Emi has gone and nothing is going to change that, but now I would like to see a very clear tactical plan moving forward.
If they persevere with the 4-2-3-1, City are stuck with a philosophy they cannot financially afford to perfect. I’d prefer we change the base formation and be optimistic about how we move forward.
This squad is limited and we must work with what we have. In my opinion, Sam Byram, Ben Gibson, Lukas Rupp, Dimitri Giannoullis and Kieran Dowell are simply good value players. They are routine signings that most clubs of our size would be expected to make. This is not derogatory, but it does imply that the recruitment since the arrival of Teemu Pukki, Buendia and Tim Krul has been ordinary, with the exception of Oliver Skipp last season. However, the overall development has been sensational and both Stuart Webber and Daniel Farke have worked wonders.
Krul, Grant Hanley, Ben Gibson, Kenny McLean, Todd Cantwell and Pukki are brilliant players and the formation should based around their strengths.
Back to front, the goalkeeping department lacks a Premier League backup. We have four centre backs; Hanley, Gibson or Andrew Omobamidele and Christoph Zimmerman and they are good enough. We have two viable fullbacks with extremely optimistic cover from Byram and Bali Mumba.
We presently don’t have any fit central midfielders. We only have two in total, Rupp and McLean. Debatably, you could argue about Jacob Sorensen.
In attacking midfield neither Marco Stieperman, Pepe Placheta or Onel Hernandez can force themselves into the first team and without Buendia, we are left with Cantwell and Dowell. Now, I’m a big fan of Todd, Kieran has improved, but neither are wingers, or strikers, or deep midfielders. Both are suited to a specific style of play, and there are no other midfielders capable of dictating a formation change because of their ability.
Of the strikers, Jordan Hugill and Adam Idah have not been able to displace Pukki at all, and again, Pukki is very much orientated to a specific brand of football. Despite fleeting attempts, just like the midfielders, no player is good enough to impose a tactical switch.
This is not intended as a moan, it is a tactical observation. The midfield and the attack (or those good enough) are engineered to play 4-2-3-1, and that’s why I’m worried because let’s be ruthless here, City ride a knife-edge of success and failure playing 4-2-3-1.
When Emi was suspended, 4-2-3-1 failed in the Championship because the team could not adapt. If we couldn’t manage 4-2-3-1 in the Championship without Buendia, then in the Premier League you must also question the respectful ability of three or four other players.
Additionally, Webber has repeatedly emphasised the need to improve the squad by being ‘stronger, taller and heavier (and faster)’. This is a concept I emphatically agree with but it is also a concept that they have failed to apply in their recent transfers, Dowell probably being the most recent and prudent example, who is still going to get pushed off the ball by a 34-year-old Mark Noble.
The trouble is, Webber can’t afford to give Farke a ‘taller, stronger, heavier’ version of Mo Leitner or Buendia because Fernandinho and De Bruyne are too expensive and in the Premier League, that’s the standard that makes 4-2-3-1 work. For everyone else, adapt and improvise.
I can’t think of many teams in the bottom half of the Premier League that apply 4-2-3-1 as their recurring base because even clubs with big transfer budgets cannot afford the ideal players to enable the formation.
In the last relegation, even with McLean and Alex Tettey, 4-2-3-1 was brutally exposed. The CDMs need to be able to play as well as physically compete, which is why Farke started this project years ago with Leitner, Tom Trybull or Mario Vrancic first and foremost in his plans.
This season, Skipp and McLean continued the defensive concept, but it was proven to only be viable with the enigmatic talent of Buendia, who could compensate for the lack of goals and creativity from the CDMs.
In conclusion, to enable 4-2-3-1 at the highest level, and to compensate for Buendia, I think Webber would need to buy more players than the transfer budget can afford.
It is not a whinge, it is me trying to be optimistic and pro-active: I think City need to reassess whether a different formation would be more financially viable.
Aarons and Buendia will likely be replaced but neither are central players where the ‘stronger, taller, heavier’ physical improvement needs to apply. To achieve it centrally, does anyone propose replacing Pukki, Dowell or McLean through the middle of the team? If you think a winger that can play as a striker is the answer, supposedly like Matheus Pereira, then don’t pretend that the squad will be ’stronger, taller, heavier’. It simply won’t be.
Therefore, especially without Buendia, the solution lies in a change of formation, as much as in the confines of a transfer budget.
By changing formation, City can buy quality over quantity and make best use of the remaining squad. Personally, I liken the Brighton squad to our own. Albeit by the skin of their teeth, they routinely play 3-4-2-1 and survive. Such a formula is the optimal solution, financially, technically and physically. It is also the most affordable and the least disruptive. City could surely afford Matheus Klich, or Stefan Johansen, to partner Kenny McLean?
Cantwell should be given a more attacking role which offers Pukki the closer support he craves. McLean should be playing box to box whilst the team concurrently needs a playmaker. The loss of Tettey and Skipp would be mitigated with three centre-backs who would also be better suited to absorb the high press.
The aim of this season is about staying in the Premier League aligned to a budget that is limited to perhaps two influential signings and some low-cost squad strengthening. When you consider the potential transfer targets, players like Adam Armstrong at Blackburn, you can easily see how adaptable 3-4-2-1 would be. It’s more compact, it epitomises Farkeball, and there is safety in numbers in defence, midfield and attack. It doesn’t need exorbitantly expensive players and it suits what we already have.
But we won’t do justice to Hanley, McLean, Cantwell and Pukki by flogging a dead horse. 4-2-3-1 without Buendia didn’t work in the Championship. 4-2-3-1 with Tettey and McLean didn’t work in the Premier League. We cannot afford the players. Period.
Our destiny isn’t an argument about selling Buendia, it isn’t about transfer budgets, it is about who we can afford to play where and in what base formation
This season, our net squad is 7 or more first-team players down. It is hard to comprehend.
Think about it, 2 years ago… Onel, Kenny, Marco, Tetts, Mario, Tom, Todd, Mo, Godfrey, Zimbo, Hanley, Klose, Lewis, Max Emi and Teemu…. we carried forward 16 outfield players that were instrumental to promotion.
But this season? Who are we carrying forward?
Grant, Ben and Andy O, who was in the youth team 4 months ago, Kenny and Lukas who are both injured, Dimitris, Todd, Kieran and Teemu. (Assuming Max goes). Maybe at a push, Jacob Sorensen?
But come on, players that fit DF’s 4-2-3-1 system? We are only carrying forward 9 outfield players that were regularly involved in promotion.
We’ve got a £30m budget and we are 6+ outfield players down than the last time….. that’s before replacing the 2 linchpins of success. Before improving the squad.
We’ve gone down a one-way street building towards 4-2-3-1 and quietly, lurking in the shadows, 4 or 5 or 6 or 7 players have dropped out along the way.
Excellent piece Mike.
I am intrigued as to how Daniel will set us up this year from a tactical point of view. Especially with so much having been learnt two seasons ago.
I had my doubts over a forward line of Cantwell, Pukki, Dowell, Buendia in the Prem, which may surprise fellow supporters.
But I was surprised at just how more physical the EPL had become two seasons ago. That forward line, blessed with ability but you could describe as a bit lightweight. I know Manchester City’s forward line are hardly “big lads” but they do have Fernandinho and Rhodri behind them. (Unless it’s a Champions League Final !)
Recruitment this year will be the be all and end all if we are to survive.
Will Daniel play 3 at the back with wing backs ? I wouldn’t rule it out.
Hi Tim, thanks for replying.
“I had my doubts over a forward line of Cantwell, Pukki, Dowell, Buendia in the Prem”. Yes, me too, and that sentence summarises what I mean about how everything has been steered towards an optimum 4-2-3-1 guise. I hope he goes 3 at the back, but either Todd or Dowell would be sacrificed accordingly, and I don’t know if that will happen, unless he plays a front 3, because neither are really suited to dropping into a 4 or 5 man midfield which would, by necessity, already have 2 wingbacks and its number.
Every time I’ve seen a space in the squad open up, and hoped for some variety to diversify the base formation, we end up with yet another 4-2-3-1 player….. for example, when Duda didn’t make the grade, and we knew Stieperman couldn’t play in the Prem, it seemed the obvious time to try something a bit different, but we plumped for Dowell (who has massively improved).
Really interesting piece. Must admit I hadn’t really thought of tactical options until now. This tactical shape could be the way forwards..certainly feel that we need strength and athleticism in the middle but my concern is that we would still be too lightweight with dowell and cantwell behind pukki. I just don’t see us being able to recruit the sort of quality that we need but I hope I’m wrong, but I think the answer is not to try to replace emi directly. We will need to spend more than 30 mill if we are to be competitive imo. As an aside I think Gibson was a genius signing..I think he is definitely a premier league quality defender
Hi Sean, thanks for replying. I absolutely agree with you when you say “I think the answer is not to try to replace emi directly.”
Regarding Gibson, I think he’s a great fit. I simply mean that he is an appropriate standard for our aspirations and our budget after we were relegated . The performances of Andy O were excellent as well, and his turn of pace was an improvement to Gibson, but clearly Gibson has other qualities so both balanced each other out.
We will be lightweight in attack which is why I want a formation change. I’d actually be just as happy with Todd on the left and Pukki on the right, behind a focal point. Teems does so much work defensively and his conversion rate isn’t emphatic, but what a fabulous player he is.
Of course, the huge area, as always is centre mid. City need to balance that need for power and height without forfeiting energy and creativity. Skipp personified what Amadou was not.
Hopefully City have an eye on Joachim Andersen as a possible loan target as well as Kris Ajer. When you see these guys play, it becomes daunting to realise the standard of even central defenders at the top level.
Great read Mike
The first signing that needs to be confirmed is that of DF and his backroom staff.
My reasoning is simple if as at present he leaves at the end of next season then who ever replaces him will want a major overhaul of the squad or at least the system we play.
I think the first thing most players that might sign will ask is who is going to be manager next season and before I get shot down we all except managers get poached or sacked mid season but if the managers I am leaving any play will think twice before signing.
Until we see 👀 the type, class, age and skill set of the signings throwing systems out there we can or should use is possibly a little presumptuous and DF will already know his preferred systems and SW will hopefully sign players that can adapt quickly to whichever system is used.
I agree with you. I don’t know how DF will respond to Buendia going. Of course he knew the players wishes but SW seems to have tightened the budget in the last few weeks. I think the Covid financial impact maybe worse than they had forecast. The spending power seems to have reduced to £15m + £15m, and over the last few months and year I had the impression from SW it would have been more than that and I think they may have identified targeted prior to now which are now too expensive. When you consider a defender like a Gibson was already close to the transfer records of a Brady and Naismith, I think you begin to realise they might not afford much more than that (SOLID) Calibre of player. But that is way short of what Kris Ajer or Joachim Andersen would be, even as loan fees.
I posted earlier that 2 seasons ago we carried forward SIXTEEN outfield players that were all fundamental to the promotion. This season, the regular players that can adapt to 4-2-3-1…. we are carrying forward maybe NINE. That’s a heck of a lot of players for £30m and I’m sure that’s not lost on DF.
Our biggest weakness in the Premier League in 2019/20 was in central defence. This time with a fit Grant Hanley, Ben Gibson and Andrew Omobamidele, we may do better. Kenny McLean has also matured into a strong midfield presence.
Who knew we were in for Dowell last year or Buendia and Pukki two years before? I hope the early sale of Buendia gives Webber the opportunity to move decisively for new talent to provide the fillip that City need going into the season.
When we know who is available at a price that City can afford, we can than turn to the formation that will get the best out of the talent at Daniel Farke’s disposal.
Hi Doug, personally I think DF needs to pick his formation first and foremost and carefully choose who will fit and who is capable of adapting to plan B and C when needed. The budget is going to be very tight this summer and the fewer signings that they make, the better the players can be. I agree with you about Mclean, but by classic example, if we persist with 4-2-3-1 then his midfield partner must have either more technique or if we get Skipp back, then the hole left by Buendia will be seismic, as we experienced whenever Emi was suspended these last few years. But if DF chooses a looser formation, were McLean can play box to box and be less positionally stifled, then there is greater freedom in the players they look at to partner him. I have no doubt DF and SW know their plan already and i personally think that’s why Buendia went without a bidding war. They got the amount they knew they needed to act on certain players and therefore I would expect arrivals sooner than later. Thanks for the comment.
Interested that you say, in one paragraph, that Ben Gibson is no more than a “value signing” whilst in the next paragraph call him a “brilliant player”
I disagree completely with your assessment of Giannoulis. I concede he has yet to prove it in the EPL but, from what I’ve seen, I have no worries there. I also think Mumba can make the step up to replace Max (if necessary)
I think Daniel is wedded to 4-2-3-1 and that any transfer targets will be based around that. I think you’re being overly pessimistic about our chances of survival, albeit without Emi.
I’m looking forward to the season, I’m excited. I trust DF and SW. But I think they will need to change to a 3 man backline.
I’m sorry about confusing you with some points about Giannoulis and Gibson. I consider 8m to be fair market value, the free transfers for Krul or Pukki were extraordinary value. I only seek to highlight that a REPLACEABLE squad player is 8m per head and in midfield alone we need squad players to replace Tettey, Trybull, Vrancic, Leitner and Stieperman.
However, if Kristof Ajer or Joachim Andersen were here on loan and they were injured, then we would certainly notice it. If Oliver Skipp had been injured, we would have noticed it. When Buendia was unavailable, we noticed it. When Gibson was injured, we didn’t notice it. Sorensen could have played for the rest of the season at LB and we would have still won the league. That isn’t being negative about Gibson or Giannoulis. That’s me saying that 16m is spent in a jiffy and NCFC need to replace Skip and Buendia just to play 4-2-3-1, let alone improve it.
I’m certainly not pessimistic because I can see a viable COA and I have faith in SW and DF to achieve it. Sorry for the long winded reply. Cheers, OTBC
Changing the formation is certainly a topic for debate, but I think the argument in favour of 3-4-2-1 is weaker than presented here.
In any formation, Krul, Giannoulis, Hanley Gibson, Aarons, McLean, Cantwell, Dowell and Pukki are all probably considered starters. The remaining two players are to be the two influential signings. In a 4-2-3-1 that’s a DM and attacking midfielder, in a 3-4-2-1 it’s a DM (see below) and CB. Given an arbitrary budget of £10m we can probably get a better CB than attacking midfielder, but I think there’s issues with the 3-4-2-1 which are underplayed here.
Our fullbacks may play like wingbacks, but we’ve never seen them in that system to know they suit it. Aarons and Giannoulis had plenty of freedom to attack as fullbacks in the Championship, arguably as much as they would as wing backs in the Prem, yet neither delivered a meaningful number of goals or assists this season. It’s unlikely they’d contribute enough between them in attacking areas to compensate for the attacking midfielder removed from the formation.
At CB, the article suggests we have the quality to play 3 at the back. Yet Zimmerman hasn’t been fully fit for 18 months and hasn’t looked the same player since Haller’s assault. Omobamidele has played just 9 senior games. None of our CBs have regularly played in a 3 CB system. We’d need at least one of our “influential” signings to be in this position should we adopt a 3-4-2-1.
If we put McLean in a 2 man central midfield, his partner needs to be a very strong DM in either formation. Brighton have the £50m-rated Bissouma, Wolves have Neves, Sheffield United Berge. The suggestion of a box-to-box midfielder next to a playmaker in a 3-4-2-1 is not seen in any successful Premier League team deploying that formation. We need fundamentally the same player for a 4-2-3-1 or 3-4-2-1.
An attacking trio of Pukki, Cantwell and Dowell is proposed here, dismissing the idea of adding a Perreira-type player on the basis of not adding height and strength, in favour of adding nothing at all. The fact Webber has also mentioned adding pace in these areas is not mentioned – something a winger would add.
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For me, a 3-4-2-1 adds a great deal of uncertainty and unfamiliarity, only marginally improves the transfer situation, and may leave us impotent in attacking areas.
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To throw another formation into the mix (and to be criticised!), a 4-3-2-1 appears to me to offer some of the best features of both.
-We maintain continuity with a back 4. Perhaps there’s no new signing needed here.
-We have the same Pukki, Cantwell, Dowell trio up top as the 3-4-2-1
In midfield:
-We still need a DM signing
-The second influential addition to the team is a deep lying playmaker or box to box midfielder. It’s a good opportunity to add physicality to the midfield, and an additional player screening the defence.
-McLean is more free to go box-to-box, but can also cover others doing the same. There’s also the opportunity to switch to a 4-2-3-1 on the fly depending on game state, with McLean taking the CAM role. We’re already fluent in that formation so it would be a shame to discard it.
-3 central midfielders gives us more scope for tailoring the middle of the park to suit the opposition. Sorensen can offer a more defensive presence for example.
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Either way, it’s clear the squad needs some big additions, and it offers an opportunity to reshape the team as necessary. It’ll be interesting if the club identify significant value in a particular signing, and shape the team to maximise said player.
Hi DH Canary, thank you for an excellent reply.
I agree with all of your arguments but for one critical aspect, which is that I think…. the sum of all parts over a whole season of ups and downs…. that 3-4-2-1 would trump 4-2-3-1. Your points are valid about 4-2-3-1. But I think with the 3rd defender, it would be JUST enough. JUST within budget.
The whole reason i choose that formation is because of the limits of our transfer budget and I see it is prevalent in your Cmas Tree too 😉
I don’t think NCFC can afford the CDM that makes 4-2-3-1 viable at the top level. That player needs to be able to pass, which is why DF’s initial template 2-3+ years ago was to play Leitner and then have Stieperman as a 10. (This is such a great debate to be had :-)).
In 2018/19, with the playmaker CDM, we scored 93 goals, the overall goal difference was +36. A huge factor, massively underestimated, was that the play-maker saw massive numbers coming from Hernandez, Stieperman, Vrancic, Buendia. When you consider that the class of 18/19 didn’t have Skipp, and that was when Buendia was half as good as he was this season, I’d argue it was a better team, pound for pound. We carried forward 16 outfield players who had all made regular, starting first team appearances during the promotion season, excluding the subs. I can’t say the same for this season.
This season, without the play-maker from deep, 18 fewer goals, with the slight improvement of +39 overall. EIGHTEEN fewer goals, which is insane, but importantly 55% of those goals came from only 2 sources when we played with a dedicated defensive pair of Skipp and McLean. We know how the formation favoured when Emi was suspended too. It seems crazy carrying forward the template without Skipp and Buendia as the lynchpins.
But then we carried forward Leitner into the Premier League. Leitner was destroyed and City could not play 4-2-3-1. HOWEVER, who knows how that would have been without the defensive crisis. When City switched to the defensive pairing of Tettey and McLean, there was brief stability but then the goals dried up and we barely recorded a single point. 4-2-3-1 with Tettey and McLean didn’t work last season, you can assume it won’t with McLean and Skipp’s replacement this season.
Y0u made a very good point that I’ve talked about all season with the fullbacks too. Their ultimate output, the final ball, is over-estimated. This is again, a function of the lack of a playmaker because he’s the guy that gets the angles. By the time the ball is with Buendia, Cantwell or Dowell, we are already too flat and high in the overload to exploit overlapping fullbacks. However, to prove the point, when Buendia or Todd has dropped deeper, the angles have been there, and those were the exact times when our fullbacks did notch assists this season. I’m afraid the Premier League teams will mop that up by keeping Cantwell and Buendia (whoops) under control this season, which is why last season Emi only scored twice….. And DHCanary, you’ll love this because you and I are on the same page tactically (albeit we’d do things differently to each other)…. when the playmaker is available in 4-2-3-1, as in 2018/19…. Jamal Lewis and Max had TEN assists. With 2 defensive players this season? 4 assists, 2 of which came from the LB we didn’t keep….
I also agree about the availability of players for 10 million. A CB is a far more affordable than the CM of a necessary standard. I agree with your observation of the central midfielder necessary for the different formations. I have long lauded the need for McLean to be off the leash which 3-4-2-1 facilitates. I know that Bissouma, Neves and Berge are the ideal players in that formation but we can only work with what the budget will allow. Nobody saw Skipp coming and he would have been perfect for the role too.
Regarding Dowell, I only used him as an example of how Norwich have bought players specifically to fit 4-2-3-1. He is a player that is limited in the roles he can play. After all, he is the central player of the (rotating) attacking 3. Surely that is part of the spine where we need to add physicality. He wouldn’t be in my 11 in 3-4-2-1.
My point about 3-4-2-1 is about how NCFC move within their transfer budget.
I have avoided a 3-5=2 for what i would imagine are obvious reasons. There is no obvious role for Cantwell, Dowell and it would impact on Pukki. We would need to buy a Premier League standard striker, defender and midfielder, and we would have no depth to cover it either.
Your limitations about 3-4-2-1 are accurate. It’s simply that I think, within budget, a little luck with injuries permitting, it is the most viable. Skin of the teeth is the expression I used about BHA in the article.
You have proposed 4-3-2-1. The old Cmas Tree. 🙂
I see the merits, particularly within the transfer budget, of that system. I think your system, like mine, is more practical to carry forward next season than 4-2-3-1 which I believe you agree is difficult. My only worry with your idea is the lack of width. I recognise that the midfielders cover the fullbacks, but in my experience with that system the wide players (the fullbacks) get quite isolated in advanced roles and need to be able to create crossing opportunities for themselves. However, I am a huge advocate of the positive aspects to your formation, especially supporting midfielders arriving from deep to support attacks. We massively miss that impact.
An excellent reply, thanks again DH Canary.
PS
1) “The fact Webber has also mentioned adding pace in these areas is not mentioned”. Untrue. SW actually used ‘taller, stronger, heavier.’ In my article I added (as SW intended), “and faster.”
2) “… trio of Pukki, Cantwell and Dowell is proposed here, dismissing the idea of adding a Perreira-type player”. No, I’ve said Cantwell could be closer to Pukki because he’s an outstanding finisher. The third slot is open. I actually said Dowell is very limited to where he can play. Regarding Perreira, I’d love to see him or someone like him. In fact in the 2-1 he’d be even better, just like Todd on the left. I merely mentioned him NOT playing because there is a limit to where the physical power can come from.
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The biggest problem that you have got is not enough goals are being scored from the midfield and forward line up.
Last season Pukki scored in 17 games. Buendia had a handful and so did a few of the other midfielders.
Norwich need to be delivering 50 goals or more next season which is not going to happen with what we have now got in the squad.
Averging out that number, a forward or if tactics change two need to be bagging at least 10 each as well as midfielders adding to that tally.
In my opinion the tactics have to be changed. We need to be capable of changing the formation and be more flexible with our style of play.
With hardly any crosses into the box, headed goals and the only route is on the floor with Pukki playing off the shoulder of defenders, it will be extremely difficult next season.
The main priority signing for me would be Adam Armstrong for 10 to 15 million he will be worth his weight in gold and be able to fit into our wage structure.
Wingers with speed need to be added and have the ability to knock one into the back of the net.
I have to be honest 30 million will not cut it and to say it will be difficult next season is an understatement.
We need to be making quality signings now not 2nd tier players from abroad who cannot hack it in the Premier League. Even if its one or two signings it will be something to build on for the future and hopefully some good loan options can help us out as well?
Hi Greg,
I’m with you. I don’t think you’ll get headed goals from Armstrong though, but he’s good competition for Pukki. And as for goals from other sources:
in 2018/19 our centre backs scored ELEVEN. This season they got ONE goal.
In 2018/19 our midfielders (excl Buendia) scored THIRTY FIVE, this season EIGHTEEN.
All told, for our defensive improvement the goal difference was +36 versus +39.
Buendia and Skipp, this season were worth 50 million? In 2018/19 the whole squad was worth…. 10?
I trust DF and SW have a plan though and I’m not bothered about losing Buendia as much as I’m excited about what the next evolution will be.