couple of games ago. Hourihane’s a good player at this level, but remember he couldn’t get in a poor Viila team last year.
Nothing to be scared of; we’ll be well up for this and will show the league what we’re made of. I’m confident we won’t lose.
Hi Stephen,
Dowell actually exemplifies my biggest worry with DF. All his eggs are in one basket with 4-2-3-1. Dowell is almost identical to the way Todd plays, similar to Emi, a playmaker. Looking from the outside in, I imagine DF wanted all 3 behind Pukki in his first 11. How on earth does he change away from that if the tactics necessitate? How can he get width on, or a second striker, let alone both, unless he subs his playmakers, arguably the most talented offensive players on the pitch.
I initially assumed when we got Dowell it was so that we could sell Todd. All that creativity but only one striker, yet without raw pace or power in the box.
Looking forward to seeing him as a 75th minute sub again tonight,… 😂
Cheers, enjoy the game
Is it just that the legs are 2 years older?
All this season it’s looked to me as if Vrancic (in particular) is running through the thickest of thick treacle.
He looks really laboured, and rather than blossoming in the absence of Steipermann and being given a decent run in the team, has been a main proponent of Pukki being more and more isolated.
Still; 23 other teams in the Championship would love to change places with us, I’m sure.
O T B C
Bang on John. I can’t believe we didn’t get Diedhou for peanuts or heaven forbid, Hourihane. 4-2-3-1 tactically falters without the #10 (think De Bruyne & Fernando Torres) and the problem is magnified when the sitting 2 don’t trigger the passes as quickly as Leinter or Trybull (or a younger Vrancic) did in 2018/19.
And when the #10 isn’t playing, the angles go amiss to correctly involve overlapping fullbacks. We end up with a very flat forward lines lacking angles, with players on top of each other, only one of whom is ever in the box.
Being top of the league after 27 games of 46 isn’t the worst place to be. In the last 10 games Norwich have:
– Lost only 1 & conceded only 5 goals
– They’ve won 6 & scored 12 goals
The main problem – tied in with your No. 10 points – is that Norwich present a really limited goal threat. Only 2 players have scored more than 3 league goals this season after 27 games – Buendia 7 and Pukki 11. Not good enough – and not the sort of stats to worry any potential opposition.
Still top of the Championship though – but if Norwich get promoted, scoring goals is not going to be any easier in the division above.
I feel tonight’s game is a biggie. The result will dictate the players mindset for the rest of the season – and we’re approaching the business end now. A biggie.
Yes Chris, the lack of goals from other players is likely paramount.
The defensive shift in the midfield 2 has really had a bigger ripple effect than most realise. In 2018/19 our fullbacks were better involved with deeper lying playmakers like Leitner and Trybull…. they had 11 assists whereas this season we’ve had only 2.
I think we are top because we won most “6 pointers” in the first half but now, it is purely about finding form at the right time and sprinting to the finish line.
I’m not sure playing 4-2-3-1, which is containable, is enough without a #10 or without having a way of changing it up, with Idah’s pace, for example.
My main bugbear with 4-2-3-1 is that is so hard to change thighs shape significantly whilst exploiting your strengths…..
I.e. How do you add a second striker, concurrently adding genuine attacking width a without subbing Todd or Emi, and still maintain movement of the ball behind them? It is such a complicated system to change mid-game and requires lots of substitutions.
Cheers, enjoy the match! OTBC
I love Mario, but as the comment above says like running through treacle, perhaps this is the reason no contract is forthcoming. Sorenson might be an option, he knows how to defend so therefore may read defenders well. remember Chris Sutton was a centre half in his early days. just a silly thought perhaps. Nothing we can say can affect anything.
We will be able to play our more normal game tonight, I hope, Swansea have a good defence, like we do so will not be surprised for another 0-0. One thing that is disappointing me, we won’t be able to hear the excellent pundit Mark Walton. His tactical knowledge and reading of the game is second to none on Radio Norfolk. He made the Welsh and west side of the country games, all the more worth tuning into
Hi Lad
Absolutely agree about Mark Walton – he’s head & shoulders clear of the rest and that’s really saying something as Mark Rivers is excellent too.
I think it’s supposed to be Holty alongside Chris G tonight but I’ll be slumming it on Sky.
Here’s an idea. Bring in Sorenson alongside Skipp and then push McClean forward to the 10 role. He has a bit of everything in his locker. Something we need in a number 10. Stiepermann did it brilliantly 2 years ago.
I wonder if the other Daniel (the one that matters) has thought of such a simple but brilliant solution?
O T B C
All of these issues are tied together. The back 4 are solid with Skipp and either Rupp or McLean as the defensive midfielders. However, you are right the back 6 have provided few chances or goals. The Emi and Todd are quality players and Emi has been providing chances, assists and goals but despite looking bright Todd has been less effective. You are also right that we have missed Steipi. His ungainly control and excellent weight of passing for Pukki has been sorely missed. In my mind Dowell has yet to convince me as he has had little game time. Perhaps the biggest problem, which has not been mentioned is our poor shooting accuracy. We have plenty of shots, in many games we have had 20+ shots. The poor shooting runs throughout the team. Placheta is a prime example. He could easily have had 10 goals by now.