I don’t want it to. I think David Wagner is a lovely guy and actually a decent coach. But I think his style of football won’t work here.
Here’s why.
While there are a million different tactical formations, (base or transitional), there are only three distinct footballing philosophies employed among the vast majority of clubs these days.
The first and most basic is the direct or long ball approach, or “hoofball” to give it its unofficial title. No judgement here – whatever works for you – but it’s the least favoured option of supporters aesthetically and as such usually only used by teams struggling to compete with superior opponents.
The two other prevailing philosophies of the time are those of possession-based football, or of counter-pressing, aka the Gegenpress.
Possession-based football is Tika-Taka. It’s Barcelona. It’s Pep Guardiola. And in Norwich terms, it was Daniel Farke.
Gegenpress is “Heavy Metal Football”. It’s pressing the opposition to death and countering quickly. It’s Jurgen Klopp. And in Norwich terms, it’s David Wagner.
Both have pluses and minuses, and it’s in those details that I think Wagner could be doomed to failure.
Possession-based football has famously been hugely successful for Norwich at Championship level under Daniel Farke. Yet in the Premier League, it felt unsustainable and unfit for purpose.
I think the reason for that is that in the Championship, Norwich are a relatively big club. The natural state of affairs is for teams to come to Carrow Road in hope rather than anticipation, and be more likely to be pragmatic and cede possession. Therefore, with the right additions of technically-capable players who can keep the ball and create, a team like Norwich should be successful in this league, and they have been.
However, in the Premier League, their technical players are suddenly inferior to the vast majority of teams. The expectation is then that they’ll go from having the majority of possession in the Championship to having the minority in the Premier League.
The patient build-up looks increasingly risky with every pass as the most tenacious midfielders on the planet snap into the tackle and press you to death. And the high-line needed to keep the ball in the opposition’s half and create chances around the box is increasingly susceptible to counter-attacks and the quickest and most deadly strikers in the world bursting into the space behind that high-line.
Teams that are promoted and are possession-based tend therefore to struggle a lot more in the Premier League than those who play direct football, or the Gegenpress.
Gegenpress, on the other hand, is much more suited to teams promoted to the Premier League. Out of possession, Gegenpress teams quickly get behind the ball, making it difficult for the opposition to break them down. As long as they’re organised they become hard to score against and therefore hard to beat.
However, they may find it difficult to score themselves, as Premier League teams have technically adept players who are generally comfortable on the ball and don’t often turn it over in bad areas.
When they do, your attacking players not only have to be tenacious enough to harry the opposition into a mistake in the first place, but they also have to be quick enough to take advantage of the situation and lethal enough to take the chance when presented.
It’s the kind of formation that can win you a few 1-0 games and get enough points on the board to keep you up at the end of the season.
It’s a sad testament to how modern football works that scraping enough 1-0 wins to stay up in the PL is probably the limit of Norwich’s realistic ambitions, but there we are.
So from that point of view, Wagnerball makes sense for Norwich as a long-term project. Already this off-season we have seen a better defensive shape than last year, albeit yet to be tested in the heat of proper battle, but the signs are good.
The problem is at the other end in terms of creating and scoring goals.
The strikers have to be really efficient in taking chances because they’re less plentiful than when your team is dominating possession. I’m not saying Josh Sargent and Ashley Barnes can’t be that cutting edge, but neither have prolific goalscoring records or the rapid pace that usually would flourish in a Gegenpress attack.
They will however be great in terms of pressing the opposition, and, with the Andrew Omobamidele money, we could potentially buy a striker with that pace and finishing record.
However, chance creation is the real issue. You can’t rely on opposition mistakes alone to create your chances, so you need your midfielders and full-backs to have technical ability on the ball, strong positional awareness, and the engine to get up and down and press like crazy when out of possession.
And that’s where the real heart of the problem is.
There aren’t that many players who can do all of those things. Those that can are hoovered up by the big clubs, or at least those in the Premier League.
Trying to get a fullback who is good on the ball, can create chances, while being positionally sound, and who can press, at a Championship club? Good luck.
Now try to get two, plus capable backups for both. And then stock the midfield and wide areas with similar.
Because of those demands, it’s way more difficult to make Gegenpress work in the Championship than possession-Based football. In the Championship, with possession-Based football, you can play an Alex Tettey in midfield knowing he won’t contribute much in terms of possession, and his sole job is screening the defence.
Then you stack technical players around him to open the opposition up, and, within reason, they don’t have to be great defensively because you’ve got Tettey and the back four to do that, and you’re under less pressure because you have the ball the majority of the time anyway. You can buy players who excel in one specific area only.
With Gegenpress they have to be good in several, and we don’t have the money or the cache to acquire those players. That’s why Gegenpress is usually much more successful in the top leagues who can afford the very best players than it is in the lower leagues.
Gabriel Sara, Kenny McLean, Marcelino Nunez and Liam Gibbs are all good players and they each have admirable individual attributes but do they have that all round game, and can they marry defensive solidity with sufficient cutting edge to create from deep?
Occasionally yes, no doubt, but consistently enough to win a lot of games?
And you also need to have full-backs and wingers with those qualities too. Again, a lot of good players, but not a lot with the all-round game to make it work.
I’d love to be proved wrong, but I can’t see a scenario where we can make this system work. I can see a few 0-0s happening certainly, but Wagner is already on borrowed time after last season and that won’t cut it.
There’s a reason we haven’t scored at Carrow Road since February.
And while we can hope that we can generate a transfer kitty from potential player sales, the time needed for those incoming players to adapt to the system (and possibly even the country) is likely to be way in excess of the time we can afford to Wagner if he continues to be unable to field a team that can create and convert chances.
Hi Andy
An excellent analysis of what might be to come.
I said a few times in comment that the recruitment is a shambles due mainly to Webber still being in place, rumours are that Leeds are in talks for him to join once the transfer window shuts as Hammond is a short term fill in and leaves on the 1st Oct.
The situation then comes who’s going to be SD, taking on a squad he hasn’t had a Scooby in recruiting and possibly a coach and backroom team that might need replacing sooner than later.
Any SD worth his salt will stay clear of city with that sort of mess, Will the club be able to pay compensation to clear the decks and possibly bring in a new head coach, all this should have been sorted once Webber resigned but yet again a board to slow to react.
Webber said on his arrival the club will establish up so that any coach coming inwill be compliant with said system and players would be recruited for said system, yet after sacking Farke Dean Smith who was the complete opposite was given the job and now Wagner who is trying to build his own team with freebies.
Nothing is working from top to bottom, confusing statement on recruitment Webber we sell before we buy, Wagner we don’t need to sell to buy so which is it.
The big question is will Webber be around to replace Wagner and Co or will it be some poor SD that’s just walked through the door??
Maybe you should go for the job then and show us how its done
I really am fed up with so much negativity before a ball has even been kicked! We don’t know what the standard of opposition will be, indeed we don’t know what our team will be!!
I never knew that there were so many gifted armchair analysts around.
Ok let’s not bother with football this season as it’s bound to be a disaster!!!
A really interesting read Andy, thank you.
I think you’re spot on with your three tactical analyses, but I hope you’re wrong about how it will fare for Wagner!
Nice to see yet another positive article from the people of My Football Writer.
The offer still stands, ‘Big Vince’ – there a page here awaiting 800-1000 words of positivity from your good self.
Gary, I get you are feeling irked by comments such as this but in this case I think the comment is fair and aimed square, The article itself is good but the headline is the issue. Whether that is Andy’s or whether MFW write the headlines I don’t know. I think with a less conclusive (negative) headline it would have raised far less objections and accusations of “another let’s bash Norwich article by MFW”.
That’s on me… not Andy. Noted.
Good to also see that the Happy Clappers continue to read and chip in!
“They will however be great in terms of pressing the opposition, and, with the Andrew Omobamidele money, we could potentially buy a striker with that pace and finishing record. ” Has there been some development here ? apart from rumored interest from AC Milan and Crystal Palace? With Tomkinson out injured now as well , if Omobamidele is sold, would only leave 2 fit CB’s for season start ..
I generally don’t read too much into pre season game results , but having watched the performances to date , no sign of that “Gegenpress ” .. still look a lot like the Team that was too easy to play through and gives the opposition way too much time and space on the ball , when Wagner took over , 4 points outside the Playoff positions last season. Yes, 2 clean sheets , last 2 games .. but better teams would have punished such performances . No sign of any ideas going forward , all still too predictable and sluggish , no one capable of bit of creativity in midfield, 2nd half, watched Sargeant make several great runs in behind the FC Kaiserslautern defence only to throw his arms in the air, when the pass never came … Inclined to give Wagner benefit of time to get his ideas across , but more in hope than any expected results. Mid Table would be a good result come next May . OTBC .
It‘s gegenpress for me. Farkeball worked when Pukki was in form and was supplied by a skilful midfield plus of course Tettey, none of which we have. It‘s time for a change. Gegenpress only results in low scoring when up against world class opposition and possession football fails completely when poorly played. The biggest plus with Wagner is his recruitment of determined and passionate players which has been sadly lacking in recent times.
Solid analysis Andy.
Your point about players not being good enough is far more pertinent than the tactical formation that we adopt. Last season we had a squad only good enough to finished 13th. This season’s squad will be weaker. Regardless of manager or tactics, these players won’t be playing PL football in the 2024/25 season.
It’s such a shame that there are no consequences for the owners when the team fails to meet their target of being a top 26 club, because they are the root of all our problems.
Really? It’s a rollercoaster being a Norwich fan, but a bit of optimism early doors isn’t going to hurt.
Vintage canary.
Hello Andy,
Thank you for putting the article together. I have to disagree with your general crux, as it misses the most important ingredient in all of this…Coaching.
I would like to draw your attention to the 2016-17 season where Wagner was coaching Huddersfield Town in his second season. At the start of that season, they were favourites for the drop, yet won promotion to the PL. Wagner had already been there half way through their previous season where he struggled for results, very similar parallels with our last season. I remember watching his Huddersfield Town team absolutely destroying us at CR that season, with exactly the tactics you said we can’t implement with our current personnel.
Don’t forget that when his methods first came in to effect, we were flying out of the blocks. The game against Coventry being a prime example.
Based on the evidence of his previous tenure, I would say he needs a preseason with players to implement his methods efficiently. The signings this summer are exactly the type of players we need to implement this style of football. Creatively, I believe Sara and Nunez will be fantastic this season. Of that, I have no doubt.
The players we’re currently missing look like a DM and a ST. I’m sure the powers that be at CR know this already.
So let’s see how they get on when a balls been kicked before we already expecting them to fail. That’s a very negative way to look at sport, which is very disappointing to see.
On another note, I noticed Daniel Farke’s mural has been painted over at the Fat Cat and Canary. I sincerely hope this was due to vandalism and not because he’s now manager of Leeds. IMO that mural should always be there.
A fair assessment of our current state which in my view is ‘in transition ‘,. It’s not negative to be honest, and if you are honest then it is clear this season will be more challenging than last as the opposition will be of a higher calibre, not only from the relegated premier teams but all three promoted team are no mugs, each one is on a par with us….at least in size and support. But, we do have some decent Championship level players including new, and welcome additions like Duffy and Stacey. But we….as do other teams have some bang average players, unfortunately for us this comprises the whole front line especially Idah who IMHO is barely a decent Div 1 or even 2 striker. Teams get promoted on scoring goals, and our front line will scare nobody.
Time to unload Idah while he has some value. I don’t see him fitting in with his poor touch.
Last season, we were in the fight to finish in the top 6 until McLean, Hanley and Gibson were I jured and out for the rest of the season and we were putting out the youngest team we’ve had this century, none of whom had been recruited for Wagner all.
The freebies, as you put it, are all experienced in both the top leagues and their impact has shown already, making us stronger in both defence and attack. Rowe and Placheta have returned from injury like new players.
Much will depend on who else comes in and how well they will adapt to Wagnerball, but it Wagner made it work at Huddersfield in both leagues, Brentford have surprised everybody using a similar style of play, so it is possible for us or others to do the same under Wagner. Certainly he aims to make us the fittest team in the Championship, so that should help as well. It won’t be easy, but I’m not going to write off our chances before the season even begins.
Another half glass full post. I’m frankly fed up of MFW knocking he club at any given chance. We all know you’ve been snubbed by the Club, but to keep banging on such negativity is pointless.
The article is purely click-bait with a “told you so” mentality. We all know A Head has an agenda anyway . . . . . . . . . . . . . good luck in hoping for failure Andy. Classy. NOT !
Jeez, if I had as little hope and enthusiasm for the forthcoming season, I think I’d find something else to do on a Saturday……
I don’t particularly have much faith in Wagner but the tone of the article is actually the opposite of what is stated in the headline. With Farkeball we were doomed to fail in the long run but with Gegenpress we might do a Brentford or Palace.
Let’s get on the managers back before the season even starts….
Pathetic!!!!
Get down to the training ground and show em how to do it then……
We could do a man City and pay to win games for millions
I enjoyed the read, I have not much faith in Wagner, his past record is quite poor. Already it is being said in the local media that the creating of chances has a flashing warning light on already. A bit early for me, hopefully, that creative midfielder may be found in the next few days which is sorely needed.
I am waiting to see how we go when the kick off starts, trying to keep my concerns down and hoping to be proved wrong
Lots of positive fans on here,did they watch the last couple of months of last season?So far three freebie signings is not going to make much difference to the team,and a lack of no DM and no new AM wont help either.Perhaps you positive fans know something i dont.
Personally I don’t like the idea of hitching our wagon to one type of play. It’s why I was always less enthusiastic about the Farke regime than many. It looked great under certain circumstances, dramatically fell apart under others (a key player injury, or clearly well prepared opponents). When you signpost to other teams your intent on how you’ll set up and play, you’re giving them chance to prep to stop you. It requires being soo good at that style, that despite your opponents best efforts, you simply outclass them. That could be a struggle with this squad in the Championship and near impossible in the Prem.
I don’t care what Wagner plays, but it has to achieve two simple goals:
1) Be hard to beat.
2) Look threatening on the break.
Those two simple ideas have underpinned all my favorite Norwich teams. The lack of #1 has haunted us for a decade.
I’ll keep my powder dry, there are many reasons to be positive including our free transfers which to me are all good acquisitions, especially Duffy. There’s still a way to go for the end of the window and with Sara still in the building and with the form of Gibbs I hope another decent striker could be the difference, it’s going to be a tight season but we are in the mix