Two years ago my family left Massachusetts and relocated to South West Florida to live in a ‘master planned’ community: a new town, being created from scratch, with 2,000 residents growing to an eventual 40,000.
Construction is everywhere, with miles of palm-lined roads awaiting houses, shops, parks, and schools. In ‘founders square’ there’s a welcome center containing a 10ft by 4ft map of the planned layout. It’s public, it’s clear, and it’s reassuring.
I’m a big fan of plans.
Which leads me to our club.
Only two games in and the squad looks fitter, happier, motivated, better drilled, and with a clearer style of play than anything we’ve seen in two seasons. The Hull game had me nervous, but despite the end result, the Southampton game was a riot.
Sure, I’m not convinced about David Wagner’s insistence that we play it out from the back, but that’s just my personal taste.
For the most part, our incomings this season have had a positive impact and mostly fit the bill of players I’d wanted in the past. Those with experience of the English leagues tend to have strong personalities and a fighting spirit – the opposite of many signings under Daniel Farke.
So, all very positive and I suspect we could be a dark horse this season, upsetting a lot of bookies.
I watched the Southampton game on my tablet while washing dishes using pots of water boiled on the stove.
An over-eager construction worker using an overly-large piece of machinery had broken the main water pipe. We were under a ‘boil water notice’. Someone hadn’t followed the schematics, someone hadn’t followed the plan. The townsfolk were furious for a while but understood it was merely a small price to pay for the beautiful town being created around us.
Communication is key.
Which leads me, once again, back to our club.
Six years under Stuart Webber and I’m still no clearer on our master plan. There’s no map. There are no roads being laid, or if they are, they end up as dirt tracks. On occasion there is talk of a goal, sometimes Premier League stability, sometimes promotion, sometimes top twenty-six.
Only one of those goals pays the bills.
As I mentioned, I’m happy with the incoming players, but they’re only good signings if promotion is obtained. As I’ve written many times before, Championship football leads our club to substantial (20-30M quid) losses every season.
I thought our goal was to sign young players, benefit from their raw talent for two to three years, and sell at deficit-filling profits.
But that hasn’t worked.
In the past year, we’ve seen Bali Mumba, Max Aarons, Kieran Dowell, and Todd Cantwell leave for a combined fee of around 10M (with hopefully some add-ons). That surely wasn’t the plan.
Webber infamously said on a podcast that Cantwell was worth over 30M, Mumba was a Young Player of the Year, Aarons linked with mega clubs, and Dowell was considered a hot prospect. But all gone for little more than the price of Tzolis.
Always consider what we’ve paid for players vs what we received for Aarons as a barometer for our transfer strategy success. Again, it’s worth noting that in six years, the only player of any real value that Webber has signed and sold was Emi Buendia (Aarons not being a Webber signing).
We may yet sell big Andy Omobamidele, but will he cover the cost of a Josh Sargent or a Milot Rashica? Hopefully.
Again, I like the look of Ashley Barnes, Jack Stacey, Shane Duffy, and Christian Fassnacht as players but they’re in their late 20s or over, and their potential sell-on values are limited.
These players, three or four years younger, would be spectacular signings. As it stands there’s an opportunity cost of playing these new signings and not growing young talent with profit potential.
Surely that wasn’t the plan. So what is?
An unpopular figure ’round these parts once said the goal was “promotion, promotion, and promotion”. In the absence of a big map, a master plan, or any clear type of communication, our best hope remains meeting Jez’s goals.
We may yet achieve promotion, at least we’ll be scoring goals and entertaining. That’s a vast improvement.
I’d just feel a lot more reassured if I also understood the plan.
Yesterday we were informed that our potential new majority shareholders was at the game the first time since November.
The Pink-un reported below everyone in attendance except Stuart Webber.
Attanasio watched on alongside City’s majority shareholders Delia Smith and Michael Wynn Jones. Zoe Webber, Neil Adams and Bryan Gunn were also located in the directors’ box.
His son Mike and wife Deborah were sat alongside him – with it understood they flew to England following a holiday to Italy earlier last week.
This was a missed opportunity for said investors to outline a plan but no interview was forth coming and the paper announced that they left infused by the city result how can you report such a statement without at least a little small talk from them.
Again the club as a whole have missed the chance to engage the supporters in up coming events, the only plan I see is wait and see what comes tomorrow.
A lack of foresight is one thing but the lack of hindsight to not see what they have done wrong and how they could do better is very poor judgement on their part.
Things look better on the playing side, the transfer window is still open and city will only sell if their price is meet but that price is flexible meaning anything is acceptable just look at Aarons priced at £20m plus yet sold for half that, Omobamidele last January valued at over £20m plus yet the club’s supposed to be in talks with Milan for a deal that could reach €15m again half his value this is asset stripping to cover a big black hole.
Webber leave before there’s only the kitchens ink left
I agree that we want to hear more from our US investors. They’re smart folk and must know their absence has been conspicuous.
On the upside, it appears the TNC boys have snagged an interview with Zoe Webber. Make it a good one lads!
Hi Dave
A good read about construction Stateside – thanks 🙂
I’m sure the ACN boys will try their hardest so good luck to ’em from me too!
I suspect the Attanasios would very much like to talk to us about their vision and plans. Sadly they’re constrained from doing so while their acquisition of the new share issue is still being rubber-stamped by the financial authorities.
As for Stuart Webber’s plan to invest in young talent, it continues. Somewhat under the radar, we’ve added our development squad this summer as well as bringing in Fisher and Sainz. But the first push was clearly to boost the squad’s mental strength and resilience, whose lack was so painful last season. Prioritising the kind of signings we clearly needed for that – Barnes, Stacey, Duffy – was arguably a divergence from the strategy, though not a departure from it.
An acknowledgment of shortcomings in previous transfer windows? Yes, as openly admitted by Webber. But I, for one, am thankful for the pragmatism and flexibility to correct it.
UK share issues UK private company. Usually ,2-3 days to complete.
That’s from intention of issue, board meeting to agree to issue , completion of forms and filing at companies House.
Now whatever could be causing the delay.
Not quite true – the variation in approval timing for such deals (even just within the football business) is huge.
The new issue was exactly structured for the Attanasios being the buyer, bringing their holding level with D&M’s. There’s no reason to think or suggest that either side is having cold feet – rather the opposite, all signs pointing to an amicable relationship.
So the number of new shares was based purely on the Attanasios being able to achieve parity with Delia and Michael?
Talk about managing expectations, if you’re expecting MA to become majority shareholders any time soon, you’re going to be disappointed. The proposed number of new shares simply don’t add up to a majority, not unless the current majority shareholders part with some of their shares too.
Hi Gary
So we will have no changes and a club that is stagnating due to lack of investment and a senior employee predicting all will be reveal in short order.
As soon as the deal is rubber=stamped, Delia and Michael are no longer majorly shareholders. It’s clearly not the final step, but its significance – inc for how decisions are made in the club – shouldn’t be underestimated.
“No changes”? I don’t think so.
The Club’s website indicates that MA leads a group of investors who have 21% of the existing shareholdings. If all 194,512 of the proposed new shares are allotted to MA, this will increase the total number of shares by 24%, which, as alluded to above, is insufficient for a new majority shareholding.
So, just to make sure I’ve got this right(ish), Gaz (I’m easily confused 😀 )
Based on them now having a 21% stake (616913 x 0.21) that equates to 129,552. (The 21% must presumably be based on the original 16% plus 5% of *extras* they have hoovered up?)
And then, with the additional 194,512 that would take them up to 324,064.
So, with the *new* share total being 811,425, that would give them a 40% stake (324,064/811,425) – virtually the same as D&M?
The exact number of minority shares acquired last September has yet to be fully disclosed, although is likely to be so within the paperwork that will accompany the notice of the next general meeting.
That said, your numbers are in the right ballpark, parity seems to be the likely order of the day, presuming that shareholder approval is given to the proposals.
The most salient point in this affair, is that the new shareholding triggers the Attanasios to be able to buy further existing shares from smaller shareholders, at the issue price of the new shares. They would then, depending on how successful their offer was, be able to acquire a majority shareholding – at the very least becoming the largest shareholders – giving them effective control, with the backing of (for example) the Norwich City Football Supporters Trust.
Delia and Michael could, of course, also sell them 5% of the club, to enable them to have overall control.
I also believe we are not a Private Company, but a Public Limited Company, which moves the goalposts significantly – not to mention the need for the Attanasio investment group having to satisfy the proper ownership tests of the EFL.
Patience is still called for.
Cheers for that, Chris. Useful info.
Chris, you are absolutely correct, NCFC is a public limited company, rather than a private limited company. This does have regulatory implications, hence one of the reasons for the subsequent delay in the shares actually being allotted.
Fair to say we are still paying a heavy price for Webber’s gambles to subsidise the current owners.
I’m quite happy with Wagner as he’s probably the best available successor to Farke.
My only doubts are the failure to find a Skipp replacement in central midfield and the possible sale of Andy who is badly needed to replace Gibson.
The mayor does his best but he is well short of what is required to give us the defensive security to mount a serious challenge for promotion.
Let’s also hope Sara slips under the premier league radar!
Hi Dave, yesterday’s game was great, hopefully a lot more of that to come. A significant change from the last two seasons. I think plans are afoot and will be communicated when the EFL takeover rules and confidentiality clauses allow. It’s easy to forget the really good things that Stuart Webber has done for the club and he should be given credit for that, equally he has to take the criticism on the chin. For now the only plan that we can help with is to “ March on together “. ( sorry to any Leeds fans for nicking your catchphrase.)
Regards Andy
Hey Andrew,
I struggle with “the really good things Stuart Webber has done for the club” for what are reasons probably boring to most.
Generally any well run business has a goal, a strategy, and tactics to achieve them. As I see it, Webber has implemented a lot of tactics, but lacks a clear goal or strategy. Tactics exist to serve a strategy (otherwise you’re just doing busy work), but they are not a strategy in themselves.
Let’s start at the goal. What is it? PL survival, top 22, or top 26 teams. If the answer is ‘depends on the season’. We don’t have a goal. You can’t run a business like that.
The fact we don’t have a goal means, we don’t have a strategy. If the strategy is to be a top 26 club through self funding off academy player trading, creating top class cat 1 academy makes total sense. If PL survival is the goal then focusing less on the academy and more on experienced players makes more sense. Each goal has different financial models and different strategies.
What Webber appears to have done is been caught between the two and has implemented tactics that haven’t met either goal.
As I said, we aren’t selling 20-30M quid worth of players each season and we’ve never survived a single season in the Prem under him. We sway between having lots of cash and having none. Our playing style changes depending on the manager. To me this all indicates we are no more stable as a club by having a Sporting Director, than when we went manager to manager and we’re far less successful on the pitch than under an MD.
So sure, he implemented one tactic (new training facilities) really well, but it hasn’t served a strategy or helped us meet a goal.
At the end of the day Webber’s legacy may be ‘the guy who upgraded the training facilities”. Which is fine if that’s why he was brought here.
My two (many) cents.
Dave
Criticism is justified – as he openly acknowledges – for some of Stuart Webber’s dealings.
However, I really believe you’re too reluctant to recognise the positives. Stuart inherited an awful situation, both in the club’s finances and its league position & prospects. His grasp of the financial challenges and appointment of Daniel Farke turned the tide for the club, just as David’s McNally’s equivalent actions had done in 2009.
Farke’s development of the young players we’d need to sell to steady the ship – esp Maddison, who’d never started a game under previous managers – was key. That wasn’t coincidence – it was Webber’s deliberate, thought-through plan. At the same time, Webber assembled on a shoestring a squad that Daniel could lead to a wholly unexpected promotion.
Fair-minded fans will assess Stuart’s time as a mix of success and failure, I imagine. But the successes go far beyond upgrading City’s training facilities.
Totally agree about the players we’ve sold David for peanuts it seems when you think what Webber wasted two seasons ago .
Every club has hits and misses with transfer activity. Chelsea spent a couple of hundred million pounds last season and finished 12th, below Brentford, Fulham and Crystal Palace. And well before Webber’s arrival, we had perhaps the most spectacular big-money flop of all, Ricky van Wolfswinkel, who looked better suited to the Southern League than the Premier League. More recently, the supposed wunderkind Tzolis has turned out to be anything but. The reality is that medium-sized clubs like Norwich will never be on a financial level to complete with the mega-rich elite of the Premiership. All we can hope for is to get promotion as often as possible and try to hang in there for as many relegation scraps as possible.
That has nothing to do with Norwich’s shortcomings. It is simply the way the super-clubs have used their financial muscle to create their own mini-league at the top, leaving the rest to survive as best they can. So far the signings this season seem to make a lot of sense, bringing in much-needed experience at minimal cost.
And the idea that for years Delia has been fending off a horde of big-time investors dying to pour vast sums into Norwich City is surrealistic. I don’t expect Mark Attanasio to become a money tree for City unless he can see long-term benefits for himself.
For some, it’s more fun to be in a promotion race fairly regularly than to be minnows in a sea of Premier League sharks who can spend more on one player than the cost of our entire squad.
So you’re gonna praise awebvers work in the summer and still berate the club for a lack of direction 🤷🏼♂️ Some of you guys need to get off the direction, what are we lecture and just enjoy being a City fan again. We’ve always been what we are now since I started watching in the late 80’s. Sure Webbers cocked plenty up since our second promotion, mostly spunking away millions on garbage, but he also had done a lot of good and will be gone soon. Get on with being a fan of what we are,, which never has and never will be a long established top tier side.
Hi Jinxy.
Upon reaching the top tier we spent the next two decades in it, or being promoted back into it. We won a cup, reached Europe, beat Bayern, and were realistic title contenders for the Premier League.
The idea that we could not spend more seasons in the top flight than not, is demonstrably false.
Dave
I lived through those years too, Dave, but the goalposts have shifted incredibly! The spending power of the owners of our rivals in the Premier League is many fa tors higher than when we were last successful members of the club. Even the likes of Brighton, Leeds, Leicester and Southampton (traditionally seen as being of similar size), not to mention ‘minnows’ Brentford and Bournemouth far outstrip our buying power.
More and more clubs (Forest are a good example) have traded themselves to buyers with far more wealth – it remains to be seen if they stick around for the long haul, or Forest crash back down. Leicester’s finances are a mess, following relegation and Wolves’ Chinese owners are struggling to balance the books within Financial Fair Play rules too.
I hope the change of ownership happens soon for us, but it is far from a guarantee of Premier League stability for us.
Good article though! 👍🏻