As we wait another week for the death rattles of this festering corpse of a season to gurgle its last, we increasingly look to the future.
While a team relegated from the Premier League can lean on parachute payments to give itself a crack at returning immediately, as we did with the signings of Gabriel Sara and Marcelino Nunez, the second season post-relegation is infinitely more financially fraught with the lessened payments needing to be balanced out with player sales.
But what happens when two terrible campaigns in a row have left you with a demoralised set of individuals whose transfer value has slumped almost as low as the team itself?
Basically, you’re left with no money and a team of players you don’t want here anymore.
Solving this problem is one of the most difficult tasks in football, and while we have all reflected on the two recent promotions under Stuart Webber and Daniel Farke recently as we try and construct a convincing case for rebuilding, I think for the most relevant example of how we turn this around we have to go back a little further in time.
When Paul Lambert arrived, fresh off the back of a thorough and total annihilation of the most tactically naive set-up Norwich City have ever attempted, he inherited a squad barely deserving of the name – one that was utterly unfit for a League One campaign, let alone a title tilt.
The possibility of reinforcements, while not entirely out of the question, was limited to loans and League One and League Two players only. Initially, only a very youthful Fraser Forster was brought in to replace the human punchline that was Michael Theoklitis, and that was it until January.
Yet somehow, Lambert made it work. This team of bedraggled misfits was somehow turned into a dynamic, dominant football team.
It’s the kind of punctuation point marking the end of one period of waning fortune, immediately turning 180 degrees into a period of hope and growth that we desperately need now.
So how did this incredible turnaround come about?
Firstly, David McNally made the pragmatic and correct decision to sack Bryan Gunn. You can only imagine the opposition he must have faced from the other directors at the idea of jettisoning a club legend so soon after the start of the season. Yet he made it happen and it ended up being the best decision of his tenure here.
For just a second we stopped being the nice, cosy club and became a club that wouldn’t settle for misplaced sentimentality.
The obvious parallel to our current situation is with a refresh of the Sporting Director and Head Coach positions. Without a David McNally to take that hard decision though, this is unlikely to happen. To be fair MFW’s Stewart Lewis has also made an eloquent case for why Stuart Webber at least deserves more time.
It’s here.
And I see his point entirely. If Webber is still as committed to the cause as David Wagner would have us believe, how many other Championship clubs can point to a Sporting Director who has built two promotion teams?
But equally, the thought of wiping the slate clean feels incredibly appealing right now. Especially as Webber has yet to emerge from his cocoon of silence to tell us what he plans to do to fix his mess.
The second change that enabled Lambert’s Renaissance was tactical.
Even though he couldn’t really change the players, he could refresh the system. So out went the wide-open 4-4-2 that Gunny had employed, and which he had so ruthlessly ripped apart with his Colchester team, and in came a diamond formation.
While the diamond had its weaknesses, what it did do was change the angles and the passing lanes from those the players had grown accustomed to. Those players still nursing a relegation hangover were no longer going through the same old routines, playing the same passes to the same teammates, who were in the same positions as before.
If you can’t refresh the players, you can at least refresh their minds. Tactically it was a master stroke.
So do we have a manager in Wagner who can arrest this slide into a turgid, error-strewn mess of a side? Current results would, unfortunately, suggest not.
The 4-3-3(ish) mess that Webber built the squad around two years ago, and which Dean Smith had a tepid, half-hearted attempt at working with has become a more settled Farke-reminiscent 4-2-3-1 (at least in base formation) under Wagner.
This should not surprise anyone, as part of the reason given for Wagner’s appointment was that he plays a clearly defined system, and this has always been his preferred method of setting his team up.
The way that 4-2-3-1 is deployed though is very different to Farkeball. You can already see the attempts to move Max Aarons infield as an inverted wing-back, while Liam Gibbs cycles out to the right-back spot in order to offer a passing option for the defenders.
It’s been less noticeable on the left side, although you can see Kenny McLean performing the Gibbs equivalent on the left when fit again, and maybe even Bali Mumba being able to contribute on his return from an epic League One campaign with Plymouth.
Likewise, a midfielder dropping back between split centre-backs to dictate play is another feature of Wagnerball, which McLean was dabbling with before his injury.
So there has been a start to Wagner implementing his system, and there is an argument to say that he is yet to be able to bring in players to fit this system and is, instead, trying it out on inherited players who don’t suit it.
But the problem is, we haven’t seen anything to suggest that this system will work.
It worked years ago at Huddersfield for a couple of seasons but has failed at every club he’s been at since. In the past three months, it has been an abject disaster. and Wagner is nothing if not stoically loyal to his system. Plan B is not an option.
Can we honestly say that the kind of refresh required for this flat and demoralised club will be possible under this manager and his ailing system?
Has the fast pace of tactical evolution caught up with this style of play and already rendered it obsolete?
I’m loathed to suggest yet another change of manager – Wagner hasn’t had an opportunity to deploy players that can play his way or had a full pre-season to really drill it into the players – but I can’t escape the feeling that if we go into August with a few cosmetic personnel changes still playing this brand of football, all we’re doing is giving the head coach a few more games to prove that this doesn’t work before the (now annual) firing, leaving another head coach to come in and pick up more broken pieces of a team in freefall.
Lambert evolved a squad of players by giving them something tactically new and fresh. He took them away from a losing mindset and memories of failures past.
In a short space of time, Wagner has not only reinforced the losing mindset they had under Smith but shown them the limitations of his own tactical tweaks and created new negative connotations to go along with them.
If anything, the longer he’s been able to work with the players, the worse their understanding of what they’re being asked to do has seemingly become.
I hate the idea of becoming Watford, but I’m rapidly coming to the conclusion that Webber’s real test is not whether he can find another set of players good enough to be successful in the Championship, but whether he can be as ruthless as McNally and sack a recently appointed manager who has already shown he is out of his depth.
The cosy club wins nothing.
Well, that’s ruined my early morning walk. The trouble is, it’s very hard to argue with. Smith was a bad appointment. Is Wagner?
It’s going to be years before we’re competitive, isn’t it?
They will give Wagner the chance, even though 1 win in 10 means he should be removed as soon as the final whistle blows. We have gone from within a shout under a manager that didn’t care to a team better than only one other in the division with players that should be able to grind out some results at the very least. Wagner, Webber, the Smiths and the US version of self funding model need to leave us alone.
Fans that believe there aren’t suitors out there are seriously devoid of rational thinking in a world of billionaires looking to become footballing gods. The tired argument of location is embarrassing when clubs in the proverbial bottom end of nowhere are being bought. NCFC will never succeed whilst we are incapable of thinking through the basics and calling the owners out on it in a public and en masse.
Absolutely spot on, Doug King is a life long Norwich fan who’s just taken over Coventry, be interesting to find out if Smith and Jones did the Peter Cullen on him?
King was asked if he had tried to buy city and he said he had on a couple of occasions but didn’t meet the criteria of the owners but I can’t find the details anywhere.
It’s easy to say such things
Interesting analysis, Andy.
While not disagreeing with you, I’m open to seeing what David Wagner can do with an active transfer window and a full pre-season to instil his mental, physical and tactical requirements in the players. I remember his Huddersfield sides: uninspiring before he had the opportunities of a window and pre-season, then a much-changed team radiating energy and belief (that’s to say, exactly what the current City squad is lacking).
If we’re to give Wagner that chance, it has to be Stuart Webber beside him. We know from two clubs – Huddersfield and Norwich – that he doesn’t shy away from a major overhaul of playing staff when it’s needed. Right or wrong, Wagner and Webber are on the same wavelength.
Then we’ll know whether the Huddersfield miracle can be repeated. I simply don’t know – but I’d give it a shot.
No chance both should go
I’d say the current situation is worse than the one Lambert inherited.
The club has lost not only the supporters but also the local press.
We have no money and owners who cannot or will not invest.
We have lost our talent spotters so if we find any money we’ll probably waste it again.
Why did I renew my season ticket knowing this lot were in charge!
But we do have wealthy americans who are buying an increasingly large stake in the club and who the current owners relate to and approve of. If their interest continues then hopefully money and structure will follow. I gave up my season ticket in the season that Alex Neill was fired and DF appointed. It was mid table misery then too. The following season was one of the best the club has ever seen. !!! The local press fallout sounds as though it was mainly caused by them being too keen to report the interest from America that SW had asked them specifically to keep under wraps. Their revenge seems to be the downbeat outlook they now have about any hope for this club that we all love, in the future. If Raschica moves to Burnley for the reported fee and Maddison to one of the top four as seems likely, we get rid of some obvious deadwood and get a few in on loan who can play Wagners high energy game maybe the future isn’t as bleak as it currently feels. SW and the press patching up their differences would certainly help too. Us fans just want to see a good style of football and players who want to be here, show fight and determination in every game and justify their considerable salaries.
What money comes in will service our owners lack of investment.
Regarding the Americans judging from what Brewers fans are seeing they appear to run on a self funding basis so I wouldn’t hold your breath on that one.
If we do end up with any money who is going to locate the talent to spend it on?
How do you know Americans are buying in big time ,and will they invest big time no didn’t think so
The recent ‘investment’ was to offset the loan repayment when the board borrowed against the TV rights for next season. It was a Webber gamble which failed. The number of shares gives you the clue. Up until that point USA had only taken preference shares which have no righting votes. Its different now once the ordinary shares get registered and USA is on the board. Like other though I don’t expect massive cash injections, the Brewers are hardly a top notch team. They missed the post season this year for the first time in a long while, Similarities I guess. Mr 90% needs to go if Delia want’s to rekindle the dying embers of original goodwill she got from rescuing the team.
Yes JohnF, I would agree that we really are in a complete mess and I can see another foray into League 1 if SW and DW mess up the transfer window. We are so toothless when we get near goal, it’s embarrassing. Without checking, I’m sure in our list 3 games, we’ve had fewer than 10 shots actually on target!!
I was hoping that Idah could ‘step up to the plate’, but more often than not, his first touch is atrocious and doesn’t seem to have improved this season. 🙁 ⚽
You ask for a McNally type, then go soft and say to keep Webber.
At one point our goal (which has since been backtracked on) was PL survival on a 5 year plan.
That’s not been achieved and it won’t be next season either. The absolute earliest is 8 years into his tenure, but there’s zero evidence to suggest he can ever achieve it.
So if you want a ruthless McNally, why would you keep Webber. He introduces more problems than he solves.
Hi Andy
Interesting take on Lambert – his success as a manager relates to one club Norwich.
This is his club record:
Livingston 24 games 0.50ppm
Wycombe 108 games 1.51ppm
Colchester 42 games 1.41ppm
Norwich 140 games 1.76ppm
Aston Villa 115 games 1,11ppm
Blackburn 33 games 1.33ppm
Wolves 33 games 1.42 ppm
Stoke 15 games 0.87 ppm
Ipswich 111 games 1.24ppm
His management career peaked at City when his head coach was Ian Culverhouse but that career started to slip once the partnership broke up after rumours of bullying at Villa came out.
Lambert arrived at Wycombe where Culverhouse was coach and when he left for Colchester he took him and their analytical man (Gary Karsa – Ed) with them.
It always reminds me of the Clough/Taylor partnership – great at Derby for both, Brighton they never took off and Leeds after they split was a disaster. Off to Forest – really poor, then they got back as a team and promotion, titles, Cup and Europe all conquered and then Taylor retired and Forest went into slow decline.
Was Culverhouse the spark for Lambert like Taylor was to Clough?
Isn’t Wagner on a rolling contract though?If so give him the boot straight after the final whistle next monday.If Derby dont go up Warne might be a good shout to replace him.
Great idea – best idea to date.
Hi Andy
I’m not one to hob-nob with the top brass in any situation but coincidentally came across David McNally on two occasions and must say he was a complete gentleman and a pleasure to speak with.
The first time he had not long been in situ and I said something dumb like *thanks David, your Mr Lambert’s doing very well so far* and he was full of bounce, optimism and most certainly on a mission.
I later bumped into him in Coltishall where I was living at the time and again had what I’d call a *good chat* so i never personally discovered where he got his reputation for being brusque from.
The Lambert tenure for me was up there with the days of Bayern and Inter, it really was.
I’d have both PL and McNally back in a shot as those were happy days until the inevitable row about £££ for the recruitment of two strikers ended them.
Thanks for a good read.
100% agree with this lambert without culverhouse is a busted flush
Morning Martin – good read mate. I don’t think McNally had to be persuaded to sack Gunn after 1-7 defeat to Colchester. I was walking down Carrow Road alongside McNally and, I assume, a young daughter with him. Fans were giving him dogs abuse – totally disgusting I’m afraid – so I wasn’t surprised Gunny got sacked. If people can’t have a meaningful conversation then don’t bother.
Sorry meant Andy.
I honestly think the club needs a total reboot and will not get it with the current regime.
Might be worth our while to do a Man Utd and invite bidders but of course that won’t happen without – a total reboot including the current regime.
Might be better with Attanasio, then again, if he was approached initially to fix the club’s current and looming financial woes (which is what his companies do), buying in with £10m is good due diligence.
I don’t know of many parochial clubs who have created long-term success, but that is where our DNA has been anchored for oh so very long! Its not a bad thing to want to engage the ‘local’ atmosphere of the club, but if that’s the desired aim of the regime, why has the regime closed the door – and their minds – to the ‘local’ fanbase?
To be fair, although I thought the McNally/Lambert years were exciting, I honestly believe the Webber/Farke years were far, far more so – and they were the kind of years I so wish we were replicating now, swashbuckling football, never-say-die attitude, wild, outrageous success!
I feel almost as sorry for the players as I do the fans, because it must be the worst day job in the world to go out there game after game and fail – especially when there are a lot of gifted players in the squad – the failure we’ve seen this season suggests to me the disconnect is not just with the fans, it is with the players too. Only one cure for that really!
Things really need to, and have to, change!
Finally – congratulations to Plymouth Argyle for an exciting season – I hope they beat Port Vale next Sunday and lift the L1 trophy – can’t be many better feelings than that!
Andy, a lot of great articles this season, cheers!
COYYs !!
Farke played some great Football in The Championship and I’ll never forget the Man City game, but come on, three out of five seasons were turgid.
Lambert went from the bottom of League 1, to PL safety in three seasons, with Wes and Holty terrorizing defenders in each of those leagues. It fell apart shortly afterwards, of course, but they achieved more in less time than Farke/Webber.
Hi David,
Okay you’ve got me there as I was actually talking about the two Championship promotion seasons – definitely not the two Premiership seasons.
But I’ ll stick to my guns because I really did enjoy Farke’s Championship promotion seasons to Lambert’s brand … nothing against the McNally/Lambert partnership, or the great players, results etcetera that they produced – Jeez, we even had our version of Fergie Time, with some really exciting ends of games.
Different strokes for different folks, I guess!
Personally I think wagner can’t fix the problems and webber should be removed but none of that’s going to happen sadly
Wagner will not unreasonably point out that in the early days of his tenure he rebuilt the side based on much improved output from Dowell and Onel, backed up by the solid experience of Gibson (ahead of Omo), Hanley and McLean. Every one of those then got injured, only Onel has returned. Saying a manager is “out of his depth” in those circumstances seems a bit hasty to me.
As for McNally – like Webber nobody much liked him, and as soon as we fell out of the PL everybody immediately forget everything he achieved and demanded he leave, exactly as is happening now. It was, then, a classic case of “Careful what you wish for”, and it is now.
Well probably get a Moxey/Roeder type reset.
It really is unbelievable that people still want to give Stuart Webber a chance and his 2nd poorly thought out knee jerk appointment . It’s worrying the little click going on Zoe Webber & Stuart & his old pal Mr Wagner, it really is to the detriment of the club .
It would be something if he could admit his mistakes and actually recruit a decent recruitment team as he is very clearly out of his depth in this department , but he isn’t going to do that is he .
More money will be wasted on players and managers so where does it stop ???
Yep, a complete reboot needed without doubt.
Money is not everything at this level, it very much depends on who control the purse strings.
Take three teams in the playoff position who probably had less in total in their budgets than Norwich City. Coventry, Millwall and for heaven sake, Luton.
Looking at the hurdles Coventry had to overcome at the start of the season, it seems we missed a trick in not getting Mark Robins as manager. He has worked a miracle,
Webber surrounds himself with yes men and Robins and others wouldn’t except him forcing players on the Farke, Smith and Wagner have or will just tow the Webber line.
Hughes coaching career was kicked started at Huddersfield by Webber prior to Wagner’s arrival and continued, he had no future under the Crawley brothers so Webber recruited him in to assist Adams on our loans out.
Kieran Scott was heir apparent to Webber until his wife got on the board and Adams was moved up from loans to assist Sport Director – Scott knew his time was up so took the Middlesbrough job.
Since them our European head of recruitment left for Brighton, the head of Data analysis has left for Newcastle – who will ship out next? Not the Webbers’ anyone that was interested must have run scared and how many tales our out there in the confines of the football world
I don’t think the club can see the wood through the trees at the moment !
For me Andy, IF Delia and Michael suddenly decided to sail off into the sunset (Fat Chance) and IF Stuart Webber got the call from Chelsea or Sir Ranulph Fiennes and left, I would go along wholeheartedly with a complete reset and get behind the new owners on their pick of the new coach.
However it is that word “IF” again. And neither of those two things above are likely to happen anytime soon. In a perfect world SW would realise his time is up and venture forth on his next career move. Just cannot see it yet.
So as things stand I am with Stewart Lewis. Let’s see what David Wagner can do with a full pre-season and a summer’s recruitment.
I know it is what most fans do not want to hear and I really get that. But I am hoping now we are basically brassic we may look at the British market again, just as McNally and Lambert did where there maybe some bargains to be had.
Although as I say we are skint, thanks to the borrowing of the parachute payments, we should still remain competitive to a certain extent on wages.
We will have some income from the sales of Max Aarons and Gabriel Sara probably and the inevitable percentage for the sale of James Maddison from Leicester. Along hopefully with some investment from the Attanasio family.
We really are between a rock and a hard place, even the ditching of Stuart Webber will still mean that Delia and Michael are in charge, so would things change that much? I doubt it.
Ruthless we are not. I remember when we got relegated under Alex Neill and Ed Balls – when we actually had a Chairman – wanted Neill sacked as he wanted to start afresh for next season. Delia refused.
We all know how the following season went.
While part of me is intrigued what Wagner could do with his own squad, I’m not overly confident and being anything but independent to our Sporting Director doesn’t inspire confidence.
While anyone connected to the club certainly shouldn’t have the self entitlement to assume automatic promotion, the way the club is structured and run is deeply unhealthy which even non league clubs would baulk at.
We’re all responsible in a very small way as the club has had virtually no pressure from the fans.
The most unorthodox board in living memory are not serving us well.
We must all remember that.
Sacking Gunn was a bold but clearly necessary move by McNally but equally important was the move to recruit Lambert. A progressive bright young coach on the up. McNally identified the best man for the job and went and got him despite causing ill feeling with his employers at the time Colchester. He did the same thing with some success in getting Alex Neil here. Now we restrict ourselves to who is available out of work which inevitably means we are recruiting a manager/coach who has been dismissed, has become disillusioned, cautious, and cynical. I accept there is an added cost to headhunting a manager in post but what is it costing us long term not getting the best possible fit?
I posted when Dean Smith went that we should try to get McKenna, it would have brought its own baggage but he fitted the bill….too late now for that particular scenario,
Steve;
When we sacked Farke, Smith was still gainfully employed by Villa.
All through his tenure Webber has insisted that he has “cover” for any position/situation which may/will occur….so, how come Dean Smith ended up at Carrow Road?
Unless Webber got the inside track of what Villa were up to from his ex-Liverpool chum Purslow…and surely that is totally unethical??
O T B C