The Preview: Rotherham v Norwich City

How do you set about previewing a Norwich game these days? Especially against a modest opponent like Rotherham?

Do you caution against over-optimism, reminding yourself and your listeners that there’ll be bumps in the road – and that they’re likely to spring up just when the road seems smoothest?

Or do you ride the wave, listing all the good reasons to suppose our streak will continue?

Both would be reasonable, well-justified approaches. It’s a conundrum – and not the only one.

Do we bemoan the unfortunate loss of Josh Sargent, or highlight the confidence Adam Idah will have taken from his performance at Huddersfield and the obviously supportive culture David Wagner has instilled?

Before I try to make some sense of these questions, a note about timing.

I’m writing this with 24 hours to go before the transfer window closes (sorry, “slams shut”). Just as when I name Watford’s manager in a preview, I’ll count on our editor Gary to make any necessary late changes (I’m on it. Nowt so far – Ed).

In looking ahead to Saturday’s game, it’s hard not to focus on City – that’s the impact of the Wagner-Webber double-act this summer. But a word about our opponents first.

After four games Rotherham sit just above the relegation zone, similar to their finishing position last year. In fairness, they showed impressive resilience in clawing their way to safety last year; in the end, they’d have finished above Reading, even without the latter’s points deduction.

We should expect more resilience this time. Their last two league games have been defeats but only by the narrowest of margins: 2-1 at Sunderland, and the same result at home to a strong Leicester side.

Their spirit will be exemplified by a familiar face to us: Jordan Hugill, who’s started every league game this season.

Moreover, Rotherham have just delighted their fans by breaking the club’s transfer record and spending £1 million on fan favourite Sam Nombe from Exeter.

That said, Saturday should be about Norwich. Our start could hardly have been more encouraging: David Wagner and his coaches have produced a transformation from last season in the team’s hunger and purpose, and brought in players to make sure it’s sustained on the field. This looks much more than a flash in the pan.

I’m not one of those who forecast gloom and doom for the Canaries this season. Nor, though, did I foresee the fluency and creativity that’s been on show.

Looking at Wagner’s methods and his early signings, I expected us to be physically and mentally stronger than last year. But I nodded sagely at concerns we might struggle to create chances. I was badly wrong.

The idea that we needed a complete overhaul of players has been answered by visible improvement in the performance of some who were here last season, as well as the new blood. At risk of jinxing them, I’ll highlight Ben Gibson, Dimi Giannoulis (and of course the ill-fated Josh Sargent) as among those who’ve significantly raised their games.

Together with the blossoming of Gabbi Sara and the explosive introduction of Jon Rowe, with Borja Sainz to come, we look like a force to be reckoned with. 

On this occasion, I won’t curb my optimism, then. Of course, we may come a cropper but there are several reasons to believe we won’t.

One of those reasons is momentum. Winning is a good habit, even with fringe players in the Carabao Cup. Some will play down the significance of our midweek win at Bristol City, and/or of Rotherham’s 6-1 drubbing at Stoke. Yes, there are mitigating factors involved – but such results do colour the mood of a dressing room, especially if they’re part of a sequence.

The force is with us. Our players have the bit between their teeth, and are almost certainly looking forward to the game more than Rotherham’s are.

Against all that, it’s football and it’s Norwich City. We can’t ignore two reasons for worry:

• It looks too good. We’re the top scorers in the division; Rotherham are the biggest conceders. We’re on a winning run; they’re on a losing one. What could go wrong? (Answer: quite a lot.)
• My optimism, set against my prediction record.

Our unbeaten run will end some time, probably in an unexpected way. But I’m not giving way to doubt this time. Despite the reservations above, I’m betting it won’t be this weekend.

OTBC.