We’re two-thirds of the way through this season and Norwich City lead the pack by seven points. So far, so good. Farke knows how to win this division and has the team with and around him to to achieve that goal again this May.
But as you know, the best guide to the future is always the past; so how strong is City’s challenge this year compared to previous winners?
To find out let’s compare City’s form with all the teams who’ve won the Championship since 2011/12…
City are solidly placed in the top four on games won compared to the best team in the division over the last ten years – and are two places higher than their last Championship triumph in 2018/19.
A fantastically low loss percentage last time, bettered only by Burnley in 2015/16, and pretty darned good this year too.
This is the only faintly worrying stat. City have the worst scoring record of any team who’ve won the Championship over this period. Extrapolated across the season, they would have scored 36 fewer goals than the highest scorers, Bournemouth in 2014/15; and 31 fewer than City’s own successful tilt at the top in 2018/19!
But the most impressive stat, and one I never thought I’d see under Farke, is how few goals we’ve conceded. Far less than one a game. This extrapolates out at 22 goals fewer conceded across the season than in the Championship win two seasons ago. And another clean sheet in the next game would make City the best of the best, moving them above Burnley and Leeds.
Interesting.
Of course, automatic promotion would almost be as good as becoming Champions; but for the sake of having a benchmark to compare against I’ve used the top position only as that’s the surest comparison point I can make. If as a team you equal those performance levels then surely automatic promotion is within your grasp.
There are plenty of games and points to go for yet, but at this stage it’s looking good. Big congrats to Delia, Michael, Stuart, Daniel, and the gang. Would you rather be anywhere else?
OTBC
PS. An early call for Player of the Season. He’s unquestionably committed, unassumingly consistent, and unremittingly effective. More than any other player he has transformed City this season. But who is he?
Ben Gibson.
Cities remaining fixtures
23rd Feb Birmingham away win
28rd Feb Wycombe away win
03rd Mar Brentford home draw
06th Mar Luton home win
13th Mar Sheff Wed away win
17th Mar Nots For away draw
20th Mar Blackburn home win
02nd Apr Preston away draw
05th Apr Huddesfield home win
10th Apr Derby away loss
17th Apr Bournemouth home draw
20th Apr Watford home draw
24th Apr QPR away win
01st May Reading home win
08th May Barnsley away loss
That is a total of an extra 28 points so finish the season on 92 points any takers on for a better total prediction
I make your predictions at 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses, that gives 29 extra points or 93 in total.
Hi Alex. Agree with the majority of those but can’t see us drawing at Preston and losing at Derby if I’m honest. Also why a final day defeat at Barnsley ? On a more greener pitch and the Tykes safe, think we could draw or win there and round the season off in style.
Preston are a strange side and I just think A N will pull out all the stops so he doesn’t lose against city.
Derby under Rooney are getting their act together slowly and will want to prove they can beat the top sides
Barnsley I just have a feeling they might still be in contention fir a playoff slot and city will already know how their season has ended so unless it is to confirm as league winners they might have their foot of the pedal or blood a couple of players for the next season
Norwich is third in conceding goals, sixth in scoring goals stats. Seasons are different because playing styles are developing, honestly english league football is very defensive minded nowadays.
By the way, about stats when Pukki has scored Norwich have won 9 games and draw 2. That means 29 points and its almost half of Norwich overall points. He has scored 0.55 goals per game, 18-19 season it was 0.67 so not far from that and he has suffered injuries this season more than 18-19 season. In 18-19 season Pukki scored 31,2% of Norwich overall goals, this season he has scored 35,7% of Norwich overall goals. There is Norwich fans and even sport journalists who have nerve to complain that he does not score goals enough. As you can all see, its complete nonsense and shameful claim. Norwich problem in attack is that basically only Buendia has helped him in scoring. About defense comparing different seasons and players then is unfair because Norwich plays little bit differently and other teams plays differently. Looking just conceded goals, Gibson and whoever played as left back this season should be many times better players than Godfrey and Lewis are. I dont believe that at all. Manchester City have conceded this season only 15 goals, but reality behind that is that their opponents just park the bus and does not even try to attack much at all.
Interesting article and in many senses reassuring.
Do you have the comparisons for those Champions after 31 games?
Alas Colin, no. It took long enough on Sunday going through all the fairly easily accessible season goals and match totals for each season to create this set of stats – but to manually calculate for each season what each club had got after 31 games was a step too far! By the time I’d done it we’d probably be at 32 or even 33 games played and I’d have to start all over again! I’ll leave that level of stat diving to the paid boys at Archant!
Ah statistics, lies , damn lies and statistics.
Fun though.